Episode summary
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving?
HousingWire Daily
· · 20 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that a clear path to sub-7% mortgage rates is back on the table if the 10-year Treasury yield keeps breaking lower and mortgage spreads improve. He said the key technical level around 5.35% on the 10-year has already held, and that a move below roughly 4.85% could open the door to sub-7% mortgage rates, with an even stronger signal if the 10-year closes below 4.70%.
He tied the recent rate improvement to three forces: the Iran conflict potentially easing oil prices, an AI-driven slowdown pressuring tech stocks and softening inflation expectations, and this week’s jobs data. In his view, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish posture still matters a lot for mortgage rates, but any moderation in oil, AI, or labor-market pressure could help bond yields drift lower.
Mohtashami also said housing inventory growth looks fairly normal given where rates are, and he expects the seasonal slowdown to show up soon. He compared the current setup with 2023, when rates fell sharply and forward-looking demand improved before the market turned back up again. His bottom line was that the next few weeks could determine whether the market gets a meaningful move toward 6.5%-plus mortgages by Thanksgiving and beyond.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said sub-7% mortgage rates become plausible if the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4.85% and mortgage spreads improve.
- He sees three main catalysts for lower rates: easing Iran/oil headlines, an AI slowdown, and softer labor data.
- He said the 5.35% level on the 10-year “held,” which keeps a lower-rate breakout in play rather than forcing more bond selling.
- Mohtashami argued inventory growth is not unusually strong; he sees it as the normal effect of higher rates suppressing demand.
- He expects the next few weeks of data to matter more than stale reports, especially for judging whether housing demand is turning up again.
Notable quotes
“the Federal Reserve 65 to 75% of where mortgage rates can go is still Fed policy”
“if oil can trade between 67 and 82 and there's actually like a deal done”
“I believed we had a key technical level that looked like it were going to test. We tested that level”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about what's going on in the market and what the economic data was in our tracker. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First, we have our exclusive cross-country mortgage demands payment from former LO's invokes two-year non-solicitation, followed by the tracker, which is a path to sub 7% mortgage rates is back on the table. Then, we have MLS executives way open real estate and listing control and strata land launches as builders face land capital squeeze. Finally, we have Dr.
Horton's silver lining playbook for 2027 with a catch. We are ready to dive in. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here and wow, this this might be the week of the year in terms of, you know, what what's left in the calendars because, you know, as always, we don't like to do too much uh uh uh talking about economics the last two weeks of the year because the people uh get ready for the holidays. But man, we got jobs week, we got uh uh tariff talk, we got midterms, we got Iran uh uh conflict headlines, Fed speeches, 10ear yields, head and shoulders patterns, hold the line on fire. We got the whole enchilada.
So, I'm very excited for this Monday,
Man. Okay. Well, let let's dive in on what's happening um this morning.
And actually, we're we're doing this a little bit this afternoon. What have we seen as far as um what's happening in the in the markets, how that's affecting the bond yields? So all we care about is that we want this head and shoulder pattern on the 10-year to break lower.
And uh of course the the key thing for everything is that that 5.35 level held and now it's become lower because AI is now part of the uh equation.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- interest rates
- sub-7% mortgages
- mortgage outlook
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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