Short Answer

Pete Hegseth is likely to face impeachment before April 1, 2027, driven by an imminent forced House vote in the lame-duck session and confirmed Democratic House control beginning in January 2027. The market prices this outcome at 88.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's sharp repricing in early November was driven by an escalating series of news reports solidifying the political path to impeachment in the House. The initial catalyst was a 21.0 percentage point spike on November 5, caused by news that Representative Thomas Massie's eight-article privileged impeachment resolution was expected to be reintroduced imminently. This was followed by a 10.0 point jump on November 6 after reports emerged that Hakeem Jeffries, the expected incoming House speaker, was a "hard yes" on impeachment. The move toward a near-certainty price was cemented on November 8 with a 15.0 point spike to 80.0%, which followed a convergence of reports, including an Axios story suggesting GOP leaders expected enough defections to ensure passage.
This rapid upward trend reflects market conviction in a successful House vote. Related Kalshi contracts priced a House vote before January 1, 2027 at approximately 90%, while Polymarket's contract for impeachment by June 30, 2027 traded around 75-79%. The provided context does not account for an 18.0 point spike on November 7, as key media reports are dated November 8 or later. Likewise, no specific driver was identified for a 9.0 point price drop on November 2.
  • Impeachment before April 1, 2027, is highly probable with confirmed Democratic House control.
  • A mandated House vote increases impeachment likelihood before January 1, 2027.
  • Hakeem Jeffries' public endorsement reinforces impeachment prospects in the incoming House.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Nov 21, 2026 49.0% 56.1% Rep. Massie's reintroduction of an impeachment resolution mandates a House vote within two legislative days.
Before Jan 1, 2027 74.0% 74.4% A forced House vote on impeachment in the lame-duck session increases likelihood before January 1, 2027.
Before Apr 1, 2027 88.0% 86.3% The confirmed Democratic House control and Hakeem Jeffries's endorsement solidify impeachment by April 1, 2027.
Before Jul 1, 2027 85.0% 86.3% Strong political alignment for impeachment in the incoming Democratic House reinforces likelihood by July 1, 2027.

Current Context

Prediction markets indicate high probability for Pete Hegseth's impeachment. As of November 9, 2026, Kalshi priced Hegseth impeachment before July 1, 2027 at 84% [1]. A separate Kalshi contract for a House vote on impeachment before January 1, 2027 stood at approximately 90% [2]. Polymarket's contract for impeachment by June 30, 2027, registered around 75-79% Yes [3][4]. Resolution for this Polymarket contract requires only House approval of one or more articles, not Senate trial or conviction [3][4].
Impeachment efforts face procedural hurdles despite growing political support. Representative Thomas Massie introduced an eight-article resolution alleging violations of the War Powers Resolution, unauthorized military action, and broader abuses of office [5][6]. House Republicans previously delayed this resolution when they adjourned early in September [7]. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly endorsed impeachment as a "hard yes" [8][9][10]. President Trump publicly defended Hegseth and stated his intention to keep him [8]. While Democratic control of the House after January 3, 2027, would simplify hearings, subpoenas, and renewed impeachment proceedings [11][12][13], Senate removal still requires 67 votes and significant Republican support [10][11].
Hegseth's Cabinet departure is distinct and highly probable. Prediction market reporting placed Hegseth around 57-64% to be the next Cabinet member to leave [11][14][15]. This suggests resignation or firing may be more plausible outcomes than formal Senate removal [11].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  2. 2Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3Pete Hegseth impeached by...?polymarket.com
  4. 4Pete Hegseth impeached by...?polymarket.com
  5. 5Congress returns for crowded lame-duck session as...abcnews.com
  6. 6Rep. Thomas Massie forcing vote on Pete Hegseth's impeachment | ABC Audio Digital Syndicationdigital.abcaudio.com
  7. 7House to adjourn early, stave off Hegseth impeachment vote - ABC17NEWSabc17news.com
  8. 8Trump defends Hegseth ahead of expected impeachment...cnn.com
  9. 9Hakeem Jeffries supports impeachment of Pete Hegseth: ‘He has got to go’ | Trump administration | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  10. 10Top House Democrat 'a hard yes' on impeaching Hegsethbbc.com
  11. 11Impeachment, Hegseth and the 2028 Racepredictit.org
  12. 12House poised to impeach Pete Hegseth after GOP midterm defeataxios.com
  13. 13Democrats Prepare Hegseth Investigations If They Win Congress - Great America News Deskgreatamericanewsdesk.com
  14. 14Secretary of Defense Predictions: Pete Hegsout Out?deadspin.com
  15. 15Hegseth's cabinet exit odds hit 57% after midtermsnews.kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before Nov 21, 2026

📈 November 09, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 52.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point price spike was the traditional news and legislative developments culminating on November 9, 2026. On that date, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) formally forced a House vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, introducing eight articles of impeachment [1]. This action immediately followed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' public declaration on November 8, 2026, that he was a "hard yes" on impeaching Hegseth, solidifying Democratic intent after their midterm election victory [2]. While Pete Hegseth posted a defiant video on X on November 5, 2026, labeling the effort a "sham" [3], social media activity was a contributing accelerant to the ongoing narrative rather than the primary cause of the immediate price spike. The combination of legislative action and strong political endorsement directly drove the market's re-evaluation of impeachment probability.

Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027

📈 November 08, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 65.0% to 80.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point price spike on November 8, 2026, was a convergence of traditional news reports indicating a higher probability of Pete Hegseth's impeachment [1][4][5][6][7]. An Axios report suggested GOP leaders expected sufficient defections, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly endorsed impeachment, and Representative Massie's imminent effort to force a House vote became prominent [1][4][5][8][7]. These developments, addressing key uncertainties for a successful House vote, collectively increased the market's perceived likelihood of impeachment [4][5][8][7]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, rapidly disseminating these significant political news items rather than being the primary source or driver of the market movement.

📈 November 07, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 50.0% to 68.0%

What happened: The provided information indicates that all significant news and statements regarding Pete Hegseth's potential impeachment, including reports from Axios [1], The Guardian [5], BBC [8], and ABC News [9], were published on November 8 or 9, 2026. This timing places them after the 18.0 percentage point price spike observed on November 7, 2026. Therefore, neither the reported social media activity nor traditional news was the primary driver of this specific market movement. Based on the available data, social media was irrelevant to the price spike as it lagged the event.

📈 November 06, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price spike on November 6, 2026, was the increasing certainty of a successful impeachment vote in the House following the midterm elections. Shortly after the market movement, news emerged that Hakeem Jeffries, the expected incoming House speaker, was a "hard yes" on impeaching Hegseth, with Democrats securing 254 seats, exceeding the 218-vote threshold [8]. This was reinforced by reports that House Republican leaders anticipated enough GOP defections to allow impeachment [1]. No specific social media activity was identified as a primary driver; the movement appears linked to traditional news reporting of significant political developments.

📈 November 05, 2026: 21.0pp spike

Price increased from 19.0% to 40.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 21.0 percentage point price spike on November 05, 2026, was the news cycle surrounding the imminent reintroduction of Representative Thomas Massie's impeachment resolution against Pete Hegseth [10]. Reports indicated Massie's eight-article privileged resolution was expected to be reintroduced as early as November 9, triggering a two-day clock for a House floor vote [10][11]. This development was further bolstered by multiple Republican sources telling CNN they anticipated the impeachment resolution would pass in the lame-duck House [10][12][13]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver for this movement, as no specific posts or viral narratives from key figures were mentioned as leading or coinciding with the price spike in the provided data.
Sources (13)
  1. 1House poised to impeach Pete Hegseth after GOP midterm defeataxios.com
  2. 2Jeffries Backs Impeaching Hegseth as Democrats Push for...nytimes.com
  3. 3Hegseth prepares for his next battle: Impeachmentms.now
  4. 4This week: Lame duck kicks off with Hegesth impeachment effort - Roll Callrollcall.com
  5. 5Hakeem Jeffries supports impeachment of Pete Hegseth: ‘He has got to go’ | Trump administration | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  6. 6Report of GOP defections toward impeaching Hegseth lifts bets he leaves by year-end · Mantisreadmantis.com
  7. 7House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says he's a 'hard...nbcnews.com
  8. 8Top Democrat Hakeem Jeffries 'a hard yes' on impeaching Pete Hegsethbbc.com
  9. 9Congress returns for crowded lame-duck session as Hegseth impeachment, government funding deadline loom - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  10. 10Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
  11. 11Hegseth to Face Impeachment Vote as Early as Next Week (1)news.bgov.com
  12. 12Pete Hegseth says he will fight impeachment, defying calls to resignusatoday.com
  13. 13‘Knives out’: Will Congress impeach Pete Hegseth after GOP midterms loss? | US Midterm Elections 2026 News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on whether Pete Hegseth is impeached. A "Yes" outcome triggers if Pete Hegseth is impeached before July 1, 2027. Conversely, a "No" outcome triggers if he is not impeached by that deadline. The provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Nov 21, 2026 $0.58 $0.45 49%
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.75 $0.27 74%
Before Apr 1, 2027 $0.84 $0.18 88%
Before Jul 1, 2027 $0.85 $0.16 85%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets indicate a high probability (73-90%) that the House will formally impeach Pete Hegseth by early 2027 [1][2][3][4]. Rep. Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth for alleged constitutional violations, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries declared on November 8, 2026, that he is a 'hard yes' on impeachment [5][6][7][8][9][10]. However, Hegseth called the effort a 'sham' on November 6, 2026, and President Trump defended him on November 5, 2026, stating his intent to keep him; even if impeached, prediction markets and analysts consider Senate conviction and removal from office highly unlikely [5][10][11][12][13].

Sources (13)
  1. 1Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  2. 2Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-june-30polymarket.com
  4. 4Pete Hegseth impeached by...?polymarket.com
  5. 5House poised to impeach Pete Hegseth after GOP midterm defeataxios.com
  6. 6Rep. Thomas Massie forcing vote on Pete Hegseth's impeachment | ABC Audio Digital Syndicationdigital.abcaudio.com
  7. 7House to adjourn early, stave off Hegseth impeachment vote - ABC17NEWSabc17news.com
  8. 8House recesses early as Thomas Massie pushes Hegseth impeachmentbostonglobe.com
  9. 9Hakeem Jeffries supports impeachment of Pete Hegseth: ‘He has got to go’ | Trump administration | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  10. 10Hakeem Jeffries says he's a 'hard yes' to impeach Hegseththehill.com
  11. 11Secretary of Defense Predictions: Pete Hegsout Out?deadspin.com
  12. 12Hegseth's cabinet exit odds hit 57% after midtermsnews.kalshi.com
  13. 13Pete Hegseth Prediction Markets: Impeachment Odds Increasethelines.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good

Largest single print on KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27JUL01 carried 67% of its $3,114 tape (window is 39% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score67Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
71Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27JUL01 carried 67% of its $3,114 tape (window is 39% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
73Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

4 contracts · worst first

Before Nov 21, 202619
Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 17.0% of price over 14 traded bars

Before Apr 1, 202778
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Before Jan 1, 202778
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 4.7% of price over 23 traded bars

Before Jul 1, 202786
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.2% of price over 12 traded bars

24h traded notional $7,827 · 24h
Move quality
83Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

4 contracts · worst first

Before Apr 1, 202775
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Before Jan 1, 202784
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Before Jul 1, 2027—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Before Nov 21, 2026—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first

Before Apr 1, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jul 1, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jan 1, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Nov 21, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
67Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 77 (notional-weighted across 4 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.2c slippage (~2% of a 74c contract)

$1,000 order: 2.7c slippage (~4% of a 74c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before Apr 1, 202778Market scoreLiquidity78Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why 78
Liquidity
78 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jul 1, 202786Market scoreLiquidity86Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 86
Liquidity
86 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.2% of price over 12 traded bars

24h traded notional $7,827 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jan 1, 2027Primary80Market scoreLiquidity78Move quality84Rule clarity100
Why 80
Liquidity
78 · Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 4.7% of price over 23 traded bars

Move quality
84 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Nov 21, 202619Market scoreLiquidity19Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 19
Liquidity
19 · Very thin · high confidence

Typical bar range 17.0% of price over 14 traded bars

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 9, 2026

6. How might a change in House control after January 3, 2027, impact the timeline and procedure for impeaching Pete Hegseth?

Votes needed for current House majority3 [1][2]
Date of Democratic House controlJanuary 3, 2027 [3][4][5][1][2]
Impeachment vote statusNo House vote on any Hegseth impeachment article has occurred [4][1][2]
As of November 9, 2026, no House vote has taken place on any impeachment article for Pete Hegseth [4][1][2]. While Rep. Thomas Massie plans to reintroduce a privileged resolution requiring action within two legislative days [4][1][2], Democrats currently hold 214 seats and require three additional votes for a 217-vote majority [1][2]. Any impeachment articles previously filed by Rep. Yassamin Ansari in April 2026 and Rep. Shri Thanedar in December 2025 will expire with the conclusion of the 119th Congress [3][2].
Democratic control of the House will significantly alter impeachment dynamics after January 3, 2027. This significant shift is anticipated when Democrats are projected to assume control of the House, following their victory in the November 3, 2026 midterms [3][4][5][1][2]. This change will enable Democrats to impeach Hegseth with a simple majority, eliminating the need for Republican support [3][4][5][1][2]. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next Speaker, has publicly stated his strong support for impeachment [3][4][2]. Any previously filed impeachment articles would need to be refiled in January 2027 [3][2].
The likelihood of impeachment increases substantially with the upcoming procedural shift. The Democratic takeover of the House on January 3, 2027, is expected to substantially increase the likelihood of impeachment, a trend reflected in rising market odds for dates post-January [6][7]. This procedural shift would allow the impeachment process to advance without the current legislative hurdles posed by the existing House composition.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Hegseth Impeachment Vote: 217 House Votes Needed to...aroundprague.cz
  2. 2Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
  3. 3Hegseth impeachment: articles filed, no vote yetnacionale.com
  4. 4Hegseth Impeachment Vote: Jeffries a 'Hard Yes'consensusdaily.com
  5. 52026 Midterms Post-Election Federal Outlookgtlaw.com
  6. 6Secretary of Defense Predictions: Pete Hegsout Out?deadspin.com
  7. 7Will Pete Hegseth Be Impeached?next.io

7. What is the legal and historical precedent for the articles of impeachment filed by Representative Thomas Massie against Hegseth?

Date of Impeachment ResolutionSeptember 15, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Previous Cabinet Secretary ImpeachmentsTwo [5][6][7][8]
Prediction Market Impeachment Probability65% to 84% by July 1, 2027 [4][9][10][11]
Representative Thomas Massie initiated impeachment proceedings against Secretary Hegseth. On September 15, 2026, Representative Massie introduced a resolution containing eight articles of impeachment against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth [1][2][3][4]. The primary allegations in these articles include violations of the War Powers Resolution of 1973 concerning conflicts in Iran and Yemen, conducting unauthorized extrajudicial killings, suppressing free speech, and the unauthorized kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro [1][3][4][12].
Impeaching Cabinet secretaries is historically infrequent in the U.S. Only two prior instances exist of Cabinet secretaries facing impeachment [5][6][7][8]. The first was Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876, who was impeached for corruption but later acquitted [5][6][7][8]. More recently, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas was impeached in 2024 for policy disputes, with the charges subsequently dismissed by the Senate [5][6][7][8].
Prediction markets suggest a high likelihood of Hegseth's impeachment. As of November 9, 2026, prediction markets indicate a significant probability, ranging from 65% to 84%, that Pete Hegseth will be impeached by the House of Representatives before July 1, 2027 [4][9][10][11].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Rep. Massie Forces Vote to Impeach Secretary of Defense...massie.house.gov
  2. 2Impeaching Peter Brian Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, for...massie.house.gov
  3. 3Hegseth Impeachment Vote: Jeffries a 'Hard Yes'consensusdaily.com
  4. 4Hegseth impeachment: articles filed, no vote yetnacionale.com
  5. 5Congressional Recordcongress.gov
  6. 6https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R46013.web.htmlcongress.gov
  7. 7U.S. Senate: About Impeachment | Impeachment Casessenate.gov
  8. 8U.S. Senate: Impeachment Trial of Secretary of War William Belknap, 1876senate.gov
  9. 9Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  10. 10Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?streetspread.com
  11. 11Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  12. 12Will Pete Hegseth Be Impeached?allsides.com

8. How do the political strategies of Hakeem Jeffries and Donald Trump compare in their efforts to sway congressional votes on Hegseth's impeachment?

Jeffries Impeachment CommitmentNovember 8, 2026 [1][2][3]
Impeachment Probability (before July 1, 2027)83%–84% [4][5]
Resolution Vote TimelineWithin two legislative days after notice [6][7][2]
Hakeem Jeffries actively promotes impeachment, aiming for bipartisan support. He publicly declared himself a "hard yes" to Pete Hegseth's impeachment on November 8, 2026, anticipating "incredibly strong support" among House Democrats [1][2][3]. Jeffries' political strategy is designed to maximize cross-party vote accumulation for the impeachment effort [7][8][9][2]. The immediate House vote on Thomas Massie’s proposed resolution, which includes eight impeachment articles, would occur under the existing Republican majority during the lame-duck session, and as a privileged resolution, it must be taken up within two legislative days after notice [6][7][2].
Donald Trump defends Hegseth, working to maintain party loyalty. He publicly defended Pete Hegseth, stating that Hegseth was doing a "fantastic job" and that he intended to keep him, despite reports that allies believed Hegseth’s position was under review [7][9][2]. Trump's strategic objective is to minimize Republican defections and protect the political meaning of loyalty to his administration [7][8][9][2]. This vote is expected to proceed even though Democrats won control of both chambers in the November 3, 2026 midterms and would assume power in January [6][7]. Prediction-market snapshots place the probability of formal impeachment before July 1, 2027, at roughly 83%–84% [4][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Hakeem Jeffries supports impeachment of Pete Hegseththeguardian.com
  2. 2'I'm a hard yes': Hakeem Jeffries announces support for...abcnews.com
  3. 3House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says he's a 'hard...nbcnews.com
  4. 4Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  5. 5Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Jeffries backs impeaching Hegseth as Democrats push for...inquirer.com
  7. 7Jeffries Backs Republican-Led Hegseth Impeachment Effortnewsweek.com
  8. 8Hegseth Is the New Rumsfeldforeignpolicy.com
  9. 9Trump team interprets midterms debacle as a cue to go...cnn.com

9. What public datasets are available to track the whip count and declared positions of House members on the Hegseth impeachment vote?

Comprehensive Whip CountNot publicly available for Hegseth impeachment vote [1][2]
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' Position'Hard yes' on Hegseth resolution (announced November 8) [3][4][5]
Impeachment Vote StatusPre-vote; no House vote occurred as of November 9, 2026 [2][6][3][7]
Public datasets lack comprehensive whip counts for Hegseth impeachment. Public datasets do not offer a comprehensive whip count or verified member positions regarding the Hegseth impeachment vote, with available information primarily consisting of individual reported declarations rather than a full tally [1][2]. As of November 9, 2026, the Hegseth impeachment effort remained pre-vote, and no House vote had yet occurred [2][6][3][7]. The primary legal and procedural context stems from the September 15 Congressional Record, which detailed the privileged resolution and eight proposed articles, with the September 16 record noting an expected vote being avoided [8][9].
Individual declarations reveal some members' positions on impeachment. Among the publicly documented declarations, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced on November 8 that he was "a hard yes on the Hegseth resolution" [3][4][5]. Other reported positions include departing Rep. Don Bacon stating he was undecided, and Rep. Byron Donalds indicating he would not vote to impeach [1][2].
Prediction markets offer expectations, not confirmed member positions. While Kalshi listed a market on the number of House members who would vote to impeach Hegseth and offers related datasets, these resources track market expectations and prices, not verified member positions [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1House poised to impeach Pete Hegseth after GOP midterm...axios.com
  2. 2Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
  3. 3This week: Lame duck kicks off with Hegesth impeachment...rollcall.com
  4. 4'I'm a hard yes': Hakeem Jeffries announces support for...abc7ny.com
  5. 5Top House Democrat 'a hard yes' on impeaching Hegsethbbc.com
  6. 6Hegseth impeachment: articles filed, no vote yetnacionale.com
  7. 7Congress returns for crowded lame-duck session as...abcnews.com
  8. 8Congressional Recordcongress.gov
  9. 9Congressional Record, Volume 172 Issue 146...govinfo.gov
  10. 10Will Pete Hegseth be… (KXHEGSETHIMPEACH) odds | Kalshi Eyekalshieye.com
  11. 11Congress Prediction Markets & Legislative Odds | Kalshikalshi.com
  12. 12Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com

10. What factors could lead Pete Hegseth to resign before a formal House impeachment vote, and how do prediction markets price this alternative outcome?

Impeachment Process ImpactWould halt if Hegseth resigns (Rep. Thomas Massie) [1]
Hegseth's Job Security StatusTrump adviser states 'Hegseth is definitely on thin ice' [2]
Probability of Hegseth's Departure (before Jan 1, 2027)Kalshi market surged to 43% [3]
Hegseth's resignation would immediately halt the impeachment process. Representative Thomas Massie has indicated he would cease his impeachment efforts if Pete Hegseth resigns [1]. Several factors suggest Hegseth's position is precarious, with President Trump reportedly consulting advisers about Hegseth's future following Republican midterm losses [2]. White House aides have also discussed attributing election setbacks to Hegseth and other military leaders [2], and a Trump adviser noted Hegseth is "definitely on thin ice" [2]. Historically, Defense Secretary William Belknap resigned in 1876 before a House impeachment vote, demonstrating a precedent for cabinet officials facing such proceedings [4].
Prediction markets indicate a significant chance of Hegseth's early departure. These markets currently price a meaningful probability of Hegseth leaving his role, through either resignation or firing, before a formal House impeachment vote occurs. For instance, a Kalshi market asking "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Before Jul 1, 2027" is priced at approximately 84% for 'Yes' [5]. This implicitly suggests about a 16% probability that Hegseth resigns or is removed from office prior to an impeachment vote [5]. Another Kalshi market, focused on Hegseth being out as Secretary of Defense before January 1, 2027 (covering resignation or firing), saw its contract price rise to 43¢, reflecting a substantial probability of his departure before the next Congress convenes [3]. Similarly, the Public.com prediction market shows its 'Before Jan 1, 2027' contract at 69¢, indicating a 67% probability of his departure [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Why anti-Trump Republican Thomas Massie wants Pete...m.economictimes.com
  2. 2Will Pete Hegseth Be Impeached?allsides.com
  3. 3Secretary of Defense Predictions: Pete Hegsout Out?deadspin.com
  4. 4Why Trump ally Pete Hegseth is on 'thin ice' in his own partysbs.com.au
  5. 5Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  6. 6Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction markets indicate a high probability for impeachment. Kalshi prices Hegseth's impeachment before July 1, 2027, at 84% (Yes at 84¢), while Polymarket shows 75-80% for the June 30, 2027, deadline [1][2][3][4][5]. A House vote on impeachment carries a 90% probability before November 21, 2026, on Kalshi [6]. Rep. Thomas Massie introduced an eight-article privileged impeachment resolution on September 15, 2026, and plans to reintroduce it immediately when the House returns on November 9, 2026 [7][8][9][10][11][12][5]. House rules mandate consideration within two legislative days [8][11][12][5]. The House adjourned on September 16, 2026, one day before a scheduled impeachment vote [9][10][11][13].
Democratic control of the House, secured in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, is a significant driver, largely attributed to backlash against the unpopular Iran war [14][15][16][4][5][17]. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly endorsed impeachment as a 'hard yes' [14][15][16][4][5][17]. Democrats are positioned to control proceedings in the new Congress starting January 3, 2027 [14][15][16][4][5][17]. Impeachment charges cite violations of the War Powers Resolution by continuing the Iran war beyond 60 days without authorization, ordering extrajudicial killings of over 220 alleged drug traffickers, the February 28, 2026, missile strike on a Minab elementary school killing over 150 people including 120 children, seizing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro without constitutional authority, and retaliating against critics for exercising free speech [7][9][18][12][19]. The Iran war, which began February 28, 2026, has cost over $42 billion and continued past the 60-day War Powers Resolution limit [9][18][19].
While House impeachment requires only a simple majority, Senate conviction and removal requires a two-thirds vote (67 senators) [8][20][21][17][22]. There is no current sign of a two-thirds Senate majority for conviction, and the Senate could quickly dismiss articles without a full trial [8][20][21][17][22]. President Trump has publicly supported Hegseth [15][20][16][23][5]. However, White House discussions about Hegseth's position have intensified after the midterm losses, raising the possibility Trump may fire Hegseth in the lame-duck period (before January 3, 2027) to avoid impeachment [15][20][16][23][5]. Such an action would resolve prediction markets to 'No' [5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 28, 2026
  • Closes: July 01, 2027
Sources (23)
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  2. 2Will Pete Hegseth be impeached? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3Will Pete Hegseth be impeached Odds - Prediction Tickerpredictionticker.com
  4. 4Pete Hegseth impeached by...?polymarket.com
  5. 5Pete Hegseth impeached by...?polymarket.com
  6. 6Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  7. 7Pete Hegseth faces impeachment vote. Trump, RFK Jr. next?usatoday.com
  8. 8How the midterms changed the math on Hegseth impeachment potential | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  9. 9Timeline: from Hegseth's confirmation to the impeachment resolutionimpeachpetehegseth.org
  10. 10Facing Hegseth impeachment vote, House Republicans bail out early until November | National/World | centraloregondaily.comcentraloregondaily.com
  11. 11House to adjourn early, stave off Hegseth impeachment vote - ABC17NEWSabc17news.com
  12. 12Rep. Thomas Massie forcing vote on Pete Hegseth's impeachment | ABC Audio Digital Syndicationdigital.abcaudio.com
  13. 13House recesses early as Thomas Massie pushes Hegseth impeachmentbostonglobe.com
  14. 14Hegseth's cabinet exit odds hit 57% after midtermsnews.kalshi.com
  15. 15Why Pete Hegseth could fall through "thin ice"axios.com
  16. 16Hegseth fights for his future — again - POLITICOpolitico.com
  17. 17Democrats Prepare Hegseth Investigations If They Win Congress - Great America News Deskgreatamericanewsdesk.com
  18. 18Hegseth Likely to Face Impeachment on War Powers and War Crimes Chargesforeignpolicy.com
  19. 19U.S. Republican lawmaker moves to impeach Hegseth over Iran war-Xinhuaenglish.news.cn
  20. 20Analysis: Hegseth’s ‘fight, fight, fight’ video pours fuel on impeachment flamesedition.cnn.com
  21. 21Could Pete Hegseth be Replaced? Republican Demands Change After Top Army Oustings - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  22. 22Jeffries Vows to Oust Hegseth and Patel From Trump Adminpatriotmomdigest.com
  23. 23Pete Hegseth - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org