Episode summary
MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics
MacroVoices
· · 55 min · Hosts: Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna · Guests: Michael Every
Summary
Michael Every argues that the Democrats’ sweep gives Congress more leverage over foreign policy, but the bigger market story is that Washington may become far less predictable. He says Congress could make it harder for Trump to sustain an Iran campaign, and that any serious U.S. retrenchment would create power vacuums that other players — especially Iran, Russia, China, Turkey, and even Israel acting without U.S. backing — would try to exploit.
He sees the result as a geopolitical shock with direct market consequences for oil, the dollar, gold, and defense-linked assets. In his view, the immediate move lower in crude may be an overreaction if markets are assuming quick de-escalation, because continued conflict in the Middle East or Ukraine would keep energy and crack spreads supported. He also says the data-center pause narrative matters because it collides with national-security arguments about AI and industrial capacity.
Every broadens the point into a larger thesis: tariffs, industrial policy, and military power are tied together, and the U.S. cannot remain a global policeman without reindustrializing. He thinks the next phase may be a reworked bloc-based order rather than a clean return to free trade or peace dividends, with the market still underpricing the volatility of the new political setup.
Key takeaways
- Michael Every says the Democrats’ congressional win could constrain U.S. foreign policy and make Washington a less reliable geopolitical actor.
- He argues that if the U.S. steps back in the Middle East, power vacuums could be filled by Iran, Russia, China, Turkey, or a more independent Israel.
- Every says the market may be overpricing peace: oil weakness could reverse if the Iran or Ukraine conflicts escalate further.
- He says data-center restrictions matter because AI infrastructure is now tied to national security, not just electricity costs.
- Every argues tariffs remain central to reindustrialization, and removing them would weaken the U.S. ability to sustain its military-industrial complex.
Notable quotes
“What perhaps not everyone fully grasps in all of its complexities is what a shock it is for the world in a geopolitical context”
“I still think that's an extremely fat tail risk and nothing more than that”
“whoever has power electricity has power and obviously China has lots of power in that respect”
“You don't get the solution or the resolution that you want”
How the episode opens
Tariffs are historically, as neo mechanicalist history shows, pretty much the only way that you are going to re-industrialize. And if the US isn't going to do that, how is it going to maintain and an economy capable of supporting the vast military-industrial complex that it needs to be global policemen? That was Robbo Bank geostrategist Michael Every.
I'm Eric Townsendant and this is Macrovoices, the free weekly podcast targeting professional finance and sophisticated private investors. Episode 557 was produced on November 5th, 2026. This week's topic has to be the US midterm elections and their impacts on markets.
And who better to cover that topic than Robbo Bank's Michael Every. We'll discuss the blue tsunami in the midterms, market implications of the data center moratoria, and how President Trump's likely growing conflicts with Congress will affect both the Iran and the Ukraine conflicts.
And I'm Patrick Szna. Let's dive straight into this interview.
Joining me now is Robbo Bank's global strategist, Michael Every. Michael, it's great to have you back. Obviously, US elections and their consequences for financial markets are the only plausible topic for this week's show.
Why don't we just dive in from uh the top? What's your take in terms of uh I think it's pretty darn clear that Democrats took both houses of Congress, but let's go to the next level. What should we see that maybe not everyone is seeing?
Everyone is rightly talking about what a political shock this is within the US system. What perhaps not everyone fully grasps in all of its complexities is what a shock it is for the world in a geopolitical context because what happens in America doesn't stay in America and if things are going to be changing in America they're going to change for everyone else too.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- u.s. congressional sweep
- u.s. foreign policy
- geopolitical risk
- middle east escalation
- ukraine market impact
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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MacroVoices, this episode and its artwork belong to Erik Townsend. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
