Economic Policy Markets

Active Markets (2)

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket

No change

Market Model 53.0% 64.4%

25 bps increase

Market Model 47.0% 34.2%

$5.9M Refresh

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket

0 (0 bps)

Market Model 89.0% 89.6%

11 (275 bps)

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

$50.4M Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Fed Decision in October? Top outcome: No change	53.0%	64.4%	High	60	Refresh
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 (0 bps)	89.0%	89.6%	High	59	Refresh

Expired Markets (2)

Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$3.1M

Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 63.0% 68.4%

$6.4M

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Fed rate cut by...?	—	—	High	—
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	63.0%	68.4%	Med	—