Episode summary
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers
HousingWire Daily
· · 25 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the biggest near-term risk to housing and rates has eased after a volatile October. He pointed to jobless claims under 200,000, GDP at 3.4%, core and headline CPI above 3%, and the 10-year yield slipping back under 5% as evidence that the worst-case scenario for mortgage rates may have passed for now. He said the market is starting to look ahead to 2027, when growth may slow and some of today’s inflation pressures could fade.
On inflation, Logan said tariffs have pushed up core goods prices and that rent inflation is stabilizing, which matters more for CPI than PCE. He argued that even after AI capex, conflict, deficits, and oil shocks, the economy is still not far from 2% PCE, and that any real improvement will require getting tariff and conflict risks under control.
He also pushed back on housing doom narratives using vacancy data. Logan said the homeowner vacancy rate at 1.2% is historically low because homes are shelter, not speculative inventory, while rental vacancies near 7.6% suggest only a moderate near-term risk to rents. He said homeownership at 65.4% looks normal after demographic and credit adjustments, and that the market is healthier than during the 2022 shortage, even if rates and affordability remain stretched.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the 10-year yield moving back below 5% suggests the worst mortgage-rate shock may be over for now.
- He argued tariff-driven core goods inflation is the bigger concern than wages, while rent inflation is stabilizing.
- Logan said the homeowner vacancy rate of 1.2% is historically low and does not support a flood of distressed listings.
- He said rental vacancies around 7.6% could cap rent growth for now, but housing construction weakness could matter later.
- Mohtashami said 65.4% homeownership is near a normal level once demographics and credit conditions are adjusted.
Notable quotes
“the 10-year yield was down a few basis points today. So, I just look at it as we won”
“we finally got a positive day a positive Fed day for housing”
“the home owner vacancy rate is 1.2%. It rarely”
“the rental vacancies had been stabilized around a little bit above 7% for some time, but it perked up to about 7.6”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Mohtashami. And if you are watching this on YouTube, you might be like, what is going on?
Of course, this is our annual Halloween dress-up edition. And today's theme is Elizabeth Holmes, who wore it better. So, you know, you might think I'm a woman, I have an advantage here.
But if you're looking right now at Logan, he's got the blue eyes. He figured that out. The facial hair is kind of makes it rough, but otherwise I think he might win.
So, Logan, welcome to this very unusual podcast.
It is wonderful to be here, Sarah. I don't know why you're saying my facial hair would make me look weird. — This I Okay, first of all, what does this have to do with the housing finance? Nothing. We just like to have fun.
Nothing. I We We both saw that movie with Elizabeth Holmes, and we thought they're both crazy. So, I love this. — Yes, no. I love this. I I I love it. The big blue eyes really do a a big number for you, I think.
This is not easy to make, by the way. So, the chart daddy does not have the greatest skills, but I tried. — Oh my gosh, okay. Well, thank you for for being in the spirit of Halloween. I mean, you've been saying all month, you're like, "Ooh, this could be a scary month for housing." So, let's dive into it. Are you going to keep that on for a while? You going to take that off?
Uh uh just for a little bit. We're going to talk about today's economic data, which was really, really interesting today. Jobless claims is under 200,000. Uh oil prices are above 100, both WTI and crude.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- inflation
- homeowner vacancy data
- housing market
- fed policy
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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