Episode summary
MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics
MacroVoices
· · Hosts: Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna · Guests: Michael Every
Summary
Michael Every argued that the Democrats’ sweep of Congress could materially constrain President Trump’s foreign policy, especially on Iran and Ukraine, because Congress can use the power of the purse, legislation, and oversight to make further military action harder. He said the bigger market issue is not just U.S. gridlock, but the possibility that America becomes a more constrained geopolitical actor, leaving power vacuums that rivals such as Iran, Russia, China, Turkey, or even Israel’s own strategic choices could exploit.
He said the market’s immediate reaction in oil, gold, the dollar, and equities may be pricing a faster de-escalation than is justified. In his view, continued conflict or even an attempted U.S. pullback could keep energy markets volatile, while stronger pressure on refining capacity and Russia-Ukraine infrastructure could keep crack spreads elevated. He also warned that a pause or rollback in tariffs would lower costs in the short run, but could further weaken U.S. reindustrialization and the ability to sustain a global military role.
Patrick Ceresna then framed the trading response as a possible overshoot, arguing that the selloff in Marathon Petroleum may offer a defined-risk tactical rebound trade if refining margins stay supported. He also said the market has not yet shown the kind of confirming moves in yields or the dollar that would normally signal a durable macro regime change.
Key takeaways
- Michael Every said Congress may make it harder for Trump to sustain new wars, but that could widen geopolitical vacuums rather than restore stability.
- Michael Every argued that a weaker U.S. foreign-policy posture could invite rival powers to fill the Middle East gap and keep energy markets unsettled.
- Michael Every said tariffs remain central to reindustrialization, and removing them would weaken the long-term case for U.S. economic and military dominance.
- Patrick Ceresna said the pullback in Marathon Petroleum looks like a tactical mean-reversion setup if refining spreads stay firm.
- Patrick Ceresna said the dollar and Treasury market have not yet confirmed a major macro regime shift despite the sharp move in oil and gold.
Notable quotes
“If the US becomes greatly constrained, it seems that Israel no longer has a partner in this war”
“tariffs are historically as neomantalist history shows pretty much the only way alongside other aspects of industrial policy that you are going to re-industrialize”
“the world system is crumbling”
“the bond market did not move in any meaningful way”
How the episode opens
Tariffs are historically, as neomchantalist history shows, pretty much the only way that you are going to re-industrialize. And if the US isn't going to do that, how is it going to maintain and an economy capable of supporting the vast militaryindustrial complex that it needs to be global policemen?
That was Robbo Bank geostrategist Michael Evy. I'm Eric Townsendant and this is Macrovoices, the free weekly podcast targeting professional finance and sophisticated private investors. Episode 557 was produced on November 5th, 2026.
This week's topic has to be the US midterm elections and their impacts on markets. And who better to cover that topic than Robbo Bank's Michael Every. We'll discuss the blue tsunami in the midterms, market implications of the data center moratoria, and how President Trump's likely growing conflicts with Congress will affect both the Iran and the Ukraine conflicts.
And I'm Patrick Szna. Let's dive straight into this interview.
Joining me now is Robbo Bank's global strategist, Michael Every. Michael, it's great to have you back. Obviously, US elections and their consequences for financial markets are the only plausible topic for this week's show.
Why don't we just dive in from uh the top? What's your take in terms of uh I think it's pretty darn clear that Democrats took both houses of Congress, but let's go to the next level. What should we see that maybe not everyone is seeing?
Everyone is rightly talking about what a political shock this is within the US system. What perhaps not everyone fully grasps in all of its complexities is what a shock it is for the world in a geopolitical context because what happens in America doesn't stay in America and if things are going to be changing in America they're going to change for everyone else too.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us foreign policy
- democratic congressional sweep
- global markets
- geopolitical risk
- middle east and ukraine escalation
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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MacroVoices, this episode and its artwork belong to Erik Townsend. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
