Episode summary
Historic Market Implosion: Bigger Crash Or Rebound Next Week? | Gareth Soloway
The David Lin Report
· · 32 min · Hosts: David Lin · Guests: Gareth Soloway
Summary
Gareth Soloway argued that the latest selloff is less a broad-market collapse than a violent rotation out of tech and into defensives, with names like Nike, Clorox, and parts of healthcare, utilities, and energy holding up better. He said the S&P 500 still looks technically bullish as long as key trendlines hold, and he sees the index having upside potential toward just above 8,000 if the lower support zone survives.
He was much more cautious on the tech leaders that have been hit by heavy capex spending and weak earnings, saying Google, Oracle, ServiceNow, Intel, and CoreWeave are all showing either oversold conditions or deeper structural risk. Soloway said he is nibbling on beaten-down high-quality names for short-term bounces, but remains more skeptical of smaller, more levered stories like CoreWeave and of Micron, which he thinks still has downside over the next 12 to 18 months.
The biggest macro variable in his view is oil. Soloway said crude above $100 a barrel is squeezing consumers, inflation, and the Fed, and that the market likely needs oil back below $80 to regain real momentum. He also said Bitcoin, gold, and silver are being treated like risk assets in the current panic, though he remains longer-term bullish on all three, even as he expects more near-term downside and volatility.
Key takeaways
- Soloway said the S&P 500 remains technically bullish as long as its lower trendline holds, with upside potential to just above 8,000.
- He framed the tech plunge as rotation rather than total market failure, with defensives such as Nike, Clorox, utilities, and healthcare holding up better.
- Soloway said oil above $100 a barrel is now the key macro pressure point, and he wants crude back below $80 to relieve the market.
- He is selectively buying beaten-down quality names for rebounds, including Google and Oracle, but remains cautious on more levered stories like CoreWeave.
- Soloway expects Micron to keep falling and said Bitcoin could revisit 66,000 to 67,000 if 75,500 fails to hold.
- He said gold and silver are still attractive long term, but he would not be surprised to see gold near $3,500 in the next few weeks.
Notable quotes
“it wasn't everything that went down, right? And if you look at my screen here, you can see that consumer defensives were pretty much in the green”
“for me being in the defensives, I'm honestly rotating back into some of the beaten up names”
“the S&P is still technically bullish. And what I mean by that is we've had these two trend lines that have kind of kept the market in an uptrend”
“If oil goes up more, it's already breaking the consumer. It's now the AI trade that's starting to break”
“I think I think it's possible, but I think there's a whole different scenario here where you have 80% of the US public essentially feeling like they're already in a recession”
How the episode opens
Happy Halloween everybody. I'm dressed up as the Grim Reaper today because that's exactly how the market's been behaving. Killing your gains, especially if you've been in tech.
What an awful week it's been for tech. Google just lost $500 billion over the last 48 hours in market cap. Went down 12% after hours trading in Thursday after a disappointing earnings report.
Intel went down 30%. Nvidia down 5%. AMD down 10%.
Reddit down double digits. That's not really in the tech sector, but still. Gareth Soloway is going to help us explain exactly what's going on.
He's the president of Verified Investing and he's going to tell us whether or not this spookiness is going to continue past Halloween or are we going to get a big bounce on Monday? We'll find out. G, welcome back to the show.
Good to see you.
Hey, good to see the grim reaper here. It certainly was that type of week. David, thanks for having me back.
Thanks for have uh thanks for coming. Yeah. Uh you know, it's important to note that not everything got killed, so to speak.
Look, gold went down, silver went down. We'll talk about that. Bitcoin went down uh probably following tech, probably because of the Binance hack.
We can talk about that as well. Uh but I want to show my screen just for a minute here. This is the S&P 500 heat map.
And um importantly, I want to highlight the distinction between a broad market sell-off within the S&P and a rotation away from tech, which appears to be what happened in the last couple of days. Because it wasn't everything that went down, right? And if you look at my screen here, you can see that consumer defensives were pretty much in the green, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tech stock selloff
- buying opportunities
- oil and rates recession risks
- bitcoin crash outlook
- treasury yields and market recovery
Companies and tickers mentioned
- INTC
- MU
- Verified Investing
- Intel
- CoreWeave
- Micron
Watch the episode
Watch “Historic Market Implosion: Bigger Crash Or Rebound Next Week? | Gareth Soloway” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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