It's a bull market and nobody drinks anymore. | TCAF 255

Todd Sohn argues that ETFs have entered a new industrial phase: launch costs are so low that issuers can flood the market with products, and failure is cheap enough to ignore. He says 2026 is already on pace for roughly 900 new funds, with the biggest growth coming from thematic, leveraged, buffer, and option-income ETFs rather than plain-vanilla core funds. The host and Michael Batnick keep returning to the idea that distribution and branding matter as much as the idea itself, but Todd’s view is that the market is increasingly winner-take-most inside each niche.

He sees a real business model forming around lower-fee copycat products, especially in leveraged and thematic funds, and thinks incumbents will be forced to cut prices. He also expects prediction-market ETFs to become a big category if regulators allow them, because heavy favorites may have structural edge in betting lines. He says buffer and option-income products are being pulled by aging investors who want yield and downside protection, which makes the category sticky.

The episode also covers the unusual strength in sports-franchise valuations, the persistence of trillions in retail money-market cash, and why healthcare, energy, small caps, and crypto are each sending different signals. Todd’s broader point is that this is a healthy bull-market environment where capital keeps searching for new wrappers, new exposures, and new ways to package familiar risks.