Hunter Walk: Why Venture is Getting Harder, Picking Great Founders, and Investing Against Consensus

Hunter Walk argues that venture capital has become too large, too consensus-driven, and too incentive-distorted for many funds to produce strong seed-stage returns. He says the best seed investors should be “pre-consensus,” finding companies before the market map forms, but that today’s crowded AI-driven environment rewards brand-building and capital deployment more than patience. As funds scale from $500 million to $5 billion, he argues, the math changes: managers care less about multiples and more about how much capital they can place, which can push startups to raise more than they need and push firms toward later, more expensive outcomes.

Walk says Homebrew responded by returning outside capital and moving to an evergreen structure funded by his own money and Satya Patel’s. He describes that shift as both offensive and defensive: offensive because they wanted to act sooner, and defensive because maintaining the same ownership targets would have forced them into a much larger fund and a different operating style. He says that would have changed their priorities, team structure, and relationship with founders in ways that would reduce the joy and usefulness of the firm.

He also explains Screendoor, the LP vehicle he co-founded to back emerging managers. Rather than treating those managers as scouts, Walk says Screendoor backs competitors to established firms, because he believes new managers with domain-native insight can fill the white space left by mega-funds and help speed up venture’s natural selection process.