The Dog Stars · Rotten Tomatoes score
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score to be Above 30, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's collapse was driven by the official release of a poor Rotten Tomatoes score for "The Dog Stars". On August 25, the film's critic score opened in the low 40% range, triggering an initial 19 percentage point drop in the contract price. The next day, as the score stabilized at 38% from 95 reviews and was widely reported, the market fell another 65 percentage points to 5.0%.
Before the reviews, the market had priced in a high probability of a positive critical reception. This sentiment culminated in an 11 percentage point spike to a peak of 96.0% on August 18, a move not explained by any specific reported development. Following the score's release, the price settled near zero with significant volume, reflecting conviction that the film would not achieve a high score.
- "Above 35" is probable, given the film's current 38% Tomatometer score.
- The 38% score may decline with additional reviews after the August 28 wide release.
- Unfavorable critical reception and historical data suggest a slight downward adjustment.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | 2.0% | 1.6% | The film's current 38% score and unfavorable reception make reaching 45% highly improbable. |
| Above 70 | 1.0% | 0.4% | The film's 38% score and unfavorable reception make reaching 70% extremely unlikely. |
| Above 50 | 1.0% | 0.4% | The current 38% score and negative critical reception suggest the film will not reach 50%. |
| Above 55 | 1.0% | 0.4% | The film's 38% score and unfavorable critical reception make reaching 55% highly improbable. |
| Above 65 | 1.0% | 0.4% | The current 38% score and negative critical reception indicate the film will not reach 65%. |
Current Context
Ridley Scott's "The Dog Stars" holds a low Rotten Tomatoes critic score. As of August 27, 2026, the film registers a 38% critic score from 95 reviews, placing it among the lowest-rated films directed by Scott [^][^][^]. Early critical reception has been unfavorable, with reviews describing it as a "listless apocalypse movie" and citing underwhelming scores prior to its wide release [^][^]. Pre-release fanfare was minimal, leading industry reports to suggest that studio 20th Century Studios (Disney) actively suppressed expectations for the film [^].
The film, a post-apocalyptic thriller, experienced production delays. Starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, and Guy Pearce, "The Dog Stars" is based on Peter Heller's 2012 novel [^][^][^]. Its domestic wide release is scheduled for August 28, 2026, following a limited release in France and Italy on August 26, 2026 [^][^][^]. The film was originally set for a March 27, 2026, release but was delayed by five months [^][^]. Critical opinion has been polarized; some reviewers commended its cinematography and introspective tone, while others critiqued its pacing, script, and tonal inconsistencies [^][^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 37
📈 August 27, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 59.0% to 76.0%
What happened: The 17.0 percentage point spike in "Above 37" for "The Dog Stars · Rotten Tomatoes score" on August 27, 2026, was primarily driven by the public disclosure and widespread reporting of the film's official Rotten Tomatoes score. The review embargo lifted on August 25-26, 2026, leading to entertainment news outlets reporting on August 26, 2026, that the film's score was between 38% and 42% [^]. On August 27, 2026, the film officially held a 38% Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes, directly validating the "Above 37" outcome [^]. Given the absence of specific social media activity, traditional news and official score release were the primary drivers.
Outcome: Above 40
📉 August 26, 2026: 74.0pp drop
Price decreased from 99.0% to 25.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was the widely reported Rotten Tomatoes score for "The Dog Stars" falling significantly below 40% on August 26, 2026. Multiple news outlets announced that the film's score had "crash-landed," with reports placing it around 38-44% or even as low as 34% [^][^][^][^]. This direct reporting of the film's poor critical reception, positioning it below the "Above 40" outcome, directly led the market price movement [^][^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver based on the available information.
Outcome: Above 50
📉 August 25, 2026: 30.0pp drop
Price decreased from 80.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market's 30.0 percentage point drop was the release of "The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes score, which opened in the low 40% range on August 25-26, 2026, and subsequently stabilized around 38% [^][^][^][^]. This official critical reception directly caused the market for an "Above 50" score to decline sharply. Leading up to this, initial social media reactions following a London premiere on August 20, 2026, had generated significant negative sentiment, frequently criticizing the screenplay and pacing [^][^][^][^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, as these earlier viral narratives built expectations for a low score, which were then confirmed by the official release.
Outcome: Above 85
📉 August 24, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 17.0% to 2.0%
What happened: The 15.0 percentage point drop on August 24, 2026, for "The Dog Stars · Rotten Tomatoes score" outcome "Above 85" was primarily driven by the emergence of early critical reviews indicating a low score for the film. While the initial aggregated Rotten Tomatoes score (42%-44%) was officially reported around August 25-26, 2026, the negative sentiment from individual early reviews likely circulated on August 24, making the "Above 85" outcome highly improbable [^]. Social media activity was generally reported as mixed ahead of the film's August 28, 2026 release, with no specific viral narrative or key figure identified as causing this significant price movement on the 24th [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise in relation to this market move.
Outcome: Above 55
📉 August 23, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 77.0% to 66.0%
What happened: The 11.0 percentage point drop on August 23, 2026, primarily reflects the ongoing aggregation of largely negative critical reviews for "The Dog Stars," causing its Rotten Tomatoes score to slide well below 55% in the days leading up to its August 28, 2026, release [^]. While a specific, sudden 11-point decline on that exact date is not explicitly documented, the film's reception has been overwhelmingly negative, with its Tomatometer score reaching 38% by August 27, 2026 [^]. This sustained negative critical reception made the "Above 55" outcome significantly less likely. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a given "Above X" contract, a YES resolution occurs if "The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes score is greater than X. A NO resolution occurs if the score is X or lower. Settlement for these markets is scheduled by August 31, 2026, with no specific special settlement conditions detailed in the provided information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 35 | $0.96 | $0.06 | 93% |
| Above 37 | $0.83 | $0.23 | 76% |
| Above 40 | $0.32 | $0.71 | 28% |
| Above 42 | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Above 45 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 50 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 55 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 60 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 65 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 70 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 75 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 80 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 85 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 90 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of August 27, 2026, Ridley Scott's film "The Dog Stars" holds a 38% Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes based on 103 reviews, with critics generally citing a weak screenplay that undercuts strong cinematography and lead performances, placing it among Scott's lowest-rated features [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets are actively trading with overwhelming sentiment favoring lower outcomes for the film [^][^][^]. While social media and early audience reactions are divided, with some praising its visual style, others criticize the pacing and familiar post-apocalyptic tropes ahead of its August 28, 2026, domestic release [^][^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 45PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality77Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality77Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 30Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 35Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality83Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality83Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 37Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 40Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.14
Above 42Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality84Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality84Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 50Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 55Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 60Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 65Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 70Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 75Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 80Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 85Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Above 90Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 27, 2026
6. How does the initial 38% Tomatometer score for 'The Dog Stars' compare to the final scores of Ridley Scott's other recent science fiction and historical epic films?
| The Dog Stars Tomatometer Score | 38% (as of August 27, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Highest Recent Scott Film Score | The Martian 91% [^][^][^] |
| Lowest Scott Score Since | Exodus: Gods and Kings 29% [^] |
Scott's other recent films garnered much higher ratings. Among Ridley Scott's recent historical and sci-fi films, scores include 'The Martian' at 91%, 'The Last Duel' at 85%, 'Gladiator II' at 70%, 'Alien: Covenant' at 65%, 'House of Gucci' at 62%, and 'Napoleon' at 58% [^][^][^]. The 38% score for 'The Dog Stars' is significantly below all of these listed films.
This score marks Scott's lowest in over a decade. The 38% Tomatometer score for 'The Dog Stars' represents Ridley Scott's lowest Rotten Tomatoes critic score since 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' (2014), which received 29% [^].
7. What are the most prevalent themes in the initial wave of critic reviews that account for the polarized reception of 'The Dog Stars'?
| Rotten Tomatoes Rating | 38% (as of August 27, 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Criticism | Mismatch between intimate narrative and violent action-thriller shifts [^] |
| Praised Elements | Cinematography and acting [^][^][^][^][^] |
Critics polarized over tonal shifts and unoriginal post-apocalyptic themes. The initial wave of reviews for 'The Dog Stars' indicates its mixed reception primarily resulted from a perceived disconnect between its intimate, character-driven narrative and sudden transitions into violent action-thriller tropes [^]. Reviewers specifically noted issues with tonal inconsistency, a lack of originality in its post-apocalyptic world, and excessive product placement [^][^][^]. The film's abrupt shifts into what some described as "cartoonish" or jarring violent action-thriller elements were a significant factor contributing to its uneven critical reception [^].
Despite criticisms, the film received praise for its technical execution. Reviewers generally lauded 'The Dog Stars' for its cinematography and the performances of its cast [^][^][^][^][^]. Reflecting its polarized reception, 'The Dog Stars' holds a 38% rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of August 27, 2026 [^][^].
8. Which major critics or publications have yet to release reviews, and how could their eventual scores impact the final Tomatometer percentage after August 28?
| Current Tomatometer Score | 38% (based on 103 critic reviews) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Wide Release Date | August 28, 2026 [^][^] |
| Prediction Market Sentiment | Unlikely to reach above 50% [^][^] |
The Dog Stars currently holds a low Tomatometer score. As of August 27, 2026, the film's Tomatometer stands at 38% based on 103 critic reviews [^][^]. While major publications such as The Australian, Financial Times, and The Hollywood Reporter have already contributed their critiques, a substantial volume of additional reviews from other major outlets is anticipated [^][^]. This expected influx will follow the film's wide theatrical release in the United States on August 28, 2026. The research does not specify which particular major critics or publications are still pending, beyond this general expectation [^].
Forthcoming reviews will likely not raise the score significantly. These anticipated reviews from various major outlets have the potential to either stabilize or alter the present 38% Tomatometer score [^]. Prediction markets tracking The Dog Stars' Tomatometer score are generally expected to conclude between August 31 and September 4, 2026. Current sentiment within these markets strongly suggests that lower scores are more probable, indicating it is highly improbable for the film to achieve a score exceeding 50% [^][^].
9. What historical data exists on score fluctuation for major studio films on Rotten Tomatoes between the first 100 reviews and the final tally?
| Score Trend | Often trends downward as more reviews are added [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Cause of Downward Trend | Early "first wave" reviews are more enthusiastic than general consensus [^][^][^] |
| RT Stabilization Method | Adjusts minimum review threshold to stabilize early numbers [^][^] |
Film scores on Rotten Tomatoes often fluctuate, usually decreasing over time. Major films frequently experience downward score adjustments as more reviews are submitted, particularly when initial "first wave" reviews demonstrate greater enthusiasm than the subsequent general critical consensus [^][^][^]. However, the provided research does not contain specific historical data detailing score fluctuations between the first 100 reviews and a film's final score tally.
Rotten Tomatoes implements measures to stabilize early film scores. To prevent dramatic score swings that could arise from a small sample of reviews, Rotten Tomatoes adjusts the minimum review threshold required for a film's score to populate. This mechanism aims to ensure a more representative critical assessment as the number of reviews grows [^][^].
10. What evidence from the marketing campaign supports reports that 20th Century Studios suppressed expectations for 'The Dog Stars'?
| Release Timing | Late-summer [^] |
|---|---|
| Advance Promotion | Minimal fanfare [^] |
| Premiere Strategy | No U.S. red carpet premiere [^] |
20th Century Studios adopted a marketing strategy to manage 'The Dog Stars' expectations. Industry observers noted that the studio appeared to actively manage expectations for its film 'The Dog Stars' through a specific marketing approach. This strategy included several tactics aimed at limiting widespread promotion and visibility for the movie [^].
Several tactics limited the film's promotion and public visibility. Identified key tactics involved a late-summer release, which is often a less competitive period for major film launches, along with minimal advance fanfare. Opportunities for press engagement with the film's stars were limited, and the studio notably chose not to hold a U.S. red carpet premiere, further reducing the film's public profile. Additionally, a "misleading" trailer was reportedly used as part of this marketing strategy [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Dog Stars is scheduled for a wide theatrical release in the United States on August 28, 2026, by 20th Century Studios [^] [^] [^] [^] . Ahead of its release, the film has received negative critical reception and "sliding" Rotten Tomatoes scores [^]. As of August 27, 2026, its Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score stands at 38% [^]. Early reviews describe the film as "listless" and one of Ridley Scott's weaker works [^][^].
The film was originally slated for a March 27, 2026 release but was delayed to August 2026 [^] . This move was speculated by some media outlets to indicate a potential lack of confidence in its commercial prospects [^]. Bullish sentiment prior to release centered on Ridley Scott's directorial pedigree and a high-profile ensemble cast [^]. Conversely, bearish sentiment has been driven by poor critical reception and its late-summer release window, often considered unfavorable for major blockbusters [^]. A prediction market on Polynion in June 2026 showed a 58% "Yes" chance for the film to gross over $50 million in its domestic opening weekend [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 07, 2026
- Closes: August 31, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Dog Stars is scheduled for a wide theatrical release in the United States on August 28, 2026, by 20th Century Studios [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Ahead of its release, the film has received negative critical reception and "sliding" Rotten Tomatoes scores [^] .
- Trigger: As of August 27, 2026, its Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score stands at 38% [^] .
- Trigger: Early reviews describe the film as "listless" and one of Ridley Scott's weaker works [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-END-93: NO (Aug 17, 2026)
- KXRT-END-95: NO (Aug 17, 2026)
- KXRT-END-89: NO (Aug 17, 2026)
- KXRT-END-88: NO (Aug 17, 2026)
- KXRT-END-86: NO (Aug 17, 2026)
