Episode summary
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates?
HousingWire Daily
· · 19 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing demand has not broken higher in a durable way, but it has stabilized as mortgage rates eased and volatility improved. He said the latest tracker showed a noticeable week-over-week drop in inventory, but he tied that partly to holiday seasonality and partly to the slowdown that hit when rates moved above 7%. His view is that the current move looks more like stabilization after a fast downturn than a fresh demand breakout.
He said mortgage spreads remain the key swing factor. In his framing, spreads are near multi-year lows relative to recent history, and if they simply return to this year’s best levels, mortgage rates could be around 6.72% even without help from the 10-year Treasury yield. He added that any further decline in yields or spreads could push rates below 7% and closer to his lower targets.
Mohtashami also said the broader backdrop is better than the worst-case scenario he had feared: bond volatility is easing, the labor market held up, and the market is not seeing the explosive upside in yields that would have pressured housing more severely.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the latest tracker shows housing demand stabilizing, not surging, after rates moved lower.
- He said inventory fell week to week, but holiday timing and seasonal effects likely amplified the drop.
- Mohtashami said mortgage spreads are the most important near-term lever, and a return to this year’s best levels implies 6.72% mortgage rates.
- He argued that if volatility keeps fading, spreads could improve further and help push rates back under 7%.
- He said the worst-case housing scenario, with a 10-year yield above 5.35% and more bond selling, did not materialize.
Notable quotes
“it was a noticeable decline week to week on inventory, uh which you know at this time of the year you're always waiting for that you know seasonal decline to starts”
“I think that explains the big decline in inventory and you know next next weekend you know Halloween and all that stuff gets readjusted so it wouldn't shock me if inventory picked up”
“I'm still sticking to the premise that I've only seen growth when mortgage rates get below 6.64 and head to six”
“The lowest spreads this year was 1.82. So now that we're over 40 basis points above, I said, well, let's take the best levels of the spreads in 2026”
“Where mortgage rates today? 6.72. Wow. No help. No help from the 10-year yield”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about whether housing demand has changed already with lower rates. Before we dive in here, the top five trending articles on housingwire.com.
First is the tracker, mortgage rates fell and demand stabilized as inventory dipped, followed by why didn't the strong jobs report send mortgage rates skyrocketing? Then we have NAR membership proves more resilient than expected, topping 1.46 million, and the housing laws that could derail a sale and why realtors need to pay attention. Finally, we have ICE, borrowers reach record tappable equity as cash out refis drive runoff.
Okay, we're ready to go. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. Sarah, your hotel rooms are always so pristine and perfect, you know? And mines are absolute chaos and, you know, it's good that you've got you're showing your clean hotel room here. You're in what, Sedona, Arizona?
I'm in beautiful Sedona, yes. And And why aren't you showing yours? What What's in the background?
There's there's there's no need to. I'm just I'm I I it's like that like that pastor says, I'm the whirlwind, man. I'm just chaos traveling around the country, so you it it doesn't need to be seen.
But so speaking of chaos, you know, I I always have a thing, you know, you know, I've got to deal with the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, disinformation campaigns like I do with the anti-central bank. And of course, since we're talking about AI, you know, NVIDIA CEO, you know, China honey pot, you know, that was that was a thing over the weekend and there's so much focus on AI you know, now and this morning um oil prices down early in the morning.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rate changes
- housing demand
- inventory levels
- mortgage origination
- refinancing
Watch the episode
Watch “Has housing demand already changed with lower rates?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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