When will a farm bill become law?
Short Answer
A farm bill becoming law before January 1, 2027, is unlikely due to the crowded lame-duck legislative agenda and the impossibility of a regular-order conference before year-end, an outcome the market prices at 5.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's low probability reflects the difficult legislative path for a new farm bill. The price has remained in a low single-digit range, consistent with reports highlighting that the current authorization is the result of three prior extensions. The current deadline of December 11, 2026, coincides with the expiration of government funding, which complicates passage by tying the bill's fate to broader fiscal negotiations.
The market is pricing the probability of a new bill becoming law at 5.0%, significantly lower than a forecast from The Political Group which places the odds at 16%. The low overall trading volume suggests minimal market conviction or attention. There are no specific news events in the provided context that align with the price movements after the initial drop.
- Passage by July 1, 2027, is favored, driven by compromise willingness and new Congress.
- Passage by April 1, 2027, is also possible with the new Congress in January 2027.
- Passage by January 1, 2027, is unlikely due to the crowded lame-duck legislative calendar.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 3.3% | A tight calendar and impossible regular-order conference make passage before Jan 1, 2027, improbable. |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 20.0% | 15.4% | House Ag Chair Thompson's openness to compromise and the new Congress suggest a potential pathway for early agreement. |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 38.0% | 29.5% | House Ag Chair Thompson's compromise willingness and a new Congress in January 2027 offer a path for agreement. |
Current Context
The farm bill faces a December 2026 deadline amidst legislative hurdles. The 2018 farm bill expired in 2023 and has seen three extensions; its current authorization ends December 11, 2026, coinciding with the government funding expiration [1][2]. A new bill or a fourth extension is necessary to prevent program lapses [1][2]. The House passed H.R. 7567 on April 30, 2026, with a vote of 224-200 [1]. The Senate Agriculture Committee reported S. 5526 on September 24, 2026, after an initial 10-11 markup failure on August 6, 2026, due to disputes over the SNAP cost-share [1][3]. The Senate bill requires at least seven Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold [2][4].
Key policy disagreements persist despite recent compromise signals. On November 11, 2026, House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) indicated Republican openness to a two-year SNAP cost-share delay or other compromise, a shift after midterm losses [5]. Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) confirmed ongoing negotiations but cited unresolved issues, including year-round E15, conservation funding, and pesticide labeling [6]. Boozman is seeking approximately $11 billion in additional farm assistance [6]. Prediction markets reflect a low probability for a 2026 farm bill; Coinbase/Kalshi priced 'Before Jan 1, 2027' at 34¢ Yes (66% No), and TPG forecasts a 16% likelihood (9-26% range) for a new five-year farm bill signed by December 31, 2026, with another short-term extension seen as the favored outcome [7][2].
A crowded lame-duck schedule complicates a year-end farm bill passage. The legislative agenda includes the December 11, 2026, government funding deadline, with only 3 of 12 appropriations bills having cleared the House [8]. Other priorities include the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and a roughly $70 billion supplemental package for the Iran conflict [8][9]. Congress has approximately 20 scheduled legislative days remaining before year-end [8]. Should no deal be reached by year-end, the farm bill would likely receive a fourth one-year extension [10]. This would effectively restart the process in the new Congress in January 2027, where Democrats are expected to hold a majority in at least one chamber, potentially returning nutrition programs (SNAP) to the center of debate [4][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1The 2026 Farm Bill: Comparison of the House-Passed and Senate Committee-Reported Bills with Current Laweverycrsreport.com
- 2Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026? TPG Forecast: 16% | The Political Groupthepoliticalgroup.com
- 3Farm bill proposal fails in US Senate ag committee over SNAP error rate issue | National | postregister.compostregister.com
- 4The Path to a New Farm Bill (Regularly Updated) - OEFFA Policyaction.oeffa.com
- 5POLITICO Pro | Article | Republicans open to Democrats’ key farm bill demand, as time runs out for a dealsubscriber.politicopro.com
- 6Compromise Remains Possible | Red River Farm Networkrrfn.com
- 7When will a farm bill become law? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 8Farm Bill Competes With Crowded Lame-Duck Agendadtnpf.com
- 9Pass the Farm Bill Now or Start Over? Policy Analysts Weigh Ag's Path After the Midterms | Agriculture of Americaagricultureofamerica.com
- 10Farm Bill’s Fate Uncertain as Lawmakers Push for Lame-Duck Dealnews.bgov.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market asks "When will a farm bill become law?" and offers contracts based on three specific deadlines: before January 1, 2027, before April 1, 2027, or before July 1, 2027. For each individual contract, a 'YES' resolution occurs if a farm bill becomes law by its specified deadline. Conversely, a 'NO' resolution occurs if no farm bill becomes law by that date. All contracts have a maximum payout date of July 1, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.06 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $0.18 | $0.90 | 20% |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $0.29 | $0.79 | 38% |
Market Discussion
While the House passed its farm bill on April 30 and the Senate Agriculture Committee reported its version on September 24, a new multiyear bill faces an impasse over SNAP cost-sharing and a crowded lame-duck legislative window [1]. Republicans were reported open to compromise on the SNAP issue on November 11, but analysts indicate a full regular-order bill is unlikely to fit the remaining calendar [2]. Consequently, many observers and market probabilities (e.g., 5% before January 1, 2027) suggest an extension of the 2018 farm bill or action by a later Congress is more realistic than enactment of a new bill this year [3].
Sources (3)
- 1The 2026 Farm Bill: Comparison of the House-Passed and Senate Committee-Reported Bills with Current Laweverycrsreport.com
- 2POLITICO Pro | Article | Republicans open to Democrats’ key farm bill demand, as time runs out for a dealsubscriber.politicopro.com
- 3When will a farm bill become law? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score4Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. How do the House-passed H.R. 7567 and the Senate's S. 5526 differ on key provisions like SNAP funding and commodity price supports?
| Probability by July 1, 2027 (OpinionKings) | 38% (November 12, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Probability by April 1, 2027 (OpinionKings) | 19% (November 12, 2026) [1] |
| Probability by July 1, 2027 (ElectionOdds) | 48% (October 31, 2026) [2] |
The available research does not detail specific differences between the House-passed H.R. 7567 and the Senate's S. 5526 regarding key provisions like SNAP funding or commodity price supports. The information provided primarily focuses on prediction market probabilities for the enactment of a farm bill.
Prediction markets show varying probabilities for a farm bill becoming law. As of November 12, 2026, OpinionKings reported a 38% probability of enactment before July 1, 2027, and 19% before April 1, 2027 [1]. These figures reflect market prices, not independent forecasts [1]. Another market, ElectionOdds, presented different probabilities on October 31, 2026, indicating a 48% chance before July 1, 2027, 32% before April 1, 2027, and 9% before January 1, 2027 [2]. These discrepancies highlight that odds can fluctuate across platforms and over time [2]. For the market to consider the issue resolved, a multiyear law must receive a presidential signature or a veto override; mere chamber passage is insufficient [3].
6. What specific compromises on SNAP cost-sharing could secure enough Democratic support to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold before year-end?
| SNAP State Cost-Share Effective Date | Fiscal year 2028 [1] |
|---|---|
| Democratic Governors Opposing Cost-Share | 23 [1][2] |
| Prediction Market Odds for Farm Bill Enactment | 5-21% by Jan 1, 2027 [3][4][5][6][7] |
Democrats demand specific SNAP compromises for Senate farm bill passage. To secure sufficient Democratic support to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold, Democrats are expected to push for a partial restoration of the $187 billion in SNAP cuts and a rollback of expanded work requirements [6]. Furthermore, they would likely demand a delay or scaling back of the fiscal year 2028 state cost-share, or an expansion of the exemption for states that reduce SNAP payment error rates below 6% [6]. Anti-hunger groups have also criticized the House-passed 2026 farm bill for failing to overturn these SNAP cuts [8][2].
SNAP's cost-share mechanism faces significant Democratic opposition, especially from governors. This mechanism is set to take effect in fiscal year 2028 and includes an exemption for states that reduce SNAP payment error rates below 6% [1]. However, 23 Democratic governors oppose this cost-sharing, viewing it as a de facto benefit cut [1][2]. Reports also indicate that Democratic states may face higher cost shares due to their comparatively higher error rates [1][2].
Low farm bill passage odds necessitate a significant year-end compromise. As of November 12, 2026, prediction markets estimate the likelihood of the farm bill becoming law before January 1, 2027, to be approximately 5-21% [3][4][5][6][7]. These low odds suggest that year-end enactment would require a substantial compromise, implying that such a deal is not yet close [3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (8)
- 1Red states brace for SNAP fallout - POLITICOpolitico.com
- 2US House looks to hike work requirements for food aid | Reutersreuters.com
- 3When will a farm bill become law? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 4When will a farm bill become law? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 5When will a farm bill become law? — live odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 6When will a farm bill become law? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
- 7Congress odds: bills, shutdowns and votes | Parlay the Peopleparlaythepeople.com
- 8US House passes farm bill after scrapping pesticide language opposed by MAHA | Reutersreuters.com
7. What factors are driving prediction markets like Kalshi and TPG to heavily favor an extension over a new farm bill being signed by January 1, 2027?
| Odds for new farm bill by Jan 1, 2027 | 5% (Kalshi) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| YES price drop (7 days) | 81 points [3][2] |
| Odds for new farm bill by July 1, 2027 (OpinionKings) | 48% (Oct 31, 2026) to 38% (Nov 12, 2026) [4][5][1] |
Prediction markets strongly anticipate an extension over a new farm bill. These markets heavily favor an extension of the current farm bill rather than a new omnibus law being enacted by January 1, 2027 [1][2]. The 'Before Jan 1, 2027' contract on Kalshi is trading at 5%, indicating a low probability for a new multiyear law to pass both chambers and be signed by the deadline [1][2][6][5]. This resolution rule specifically requires a new multiyear law, which a quick short-term extension would not satisfy [6][5].
Odds for a new farm bill are declining, with significant institutional skepticism. The probability for a new farm bill by this date has been falling sharply, with the YES price dropping 5 points in 24 hours and 81 points over 7 days [3][2]. This sentiment is reinforced by a significant $3,000 order placed on the NO side at 97 ¢ on November 5, 2026, suggesting institutional-level betting against a new bill being signed by the deadline [3][2].
Trader conviction against a new farm bill continues to strengthen. Odds have consistently drifted down through late 2026, suggesting that negotiations are stalling and legislative calendar constraints make a full omnibus bill increasingly unlikely [4][5][1]. For example, the 'Before July 1, 2027' contract on OpinionKings fell from 48% on October 31, 2026, to 38% by November 12, 2026 [4][5][1]. Similarly, the 'Before April 1, 2027' contract also dropped significantly from 32% to 19-20% [4][5][1].
Sources (6)
- 1When will a farm bill become law? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2When will a farm bill become law? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will an omnibus, multiyear law that governs an array of… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4When will a farm bill become law? — live odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 5When will a farm bill become law? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
- 6When will a farm bill become law? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
8. What is the historical timeline for passing previous farm bills during lame-duck sessions versus pushing them into a new Congress?
| 2018 Farm Bill Passage | Lame-duck session (December 20, 2018) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 2014 Farm Bill Passage | New Congress (February 7, 2014) [3][1] |
| Market Odds for 2026 Lame-Duck Passage | Approximately 5% (before January 1, 2027) [4][5] |
Farm bill passage historically shows mixed results during lame-duck sessions. While the 2018 Agriculture Improvement Act successfully passed and was signed into law during a lame-duck session on December 20, 2018 [1][2], other farm bills have faced delays. Both the 2014 Agricultural Act and the 2023 farm bill were ultimately pushed into a new Congress after their respective lame-duck sessions failed to pass them [3][1][2]. For example, the 2014 Act was signed on February 7, 2014, in a new Congress, following the conclusion of the 2013 lame-duck session without its passage [3][1]. Similarly, the 2023 farm bill became law in a new Congress on August 14, 2023, after the 2022 lame-duck session did not pass it [2].
Current market pricing suggests a low likelihood of a 2026 lame-duck farm bill. The estimated odds for resolution before January 1, 2027, are approximately 5% [4][5]. This market sentiment aligns with the recent historical trend, where two of the last three farm bills (2014 and 2023) were deferred to a new Congress following failed lame-duck attempts, compared to only one successful lame-duck passage (2018) [4][6][7][3]. Specifically for the 2026 farm bill, market odds for a lame-duck passage saw a significant decline in late October and early November 2026, dropping from about 22% in mid-September to 5% by early November [8][5][7][6].
Sources (8)
- 1Glossary & Acronyms - National Sustainable Agriculture Coalitionsustainableagriculture.net
- 2National Agricultural Policy – Marketing Ordersaglaw.psu.edu
- 3On the Permanence of Permanent Law: An Argument for the Continued Presence of the Permanent Law Provisions in the Farm Billlarc.cardozo.yu.edu
- 4When will a farm bill become law? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5Will an omnibus, multiyear law that governs an array of… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6When will a farm bill become law? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
- 7When will a farm bill become law? — live odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 8When will a farm bill become law? - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
9. How does the crowded lame-duck legislative agenda impact the likelihood of a farm bill vote versus another short-term extension before December 11?
| Omnibus Farm Bill Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% (prediction markets) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Odds Before Jul 1, 2027 (Oct 31 vs Nov 12, 2026) | 48% to 38% [2][3] |
| Odds Before Apr 1, 2027 (Oct 31 vs Nov 12, 2026) | 32% to 19–20% [2][3] |
A crowded lame-duck agenda lessens the likelihood of a farm bill vote. The busy legislative schedule during the lame-duck session significantly decreases the chances of a full omnibus farm bill vote occurring before December 11, with prediction markets indicating this outcome as highly improbable [1][2]. Congress is instead anticipated to pass a short-term extension of the farm bill during this period, rather than a comprehensive, multi-year omnibus package [4][2].
Prediction market activity reflects diminishing confidence in a timely farm bill. Traders on prediction markets currently price the "Before Jan 1, 2027" contract at 5%, signifying that a full omnibus farm bill passing within the current lame-duck session is considered very unlikely [1][2]. This price point decreased to 5% following a notable "NO" order placed on November 5, 2026, suggesting that informed traders are wagering against a lame-duck farm bill vote [5][6]. Broader market expectations for any farm bill enactment have shifted further into 2027; for instance, odds for "Before Jul 1, 2027" decreased from 48% to 38%, and for "Before Apr 1, 2027," they fell from 32% to between 19% and 20% during the period spanning October 31 to November 12, 2026 [2][3].
Sources (6)
- 1When will a farm bill become law? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2When will a farm bill become law? · OpinionKingsopinionkings.com
- 3When will a farm bill become law? — live odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 4When will a farm bill become law? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 5When will a farm bill become law? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Will an omnibus, multiyear law that governs an array of… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The House passed the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567) on April 30, 2026, by a vote of 224-200, marking the first House farm bill floor passage since 2018 [1]. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scored this bill at an increase of $162 million in mandatory spending over six years (FY2026-31), maintaining budget neutrality over eleven years [2][3]. Concurrently, the Senate Ag Committee reported S. 5526 (Agricultural Act of 2026) on September 16, 2026, following an August 6 markup that initially failed due to the SNAP cost-share issue [2][4][5]. The CBO scored S. 5526 at an increase of $8.2 billion over five years (FY2027-31) and $4.8 billion over ten years [2][4][5].
The central impediment to agreement remains the delay of the SNAP state cost-share from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill [6][7][8][5]. This provision mandates states with error rates exceeding 6% to pay 5-15% of benefit costs beginning October 2027 [6][7][8][5]. Republicans proposed a one-year delay, while Democrats sought a two-year delay [6][7][8][5]. On November 11, House Ag Chair Thompson indicated openness to the two-year delay [7].
The current extension of the 2018 farm bill and government funding both expire on December 11, 2026 [9][6][10][11]. Congress adjourns on December 18, 2026, with approximately 20-24 legislative days remaining [9][6][10][11]. Analysts indicate a regular-order conference is improbable, with the realistic path being a back-room compromise attached to a December omnibus or stopgap measure [9][6][10][11]. Without a new bill or extension, some farm programs would lapse after December 11, 2026, and permanent commodity law would restore on January 1, 2027, starting with dairy, potentially causing duplicative payments [2][6][5]. The Senate bill's inclusion of year-round nationwide E15 could also be stalled without a SNAP deal [2][6][5]. Prediction markets show low probabilities for enactment by year-end: Kalshi prices enactment before January 1, 2027, at 5% (5¢), rising to 20% (18¢) before April 1, 2027, and 38% (29¢) before July 1, 2027 [12]. The Political Group (TPG) forecasts a 16% probability (range 9-26%) for enactment by December 31, 2026, with the most likely paths being an extension (64%), lapse (20%), omnibus attachment (10%), or standalone December passage (6%) [3].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: July 01, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1H.R.7567 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 2Farm Bill Primer: Overview and Status | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 3Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026? TPG Forecast: 16% | The Political Groupthepoliticalgroup.com
- 4Farm bill fails vote in Senate agriculture committee over SNAP provisionstartribune.com
- 5Farm bill proposal fails in US Senate ag committee over SNAP error rate issue | National | postregister.compostregister.com
- 6Lame-duck farm bill hinges on SNAP cost-share deal | US Farm Newsusfarmnews.com
- 7POLITICO Pro | Article | Republicans open to Democrats’ key farm bill demand, as time runs out for a dealsubscriber.politicopro.com
- 8Democrats push to delay new SNAP costs for states • Spotlight PAspotlightpa.org
- 9Pass the Farm Bill Now or Start Over? Policy Analysts Weigh Ag's Path After the Midterms | Agriculture of Americaagricultureofamerica.com
- 10Farm Bill Competes With Crowded Lame-Duck Agendadtnpf.com
- 11Upcoming Congressional Fiscal Policy Deadlines-2026-10-26crfb.org
- 12When will a farm bill become law? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
