Episode summary
China's Nov. 27 Deadline: America's Next Supply Shock? | Rodney Stevens
The David Lin Report
· · 41 min · Hosts: David Lin · Guests: Rodney Stevens
Summary
Rodney Stevens argues antimony is becoming a strategic bottleneck for defense and industry because the U.S. depends heavily on imports while China still controls a large share of supply. He says China’s temporary relaxation of its export restrictions to the U.S. expires on November 27, and that a renewed cutoff could trigger another price spike after antimony already more than doubled from last year.
He frames antimony as a small but critical market with limited recycling and rising demand from military uses, flame retardants, and some solar applications. Stevens says the world already faces about a 30,000 ton-per-year shortfall outside China, and he expects a multi-year bull market as new mines and smelting capacity take time to build.
For NSJ Antimony, he says the company has raised $4 million, is drilling in New Brunswick near historic Lake George ground, and should have assay results within about a month. He says the first goal is a drill intercept, then a follow-up program to define an economic ore body, with a five-year plan that could eventually support production or an acquisition.
Key takeaways
- Stevens says China’s November 27 export deadline could remove a military-use lifeline and reignite the antimony price rally.
- He argues the U.S. is highly exposed because 91% of its antimony was imported in 2025 and recycling covers only a small share.
- Stevens expects a long bull market in antimony because the market is tiny, recycling is limited, and new mines can take 5 years or more to permit and build.
- He says NSJ Antimony has raised $4 million, is drilling 11 holes, and should have assays within about a month.
- Stevens says smelting capacity is another bottleneck, so even new ore discoveries will need processing infrastructure to scale.
Notable quotes
“November 27th could be a critical deadline for America's defense sector. That's when China's temporary suspension of its antimony export ban to the US expires”
“the main use is obviously military use. Uh it's for primarily for flame retardant which is hence used in mil for military purposes”
“what we do know is that we've been talking to the US government who's hungry for antimony”
“If anything happens. Uh, but but you know what, David? I I don't think it will go that far”
“we're in a long-term bull market. We're probably in a a super cycle which could last over 5 years”
How the episode opens
November 27th could be a critical deadline for America's defense sector. That's when China's temporary suspension of its antimony export ban to the US expires. Antimony is essential for ammunition, military equipment, and a range of industrial applications.
And yet, America relies on imports for 91% of its supply, leaving a critical vulnerability in its defense supply chain. With antimony prices having more than doubled since last year, could renewed Chinese restrictions trigger yet another supply shock? Joining me now is Ronnie Stevens, CEO of NSJ Antimony, a project that along with others like it could soon be critical to national security.
This video is disseminated on behalf of NSJ Antimony. Welcome to the show, Ronnie. Good to see you.
Thanks, David. Hi, good to be on your show. — Good to have you. What is antimony and why is it so critical?
Uh well it's a critical mineral. It's a critical metal. Uh the main use is obviously military use.
Uh it's for primarily for flame retardant which is hence used in mil for military purposes but it's also growing. There's growing demand in the uh provalactic space as well um with solar. Um, so it's not uniquely a military metal, but um, there's growing demand for other uses as well.
um uh it has relatively been not so well known because we've been in a a kind of a bare market for a number of years uh due to well China's already h usually had sufficient reasonable supply but as uh as supplies kind of dwindled uh you know we kind of went into a crunch where there's been no investment in the sector for a number of years and uh and uh and And China came to the realization and sort of turned off the taps on its exports to m maintain what it what it had on its own and gave the world a shock like we need this antimony.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- antimony supply
- china export restrictions
- critical minerals prices
- mine development
- supply chain dependence
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NSJ Antimony Corp.
Watch the episode
Watch “China's Nov. 27 Deadline: America's Next Supply Shock? | Rodney Stevens” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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