Topic tracker · Sports

Professional Basketball Game

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 37 so far (0 live, 37 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Professional Basketball Game markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated June 2, 2026

Series history

Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.

MarketClosedModel vs marketActions
Game 1: New York at San Antonio June 18, 2026 61.3% vs 64.0%
Game 5: San Antonio at Oklahoma City June 10, 2026 61.4% vs 62.0%
Game 4: New York at Cleveland June 9, 2026 36.6% vs 44.0%
Game 4: Oklahoma City at San Antonio June 8, 2026 55.2% vs 58.0%
Game 3: New York at Cleveland June 7, 2026 51.0% vs 56.0%
Game 3: Oklahoma City at San Antonio June 6, 2026 56.7% vs 55.0%
Game 2: Cleveland at New York June 5, 2026 67.8% vs 65.0%
Game 2: San Antonio at Oklahoma City June 4, 2026 70.7% vs 68.0%
Game 1: Cleveland at New York June 3, 2026 49.3% vs 70.0%
Game 1: San Antonio at Oklahoma City June 2, 2026 74.3% vs 69.0%
Game 6: San Antonio at Minnesota May 29, 2026 18.6% vs 35.0%
Game 6: Detroit at Cleveland May 29, 2026 80.8% vs 62.0%
Game 5: Cleveland at Detroit May 27, 2026 47.8% vs 61.0%
Game 4: New York at Philadelphia May 24, 2026 40.9% vs 48.0%
Game 3: New York at Philadelphia May 22, 2026 43.5% vs 52.0%
Game 6: Cleveland at Toronto May 15, 2026 30.5% vs 38.0%
Game 6: Detroit at Orlando May 15, 2026 47.5% vs 40.0%
Game 6: Los Angeles L at Houston May 16, 2026 67.7% vs 61.0%
Game 5: Minnesota at Denver May 12, 2026 81.9% vs 81.0%
East Play-In: Orlando at Philadelphia April 29, 2026 61.3% vs 54.0%
West Play-In: Portland at Phoenix April 29, 2026 59.4% vs 60.0%
Chicago at Dallas April 27, 2026 57.8% vs 66.0%
Golden State at Los Angeles C April 27, 2026 50.2% vs 62.0%
Denver at San Antonio April 27, 2026 67.2% vs 80.0%
Charlotte at New York April 26, 2026 26.9% vs 15.0%
Orlando at Boston April 26, 2026 8.0% vs 17.0%
Oklahoma City at Denver April 25, 2026 85.6% vs 82.0%
Houston at Phoenix April 22, 2026 58.4% vs 55.0%
Dallas at Los Angeles C April 22, 2026 73.1% vs 86.0%
Milwaukee at Brooklyn April 21, 2026 74.5% vs 74.0%
Portland at Denver April 21, 2026 62.4% vs 63.0%
Philadelphia at San Antonio April 21, 2026 77.9% vs 75.0%
Cleveland at Memphis April 21, 2026 28.4% vs 23.0%
New York at Atlanta April 20, 2026 45.5% vs 46.0%
Detroit at Orlando April 20, 2026 96.1% vs 98.0%
Miami at Charlotte March 31, 2026 0.0% vs 64.0%
Phoenix at Toronto March 27, 2026 63.5% vs 63.5%