Episode summary
Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen
The David Lin Report
· · 35 min · Hosts: David Lin · Guests: Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Chris Vermeulen argues that the recent pullback in the 10-year yield, bonds, and the dollar is only a short-term countertrend move, not a durable peak in rates. He expects yields to resume higher, bonds to remain in a broader downtrend, and the rotation out of technology into defensives to continue in the near term. He also says his team exited NASDAQ exposure after the trend flipped down, while staying long the S&P 500.
On equities, Chris says the current selloff in QQQ could deepen if the 660 area breaks, with downside toward about 555. He rejects the idea that investors should simply buy every dip, especially if they use leverage, and says active traders need to step aside when price, momentum, and money flow weaken. He adds that healthcare looks stronger than utilities or staples because its longer-term trend and moving averages are still pointed up.
He is also bearish on gold and silver in the near term, calling them in a bear market on his daily-chart framework, with lower targets still in play. Oil, by contrast, could keep grinding higher toward 107 and then 120. On real estate, especially Canada, he expects a major correction and says that will eventually create opportunity for buyers with cash, but not yet.
Key takeaways
- Chris Vermeulen says the 10-year yield’s pullback is a short-term correction, not a confirmed peak, and he expects yields to move higher again.
- He says the NASDAQ trend has turned negative and his team exited QQQ/QLD two days ago to protect profits.
- He sees QQQ downside risk if 660 breaks, with a possible move toward about 555.
- Chris says gold and silver are still in bear markets on his daily-chart view, with lower targets still possible before a buyable bottom.
- He expects oil to trend up toward 107 and then 120, citing the Middle East backdrop and the current technical structure.
- He thinks Canadian and U.S. real estate will see a big correction, with the best buying opportunity coming later after prices reset.
Notable quotes
“I would say no. I would think on the short-term charts they have, which is something that we've been following”
“I think yields are still going to go a whole lot higher because the trend is still up. Bonds are in a clear downtrend”
“the trend actually changed uh today or yesterday on this on the NASDAQ. We're actually now have a negative trend”
“if on the QQQ uh what is this around 660 gets broken and it closes below it, it could come all the way back down to about 555 there”
“real estate's going to have a big correction. And it's going to be a huge opportunity for those who have dry gunpowder to invest”
How the episode opens
Real estate's going to have a a big correction and it's going to be a huge opportunity for those who have dry gunpowder to invest. But I mean, if you're invested in REITs, they drop like 60 70 80% during a bare market. REITs are not bare proof.
I will be buying looking to buy gold at 3600. I'll be looking to buy more at 3,100 and silver I'll be looking to buy as it drops to those levels. If on the QQQ around 660 gets broken and it could come all the way back down to about 555.
It's Friday, October 16th. We're back with Christopher Mulan, chief market strategist at the technical traders. Now on the agenda today, are investors rotating to defensive assets. The 10ear yield has apparently hit a peak according to some analysts. We'll find out if Chris agrees. And also defensive sectors have been catching a bit. Chris, welcome back to the show. Good to see you. Hey, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure.
Tech stocks are selling off. Uh the Korean Cosby has been selling off. We're not seeing July levels of sell-offs yet.
Uh although chip stocks are leading the charge downward. Micron here in North America is down about 20 25% since its peak. Now, the big question is whether or not bonds are back on the menu, so to speak.
The 10-year yield now sits below where it was a couple of days ago. In fact, all week uh bonds have been catching a bit and the 10-year is now sliding down to 30 years at 5.43. It was much higher previously.
Do you think that um well, we're going to talk about the bigger picture, but bonds in particular, people have asked have been telling me were asking me even the comments, have bond yields peaked?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- bond yields
- rotation out of tech stocks
- gold and silver downside
- oil price targets
- housing market correction
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TheTechnicalTraders.com
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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