Episode summary
‘It’s Not Because They Want to Be Friends’: Brilliant on What to Expect From the Trump-Xi Summit
Wall Street Week
· · Guests: Myron Brilliant
Summary
The postponed Trump-Xi summit is being framed less as a path to a big deal than as a way to stabilize a volatile U.S.-China relationship. Myron Brilliant said the economic track is relatively organized, with Vice-Premier He Lifeng, Secretary Bessent, and Ambassador Greer having held six or seven rounds of talks, but he argued that the political side is less prepared because the White House has been distracted by the war in Iran.
Brilliant said 2025 was defined by tariff escalation and China’s use of critical minerals and rare-earth choke points, and he thinks both sides now want to prevent a further deterioration. He does not expect a home run from the summit. Instead, he expects incremental deliverables such as more market access, more soybeans, and possibly Boeing planes, with stability itself the main objective.
He said Beijing believes it has “cracked the code” on Trump and is no longer trying to appease Washington. China wants guardrails on export controls, more clarity on tariffs, and may test whether Trump will deliver anything meaningful on Taiwan. Brilliant also said the summit could produce symbolic cooperation on AI safety, including possible red lines or protocols for advanced models.
Key takeaways
- Myron Brilliant said the economic talks are advanced, but the political infrastructure for a summit of this size has not been as deep or broad as it should be.
- He expects the U.S. to seek more soybeans, Boeing planes, and market access, while China pushes for limits on export controls and clearer tariff terms.
- Brilliant said China is no longer trying to appease Washington and instead is using a punch-back strategy it thinks fits Trump.
- He warned that any move on Taiwan would be a game changer, because Beijing would love a statement about peaceful unification.
- He sees the best-case outcome as incremental stability, not a breakthrough, with “singles” more likely than a home run.
Notable quotes
“-I think there's been a fair amount between the economic leaders, right? So Vice-Premier He Lifeng on the Chinese side, and his counterpart here, Secretary Bessent, and Ambassador Greer have had six or seven rounds of discussions”
“It's not because they want to be friends, but it's because each side recognizes that stability is in their self-interest”
“They think they've cracked the code on President Trump. They think they've, you know, they got a playbook”
“I hope not. That would be a game changer”
“I think they're going to be hard to get. One is they want guardrails around export controls”
How the episode opens
But we start with the postponed Beijing Summit between President Trump and President Xi, rescheduled because of a war in Iran that was supposed to be over by now. How much will it affect discussions between the two leaders, assuming that they happen as planned? Myron Brilliant is a senior counselor at the DGA-Albright Group and recently returned from China.
-I think there's been a fair amount between the economic leaders, right? So Vice-Premier He Lifeng on the Chinese side, and his counterpart here, Secretary Bessent, and Ambassador Greer have had six or seven rounds of discussions. So I think on that side, they understand where the guardrails are, what can be done.
There are some questions about how much can be done in areas like export controls. But I think I think the United States thinks they're going to get something on, you know, market access, more beef, more soybeans, maybe Boeing planes, something, progress in those kinds of areas. So I think that side of the equation is good.
The side that is less clear is the political side. As you suggested, summits of this nature with this high expectations tend to take months to prepare. With the president and the administration distracted by the war in the Middle East, it's not had the same level of political connectivity between, say, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his counterpart, Secretary of State Rubio.
There is dialogue, but I'm not sure the infrastructure of the system has been as deep and broad as you would expect of a summit of this nature. Westin: If you think about the wish list from the two sides, you just mentioned some of the things the United States would like, selling more soybeans, for example, Boeing planes or things like that. But this is the first meeting these two leaders, since they really had sort of a trade dispute, particularly over things like critical minerals.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- trump-xi summit
- u.s.-china relations
- tariff escalation
- geopolitical risk
- critical minerals
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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