Episode summary
The Man Who Called the Roaring 2020s | TCAF 254
Ask The Compound
· · Hosts: Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Guests: Ed Yardeni
Summary
Ed Yardeni argued that the post-pandemic backdrop still supports his “Roaring 2020s” thesis, and he said he does not expect a recession before the end of the decade. He tied that view to the economy’s resilience through lockdowns, inflation, higher rates, and geopolitical shocks, and said the market has repeatedly absorbed those stress tests without breaking the business cycle.
He also defended his bullish equity outlook, saying the S&P 500 can reach 8,250 by year-end and 10,000 by the end of 2029. In his framework, earnings are still the key driver: revenues are strong, profit margins are at record highs, and AI is improving productivity rather than creating a speculative earnings illusion. He said AI is evolutionary, not revolutionary, and argued that the earnings surge is grounded in real operating performance, not just multiple expansion.
On the market structure debate, Yardeni said today looks unlike 1999 because the rally is broadening beyond the mega-caps and because concentration is being offset by strength in the “impressive 493.” He acknowledged risks from high capex, bond yields, and possible Fed mistakes, but said private-market shock absorbers and market liquidity make a systemic blowup less likely than bears expect.
Key takeaways
- Ed Yardeni said he expects no recession before the end of 2029 and sees the “Roaring 2020s” still intact.
- Yardeni set a year-end S&P 500 target of 8,250 and repeated his longer-term target of 10,000 by 2029.
- He argued that AI is boosting productivity and margins, making this earnings surge more durable than a 1999-style bubble.
- Yardeni said the current rally is broadening beyond mega-cap tech, with the “impressive 493” participating more strongly.
- He sees bond yields in a 4% to 5% range as manageable and said market shock absorbers make systemic blowups less likely.
Notable quotes
“I think four to 5% is kind of the range that they should be at, but um you know, we could have a repeat of 2023”
“I think we're experiencing the most widely anticipated recession of all times that just ain't going to happen”
“AI is evolutionary evolutionary not revolutionary”
“I have the S&P 500 at 10,000 by by the end of the decade”
“The market's gotten cheaper on fabulous earnings momentum”
How the episode opens
So, what do you do? What do you do when you're not I know you're a Long Island like us. What do you do when you're not working? — Uh, it's a good question. Uh, go out go out to dinner with with my family and uh I used to play tennis, but uh my my eyesight on this side isn't what it used to be. So,
Okay. — Tennis is not my thing anymore. — What's your What are your go-to restaurants? — Um, we like Vietnamese. We like Japanese. We're at the north shore of Long Island. There's quite a few good — Kabuki for Japanese in Rosland. Yeah, that's really good.
Great spot, right? — That's a great spot. — No reservations though. — I know. That's Yeah. — Uh but we got our own Japanese place in Glen Cove. Okay. — Called Asian Fusion. And that's really good. — I think I know it. — It's called Asian Fusion. That's
Asian Fusion. It's across from the movie theater. — Yeah. — Is it in that old Chinese restaurant? — Remember that with the lanterns? — It's across from Laafigia if it across from um Staples or — Yeah. — You know what's great by you? Ja. Is it G or Gaia?
In Port Washington, the uh — Port Washington. I haven't gone there. — It's uh — Don't tell me it's Gaia. — No, — It's neither. — No, — They have the best place. Amazing. — The best uh what's the duck called? The Peeking Duck. — Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We've been going there recently. It's like the best duck place I've ever
I've never had anything like it. — Yeah, I know. Unbelievable. — Yeah. I used to My favorite place used to be in near the London airport, but this this tops it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- roaring 2020s outlook
- recession risk
- sp 500 target
- ai earnings bubble
- fed rates and bond vigilantes
Watch the episode
Watch “The Man Who Called the Roaring 2020s | TCAF 254” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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