Episode summary
Trading Desk - October 29th 2026
MacroVoices
· · Hosts: Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna
Summary
The discussion centered on a market that is still being led by Big Tech, but with a much more cautious tone after mixed post-earnings reactions. Microsoft was higher, Alphabet was sharply lower, and the host argued that the market has not yet seen a convincing bullish impulse from the AI trade. The NASDAQ was described as sitting below its 50-day moving average in a bearish flag, while the S&P 500 was said to remain dependent on the MAG 7 to hold key support levels.
The Fed’s no-hike decision was framed as largely expected and not enough to change the broader macro setup. The host said the dollar trend remains intact, with the euro’s weakness especially important, while oil was described as staying in a decisive bull trend that could eventually revisit $120 WTI. Gold was presented as vulnerable near $4,000 because the expected dovish pivot never came, and copper was described as a crowded trade that could weaken further if it loses $650.
Elsewhere, the host highlighted a sharp disconnect in uranium, where U308 stayed above $90 while uranium equities stayed weak, and noted Brazil’s post-election gap lower as a possible buying opportunity or an ongoing breakdown. The positioning segment focused on corn, where a higher USDA production forecast and heavy selling were seen as shaking out bullish speculators.
Key takeaways
- The host sees the AI trade as under pressure because Microsoft and Alphabet are sending mixed signals on free cash flow and follow-through.
- The NASDAQ is viewed as technically weak below its 50-day moving average, while the S&P 500 still depends on MAG 7 support.
- The host says the Fed delivered an expected hawkish hold, leaving the dollar trend intact and the euro near a key breakdown level.
- Gold is seen as vulnerable near $4,000, with no clear accumulation and room for a further 5% to 10% decline if support fails.
- Corn positioning was described as overcrowded, with about 166,000 net contracts sold over two weeks after the USDA raised production forecasts.
Notable quotes
“Microsoft higher, Alphabet sharply lower, and no convincing bullish impulse across the market”
“the NASDAQ is now below its 50-day moving average in what is essentially a bare flag”
“we saw roughly 166,000 net contracts sold over the last two weeks both long liquidation and fresh shorting”
How the episode opens
Well, thanks, Eric. Luke's argument raises a credit risk that extends beyond the company's financing the AI boom. If AI displaces workers and reduces their earning power, then the outstanding debt still need to be serviced.
Productivity gains for businesses could therefore come with deteriorating credit quality for consumer lenders. Capital 1's exposure to credit cards and auto lending makes it a candidate for expressing that concern. The technical backdrop adds to the case.
The stock peaked back in January and has spent much of the year under pressure. Following earnings, it's pivoting at its 50-day moving average. A failure around this level would reinforce the bearish structure and leave the stock vulnerable for another leg lower.
With Capital One, symbol COF trading around $24.88. I'm looking at the January 15th, 2027 200 by 175 bare put spread trading around $5.96 net debit. The $25 spread offers a maximum profit of $194 per share against that $5.96 commitment, giving it approximately a 3:1 riskreward ratio.
Now, with the implied volatility on Capital One near the bottom of its one-year range, owning even the January 200 put outright for $7.95 is also a reasonable alternative for seeking greater downside participation. We're expressing a specific vulnerability in consumer credit through a stock already showing technical weakness with a defined capital commitment and more than $3 of profit potential for every $1 risked. That's where's the trade.
Patrick analyzes and trades the markets every day over at bigpicturet trading. Macrovoices listeners can sign up for a free two-week trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now back to Patrick and Missile.
All right, Patrick, we've had the Fed announced no rate hike yesterday and there's a huge round of big tech earnings this week, but what stood out to you the most? — Let's start off with talking about the mixed earnings reaction.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- cot report
- market trading
Watch the episode
Watch “Trading Desk - October 29th 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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MacroVoices, this episode and its artwork belong to Erik Townsend. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
