Episode summary
AI’s Big Payoff? Apollo’s Top Economist Doesn’t See It Yet.
Summary
The episode splits between a plain-English tour of AI power infrastructure and a market discussion with Torsten Slok of Apollo. The host argues that data centers need a new electrical architecture, especially 800 volt DC, and that so-called sidecars can convert existing 480 volt AC feeds into a format that supports denser AI computing without oversized wiring. He says that near-term demand could benefit companies such as Vertiv, Eaton, Schneider Electric, and others tied to transformers, switches, and safety gear.
Key takeaways
- Torsten Slok says the macro data still show “no signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector,” with revenue per employee and profit margins flat for the S&P 493.
- Slok argues that AI is already helping GDP mainly through spending, but the broader earnings payoff for non-tech firms has not yet shown up.
- Slok says housing is weak because mortgage rates around 7.5 and high home prices have crushed affordability, not because of a classic bubble.
- Slok expects interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy, especially housing and autos, to stay soft while AI spending and reshoring keep growth supported.
- The host says 800 volt DC sidecars could be a lucrative bridge technology before data centers move to native 800 volt DC main feeds.
Notable quotes
“the key issue now becomes when will we begin to see signs of that adoption begin to pay off”
“we have not yet seen any signs of AI showing up outside of the tech sector”
“I feel really good because there are three very important tailwinds to economic growth at the moment”
“the problem at the moment is that it just remains very difficult with high mortgage rates and relatively steady wage growth”
“AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment”
How the episode opens
Yeah. So of course what's very important in this discussion is that uh we have invented a new technology and that new technology is now being adopted and it's being deployed in many different ways in many different sectors of course and the key issue now becomes when will we begin to see signs of that adoption begin to pay off. Hello and welcome to the Baron Street Wise podcast.
I'm Jack How and the voice you just heard, that's Torsten Sluck. He's the chief economist at Apollo, the big money manager. And he sees little sign so far that the AI spending bonanza is paying off for ordinary companies that aren't at the center of the spending.
That's not as dire as it sounds. He's broadly optimistic on investment markets. We'll talk about that.
First, I'll say a few words about something called 800 volt sidecars, which just might be the key to saving the AI buildout. Let's get into it. Listening in is our audio producer, Emily Sland.
Hi, Emily.
Hi, Jack. — How much experience do you have with electricity? What do you know? What have you done? Have you ever put a 9volt battery to your tongue? — Oh, no. No, I haven't. — Really? That's not something the kids do anymore? I don't do that anymore. I don't remember if that's dangerous or not. It's definitely gross.
What would happen when you did it? — I think that's what made my hair eventually fall out. I'm not sure. — The science was never there.
I went when I was a very small child. My grandmother took me to there's some big science museum in Philadelphia and the guy gave a demonstration of a I think it's called a vandagramraft generator. this big orb that makes electricity and it'll make your hair stand up and like I was the kid that he chose to demonstrate that on and my hair stood straight up and my grandmother was so proud because she had just washed my hair so it was it was in good standing up condition.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai outlook
- tech spending
- housing market
- interest rates
- data center demand
Companies and tickers mentioned
- APO
- Apollo Global Management
Watch the episode
Watch “AI’s Big Payoff? Apollo’s Top Economist Doesn’t See It Yet.” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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