About these summaries
Octagon has summarized 187 episodes of HousingWire Daily published between Jan 5, 2026 and Nov 10, 2026. The companies discussed most often are HousingWire, Compass and Fannie Mae. Frequent guests include Logan Mohtashami, Brooklee Han and Rachel Bader. Each summary lists key takeaways, short timestamped quotes and the companies and tickers mentioned, with a link to the full episode.
Most-mentioned tickers
- FNMA 7
- PHM 7
- RKT 7
- UWMC 6
- GOOG 5
- GOOGL 5
- Z 5
- COMP 4
- FMCC 3
- ZG 3
- CSGP 2
- FICO 2
Most-mentioned companies
- HousingWire 15
- Compass 7
- Fannie Mae 7
- Freddie Mac 5
- Google 5
- PulteGroup 5
- Rocket Companies 5
- Zillow 5
- Redfin 4
- Bed Bath & Beyond 3
- Federal Reserve 3
- Finance of America 3
- Total Expert 3
- UWM 3
- Better 2
Frequent guests
- Logan Mohtashami 137
- Brooklee Han 3
- Rachel Bader 3
- Andy Walden 2
- Joe Welu 2
- Jonathan Scarpati 2
- Kevin Warsh 2
Episodes
- Has housing demand already changed with lower rates?
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing demand has not broken higher in a durable way, but it has stabilized as mortgage rates eased and volatility improved.
- How midterms and jobs week will affect rates
Logan Mohtashami argues that the key forces for rates this week are politics and labor data, not housing fundamentals alone.
- Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages
Reverse mortgages were presented as a flexible tool for older borrowers who need cash for retirement expenses, debt payoff, home renovations, or family support.
- A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving?
Logan Mohtashami argued that a clear path to sub-7% mortgage rates is back on the table if the 10-year Treasury yield keeps breaking lower and mortgage spreads improve.
- Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers
Logan Mohtashami argued that the biggest near-term risk to housing and rates has eased after a volatile October.
- What did the Fed meeting mean for mortgage rates?
The host and a guest argued that the Fed’s latest pause matters less for the short-term policy decision than for what it signals about mortgage rates, bond yields, and the timing…
- SitusAMC’s Michael Franco on building a mortgage business that works at 7% rates
Mortgage leaders cannot wait for rates to fall back to old levels; Michael Franco argues they have to redesign their businesses for a 7% to 7.5% world.
- Open Real Estate: Four Brokerage Giants Bet on a More Transparent Housing Market
Four of the largest brokerage companies are building Open Real Estate, a new industry data initiative meant to create a complete, centralized listing database without replacing…
- Fed day preview and the latest Tracker data
Logan Mohtashami says the Fed is not expected to hike this week, and that the market has already priced in a pause until December.
- What’s happening with the bond market?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest bond-market move is best understood as a technical break, not a fundamental shift.
- Pending home sales, purchase apps and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami says the latest housing data are weakening again because mortgage rates have pushed back up toward 7% to 7.5%, with pending home sales and purchase applications…
- Wade Jurney on building entry-level homes in this market
Wade Jurney says National Home Corporation is built around one idea: keep starter homes as affordable as possible.
- Housing construction looks soft for 2027
Logan Mohtashami argues that the latest builder sentiment reading is a warning sign for housing construction, with sentiment back to the lows seen in 2012.
- How many Fed rate hikes are left?
Logan Mohtashami says the market is still pricing in two more Fed rate hikes, with October unlikely and December the more likely window.
- PRMG’s Kevin Peranio on finding opportunity in this market
Kevin Peranio argued that a higher-rate market still contains plenty of opportunity if originators stay positive, rethink their processes, and focus on controllable activity.
- Why the Fed wants more rate hikes
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish tone is being driven by officials who want slower growth, not by any belief that rate hikes can fix oil shocks…
- MBA’s Bill Killmer on how the midterms could change housing
Bill Killmer said the midterms could reshape housing mainly through oversight and personnel, not through a sudden policy reset.
- Reggora’s Brian Zitin on launching a free home inspection platform
Reggora CEO Brian Zitin said the company launched HomeInspector.com as free software for home inspectors, covering websites, booking, scheduling, mobile inspection workflows…
- Why home prices are still positive
Logan Mohtashami argues that home prices are still positive because the housing market is being shaped by lagging national indexes, not by what is happening in real time.
- Are 9% mortgage rates possible?
Logan Mohtashami argued that 9% mortgage rates are not the base case and would require a very bullish U.S. economy, worse mortgage spreads, and a much higher 10-year yield.
- Mortgage Spreads: the key for housing in 2026, 2027 & 2028
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage spreads, more than the Fed alone, are now the key variable for housing through 2026, 2027 and 2028.
- Is housing on hold until after the midterms?
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing is not simply going to pause until after the midterms, even with the recent spike in rates, oil, and 10-year Treasury volatility.
- Is a hot economy good for housing?
Logan Mohtashami argues that a hot economy is keeping mortgage rates elevated, but that does not automatically help housing demand.
- Mortgage Rates 8%, 6% or the base case?
Logan Mohtashami says the latest housing tracker still looks consistent with a market that is cooling only modestly, even after mortgage rates moved above 7%.
- Is the housing construction cycle breaking?
Mortgage rates were described as still elevated but only modestly changed, with the 10-year yield and oil prices driving the day-to-day volatility.
- What Kelley Blue Book Homes is building with new valuation platform
John Liss says Kelley Blue Book Homes is meant to bring a trusted valuation brand into residential real estate by pairing Kelley Blue Book’s consumer recognition with True…
- Fed week preview and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates are being driven less by the Fed meeting itself and more by the oil shock, the 10-year Treasury yield, and the wider bond-market…
- 2027 inflation and mortgage rate outlook
Logan Mohtashami argues that the 2027 mortgage-rate outlook is being driven less by the latest CPI print and more by the conflict-driven jump in oil and the 10-year Treasury yield.
- How much higher can rates go?
Mortgage rates pushing above 7% were framed as a function of the bond market, not a simple Fed story.
- Bond market rejects Treasury’s game plan, for now
Logan Mohtashami argues that the bond market has rejected Treasury’s latest buyback plan, with the 10-year yield rising after the announcement of a $6 billion repurchase.
- Where senior homeowners fit in the lending lifecycle
The discussion centered on how senior homeowners with substantial equity can use their homes as part of retirement planning, rather than waiting for a broader housing-market…
- The important context for year-over-year data
The conversation focused on why year-over-year housing data in 2026 needs more context than a simple comparison suggests.
- Joe Welu on how AI is changing customer relationships
Joe Welu argues that AI is not just a faster version of existing mortgage workflows, but a chance to reimagine the business around outcomes, context, and customer lifetime value.
- The truth of what’s happening in the labor market
Logan Mohtashami argued that the strong jobs report does not change the broader picture for mortgage rates or the Fed’s path.
- Can mortgage spreads get worse from here?
Logan Mohtashami argues that mortgage spreads, not just the 10-year Treasury yield, are the main reason mortgage rates have stayed below 7% this year.
- Oil prices, mortgage rates and jobs Friday preview
Logan Mohtashami says the jump in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict is now one of the main forces pushing the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, but so far it has not broken…
- Joni Pilgrim on UAD 3.6 and how AI could disrupt appraisals
Joni Pilgrim argues that the appraisal industry has been transformed by technology, regulation, and crisis-driven change.
- How long can mortgage spreads hold off 7% rates?
Rising mortgage rates are again pressing against the 7% level, but Logan Mohtashami argues mortgage spreads are still doing enough to keep most borrowing costs below that line…
- The mortgage rate outlook for the rest of 2026
Logan Mohtashami argues that the mortgage-rate outlook for the rest of 2026 is being driven less by Fed personalities and more by three variables: the conflict in the Middle…
- It’s time for Kevin Warsh to step up as Fed chair
Logan Mohtashami argues that Jackson Hole matters less as a policy pivot than as a credibility test for Kevin Worsh.
- Freddie Mac on the strategic shift of UAD 3.6
Freddie Mac is framing UAD 3.6 as a broad appraisal modernization effort, not just a form change.
- NEXA Lending and UMortgage join forces
The episode centers on Nexa Lending’s acquisition of UMortgage and how two former rivals now plan to operate as partners.
- The Federal Reserve makes AI a housing problem
Logan Mohtashami argues that housing has an AI problem because the Federal Reserve is treating AI-driven investment as inflationary, which can keep policy tighter for longer and…
- Is the national debt pushing mortgage rates higher?
Logan Mohtashami argues that the recent rise in mortgage rates is not mainly being driven by the national debt, even with headlines fixated on $40 trillion in federal debt.
- Jay Parsons on changes in the rental market
Jay Parsons argued that the rental market is being misunderstood if it is viewed mainly through the lens of homeownership affordability.
- What’s really happening in the housing market?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the housing market is not in a crash, but in a slow, mostly range-bound adjustment.
- Should we cut the capital gains tax on home sales?
Logan Mohtashami argues that cutting or expanding the capital gains exemption on home sales could boost transactions, but it may also intensify competition for housing.
- How to read the foreclosure data
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest inflation print and falling yields make another near-term rate hike push look less convincing, even though some Fed officials are still…
- Will the inflation report change the Fed’s mind on rate hikes?
Logan Mohtashami said the latest CPI report was tame enough to fit expectations, but probably not strong enough to force a September rate hike unless a few hawkish Fed voters…
- Ricky Carruth on changing the infrastructure of real estate
Ricky Carruth argued that real estate is moving from a centralized MLS-and-portal model toward a more fragmented system shaped by Compass, ARRA, Google, Kelley Blue Book, Bed…
- Mortgage rates, housing demand and inflation week
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates, not just home prices, are still the main variable shaping housing demand.
- What does the jobs report mean for a Fed rate hike in September?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest jobs report matters less for the headline payroll number than for what it says about wage growth and labor supply.
- What’s driving rates: the Fed, jobs data or the Iran conflict?
Logan Mohtashami argues that the biggest driver of mortgage rates right now is still the labor market, not the Fed’s messaging or the latest conflict headlines.
- How the ROAD Act will impact housing supply
Tyler Williams says the ROAD Act is mostly about supply: it pushes local governments toward pro-housing zoning reforms, speeds some federal environmental reviews, and gives…
- The Fed hawks send mortgage rates higher
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates are being driven more by the bond market’s reaction to Fed hawks and geopolitical risk than by the official Fed chair.
- Will eliminating property taxes make Florida more affordable?
Orlando Diaz says Florida’s housing affordability problem is being driven by a mix of rising home prices, insurance costs and especially taxes, with Miami highlighting how…
- Fed day preview: The hawks have already won
Logan Mohtashami says the Fed hawks have already won because bond markets have largely priced in tighter policy without the Fed having to raise rates again.
- How long will housing demand hold up with higher rates?
Housing demand is still holding up, but Logan Mohtashami argued that the growth rate is clearly slowing as mortgage rates stay above his 6.64% threshold.
- Mortgage rates hit yearly high
Logan Mohtashami said the latest jump in mortgage rates is being driven primarily by the Iran conflict, not by a sudden deterioration in the economy.
- Will higher oil prices and rates slow down the economy?
Logan Mohtashami argued that higher oil prices and higher rates are already doing much of the Fed’s work, but not in a way that clearly points to recession.
- Will mortgage rates go higher with Iran escalation?
Logan Mohtashami argues that the renewed Iran conflict has pushed mortgage-rate risk higher, but not enough to justify panic.
- Can housing demand grow with higher rates?
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing demand has held up better than expected even with mortgage rates back at 6.64%, though he said the key test is whether rates stay above that…
- Inflation misses estimates but rates still elevated
Logan Mohtashami argued that the June inflation report was a major miss, but it did not automatically translate into a big drop in mortgage rates because the market had already…
- July rate hike in play if inflation is hot this week
Logan Mohtashami argued that inflation week has become a crucial test for mortgage rates because the Fed has turned more hawkish just as geopolitical risk has risen.
- What would it take to crash home prices this year?
Logan Mohtashami argues that a national crash in home prices is unlikely in 2026 because the usual ingredients for a collapse are missing.
- Existing home sales and rising home prices
Logan Mohtashami argues that the headline around existing home sales is not that prices hit an all-time high, but that affordability has improved because wages, inventory, and…
- Will mortgage rates get back to 7% this year?
Mortgage rates getting back above 7% in 2026 is possible, but Logan Mohtashami argues it would take a lot more than the current geopolitical noise.
- Kelley Blue Book launches real estate platform
Kelley Blue Book’s move into real estate is framed as a potentially meaningful challenge to Zillow because it brings a well-known consumer brand into home valuation and lead…
- Why home sales remain positive
Mortgage spreads are doing most of the work in keeping housing activity afloat.
- The resiliency of the US housing market
Logan Mohtashami argued that the U.S. housing market’s resilience comes from its structure, not from a normal boom-bust cycle.
- After the jobs report, we may be down to only one rate hike in 2026
Logan Mohtashami argued that the post-jobs-report bond-market reaction makes sense once you stop assuming falling oil automatically drags mortgage rates lower.
- Congress wants to hike VA loan fees
Gay Veale said Congress is advancing HR 9237 and S4744, a large veterans bill that includes good benefits for disabled veterans and surviving spouses but would pay for part of it…
- Jobs preview and why the Fed is still hawkish
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Federal Reserve is still hawkish partly because officials are overweighting the idea of a “mortgage rate lockdown,” which he says is a misleading…
- Here's how housing survived the Iran conflict
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing held up through the Iran conflict because affordability improved even as headlines got worse.
- How we might avoid rate hikes this year
Logan Mohtashami argues the odds of additional Fed tightening this year have improved because the biggest inflation shock from oil and the Middle East conflict has eased.
- Why this was a positive week for housing, but not new construction
Logan Mohtashami argued that the week was constructive for housing because the 10-year Treasury yield fell, mortgage rates stayed in the sixes, and the market avoided a worse…
- Why aren’t mortgage rates dropping along with oil prices?
Logan Mohtashami says mortgage rates have not fallen in step with oil because the market is no longer pricing rates off oil alone; it is pricing in Federal Reserve policy.
- Can housing hold up with rates near yearly highs?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the housing market is still holding up, but the rest of 2026 now depends more on Fed policy, labor data, and bond-market pricing than on the recent…
- The housing market trends that will shape the rest of 2026
The first half of 2026 looked less like a housing market in crisis than a market that had normalized.
- Can Trump get lower mortgage rates with Warsh at the Fed?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Fed meeting did not change the big picture for rates or housing: no rate cuts are priced in, one hike is already priced in, and mortgage rates…
- Warsh talks about Housing, but inflation is the problem
Logan Mohtashami argued that Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference was mildly positive for housing, even though the broader message was still hawkish.
- Darryl Davis on Google’s expansion into real estate listings
Google’s nationwide expansion of real estate listings inside mobile search could shift where consumers begin their home search and weaken the pull of Zillow and other portals.
- Will mortgage rates drop during Fed week?
Mortgage rates did not look set for a dramatic post-conflict collapse, because Logan Mohtashami argued the bond market had already priced in most of the shift.
- How many times will the Fed hike rates this year?
Logan Mohtashami said the Fed is likely to hold steady at this week’s meeting, but he expects the central bank to lose its easing bias and sound more openly hawkish under new…
- Mortgage rates and oil prices this week
Logan Mohtashami argued that this week’s Iran conflict has not produced the oil spike or bond-market selloff many expected.
- The fierce competition for listings gets hotter
Competition for real-estate listings is intensifying as MLSs push beyond their traditional geographic boundaries and as portals such as Zillow and CoStar fight over who controls…
- Existing home sales and the jump in first-time homebuyers
Existing home sales beat estimates and showed year-over-year growth, but Logan Mohtashami argued the result was not a surprise if you had been following recent tracker data.
- Clayton Collins on HousingWire’s acquisition of Keeping Current Matters
HousingWire’s acquisition of Keeping Current Matters is framed as a content and data play built around helping housing professionals make better decisions faster.
- Ongoing Iran conflict raises mortgage risk into late 2026
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Iran conflict matters for mortgage rates mainly through oil, inflation, and the Fed, and that the biggest risk is not a short flare-up but a…
- What the big beat on jobs means for mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest jobs report was strong enough to look normal, not recessionary, after a weak 2025 base.
- How jobs data will impact mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are being driven less by labor-market weakness than by inflation, conflict risk, and the bond market’s read on growth.
- Logan Mohtashami: It’s no longer labor over inflation
Logan Mohtashami argues that the market has moved from a labor-led disinflation story to one dominated by inflation risks, especially as energy prices and conflict keep pressure…
- Trump picks Pulte to lead national intelligence
Trump’s appointment of FHFA Director Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence was framed as a surprising but potentially positive development for housing.
- Finance of America’s Jonathan Scarpati on shifting consumer behavior
Jonathan Scarpati says the housing market has not simply slowed; it has fundamentally shifted as more homeowners stay put, age in place, and invest in their current homes rather…
- Why housing inventory just turned negative
Logan Mohtashami argued that the market is still reacting more to headlines from the Iran conflict than to a clear shift in fundamentals, and he said the bond market and oil…
- The good, the bad and the ugly are back for mortgage rates
Mortgage rates got a modest reprieve as Logan Mohtashami argued that the market is finally reacting to three forces at once: easing conflict risk, softer economic data, and a…
- What will mortgage rates do if the Iran conflict is really over?
Logan Mohtashami argued that a peace deal or de-escalation with Iran would not send mortgage rates straight back to pre-conflict levels.
- Have mortgage rates peaked or can they go higher?
Mortgage rates hit a yearly high at 6.75%, which Logan Mohtashami treats as the top end of his current forecast range, but not necessarily the ultimate peak.
- California innovates a new financing solution for disaster rebuilding
California MBA is working with the governor’s office on a rebuild fund for Southern California wildfire victims that would put a proposed $100 million allocation behind disaster…
- How broker consolidation is changing real estate market share
Brokerage consolidation is accelerating as Compass bought Anywhere, Real bought RE/MAX, and eXp bought NextHome, pushing the industry toward a multi-model structure that blends…
- How inflation is impacting mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami says the latest PPI reading was commodity-driven and fits a broader inflation backdrop that is still pressuring mortgage markets, even if the 10-year yield has…
- Positive housing demand is reducing inventory growth
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing demand has held up better than many bearish headlines suggest, even after the year’s rate shock and volatility tied to war and inflation…
- Will the next Fed move be a rate hike?
Logan Mohtashami argues that the latest jobs report shows labor data improving from a very low base, not booming, but enough to make the Federal Reserve less likely to cut rates.
- Jobs data, mortgage rates and housing demand
Logan Mohtashami argued that the labor market is still stabilizing, not breaking, and that the Federal Reserve likely has little reason to cut rates unless jobless claims…
- Why homes are selling faster even with more inventory
Rachel Bader argued that the housing market is shifting from an inventory shortage story to a transaction-efficiency story.
- ICE leaders on how climate risk affects housing affordability
The conversation argued that climate risk is no longer a distant housing-market issue; it is already affecting mortgage performance, insurance costs, and home values.
- The direction of home prices and the Fed’s civil war
Logan Mohtashami argued that national home prices are no longer in a bubble-burst dynamic, but in a period of normalization that looks more like the late 1970s and early 1980s…
- NAR CEO Nykia Wright on building transparency and trust
Nykia Wright said the National Association of Realtors is focused on helping members navigate a market shaped by higher interest rates, inflation, inventory constraints, and…
- Powell’s last Fed meeting as Fed chair
Purchase applications rose 2% week to week and 21% year over year, but Logan Mohtashami said the year-over-year gain is flattered by very low comps.
- Why AI-ready data is the real competitive edge in housing
Amy Gromowski argues that AI in housing is being held back less by ambition than by the quality and structure of the underlying data.
- HUD Secretary Scott Turner on cutting energy regulations for new construction
HUD Secretary Scott Turner argued that housing affordability depends on staying tightly focused on HUD’s mission and stripping away rules that raise costs without adding homes.
- Positive housing demand and a preview of the Fed meeting
Housing demand held up better than expected, with Logan Mohtashami pointing to weekly pending sales at a multi-year high, new listings above 80,000, and purchase applications…
- Why the housing market doesn’t turn all at once in 2026
HousingWire’s data review argues that the housing market does not turn all at once; instead, sellers push pricing, buyers respond, and then the two sides fall out of sync.
- Will Kevin Warsh be better for housing?
Logan Mohtashami argues that Kevin Warsh would likely be better for housing than Jerome Powell, but only at the margins.
- Total Expert CEO Joe Welu on building an always-on AI context engine
Total Expert is using AI to turn lender follow-up into a more persistent, context-rich service layer for borrowers.
- How the Iran Conflict and Falling Rates Are Impacting the Housing Market
Logan Mohtashami said the Iran conflict has not produced the kind of bond-market panic that would normally push mortgage rates sharply higher.
- What will housing data look like when the Iran conflict is over?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the market has already moved past the worst-case Iran conflict scenario, with the 10-year yield, oil prices, and mortgage-rate spreads all improving…
- Sue Woodard on where AI fits in the mortgage landscape
Sue Woodard argues that the mortgage industry’s long-running technology problem is less about missing tools than about adoption, workflow design, and human behavior.
- The companies moving up the RealTrends Verified rankings
Tracey Velt says the biggest story in the 2025 RealTrends Verified rankings is not the top four, which remain stable, but the fast movers in the middle of the list.
- Is the Fed gearing up for rate cuts or rate hikes after the war?
Logan Mohtashami said the market is trying to reconcile a 10-year Treasury yield around 4.27% with rising inflation, an oil shock, and new Fed messaging that leans against…
- Explaining the housing inventory story in 2026
Logan Mohtashami argued that the housing market is still grinding through a normalizing phase rather than breaking into a new boom or bust.
- How inflation is going to impact mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest inflation data and the Middle East war have pushed mortgage-rate expectations into a more complicated range.
- Does the ceasefire give housing room to grow?
The ceasefire headlines mattered mainly because they briefly pulled oil and the 10-year yield lower, which Logan Mohtashami argued is the key variable for mortgage rates and…
- LPT Realty’s Robert Palmer on M&A, private listings and how he’s driving growth
Robert Palmer said LPT Realty was built to give agents more flexibility than the traditional cap model or the standard 100% brokerage.
- How is the housing market holding up amid global shocks?
Housing data has held up better than many expected even as war headlines, oil-price spikes and market volatility have intensified.
- What the jobs report means for mortgage rates
The strong April jobs report, with payrolls up 178,000 and the unemployment rate lower, did not change Logan Mohtashami’s broader view that the labor market is still cooling…
- Bill Dallas on the right risks to take in this housing market
Bill Dallas argues that the current housing market is dangerous because volatility is so high, but that confusion creates the biggest opportunity for disciplined mortgage…
- Shant Banosian on the tactics that keep him a top originator
HousingWire’s new mortgage rankings, powered by Ingenious Data and based on recorded mortgage transactions rather than submissions, put Shant Banosian’s production in a different…
- Will mortgage rates get ahead of oil prices?
Logan Mohtashami argues that mortgage rates may get ahead of oil prices if bond traders start pricing in an end to the Iran conflict before oil fully cools.
- The best and worst case for housing as the Iran war continues
Logan Mohtashami says the housing market’s path now depends on how far the Iran war escalates and how that moves oil, the 10-year yield, and mortgage rates.
- Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing
Logan Mohtashami argues that housing is now being pulled around by a war-driven headline market, with oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield moving together as news from the…
- Rocket’s Joe Rath on the Compass partnership and private listings
Joe Rath said Rocket’s partnership with Compass is built around seller choice, not secrecy: the companies want MLS rules to allow a staged marketing process where homes can start…
- Mortgage rates fell on Iran war news. What's next?
Mortgage rates and Treasury yields whipsawed on fresh Iran-war headlines, with Logan Mohtashami arguing that the market is reacting to escalation risk more than to any settled…
- Iran war escalation spurs mortgage rate volatility
Logan Mohtashami argued that the recent escalation in the Iran conflict has already changed the mortgage-rate outlook for 2026 by pushing the 10-year yield sharply higher and…
- What Trump’s order to modernize appraisals will mean for housing
The discussion focused on the Trump administration’s executive order on appraisal modernization and how it lines up with changes already underway in the mortgage industry.
- Logan Mohtashami on the Fed meeting and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami said the Fed meeting landed more hawkish than expected, with Jerome Powell signaling that rate cuts are off the table unless inflation improves.
- ICE’s Andy Walden on the spring housing market
Andy Walden said the spring housing market entered 2026 with more optimism than the prior few years because mortgage rates had eased, spreads had compressed, affordability was at…
- Housing demand remains positive for now
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.41% on Friday as war-related volatility pushed the 10-year yield and spreads higher, but Logan Mohtashami said the housing market is still holding up…
- Will Iran conflict make the Fed hawkish this week?
Logan Mohtashami said the Fed will almost certainly hold rates steady next week, and he argued that the Iran conflict makes a hawkish surprise more likely than a dovish one.
- Unemployment, consumer sentiment and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that the war-related spike in oil prices has put the 10-year yield and mortgage rates in a tug of war.
- Positive spring housing outlook at risk from escalating Iran war
Logan Mohtashami argued that spring housing was starting from a relatively positive position: existing home sales, purchase applications, and pending sales were all improving…
- How rising oil prices affect mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argues that the surge in oil prices has not yet been enough to force a decisive move in the 10-year Treasury yield or mortgage rates, even as oil briefly nears…
- The big miss on jobs, escalating oil prices and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argues that the market’s reaction to the weak jobs report is being overwhelmed by the surge in oil prices and the Iran conflict.
- Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war spreads
Mortgage rates are being kept near 6% by improving mortgage spreads even as the Iran conflict pushes oil higher and tests the bond market.
- Why mortgage rates are near 6% amid the war with Iran
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates near 6% and the 10-year yield around 4.07% make more sense than many traders think, even amid war headlines and hotter inflation data.
- NAR’s Jessica Lautz on expectations for the spring housing market
Mortgage rates have been drifting down, and Jessica Lautz said that is already improving the setup for the spring housing market.
- How war with Iran could affect mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argues that the Iran war has pushed mortgage rates higher, but only modestly so far.
- The economic wild cards that could lower mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argues that the key mortgage-rate story for the rest of 2026 is not just inflation, but whether the economy weakens enough to trigger a flight to safety.
- Trump’s housing policies and home prices
Logan Mohtashami argued that the State of the Union offered little new on housing and mostly recycled familiar themes, including Trump’s push to restrict large institutional…
- Tariff news, potential war with Iran and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that mortgage rates are being shaped more by stable Fed policy and compressed volatility than by the day’s geopolitical headlines.
- How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariff approach matters for mortgage rates mainly because it removes the threat of “Godzilla tariffs,” but…
- Brooklee Han on lessons learned from the Olympics
Brooklee Han says her Olympic skating career and her current work as a senior real estate reporter are connected by the same habits: discipline, persistence, storytelling, and…
- MBA’s Marina Walsh on the housing market outlook
Marina Walsh said the MBA expects originations to rise 8% to $2.2 trillion, but she framed the outlook as a mixed K-shaped economy.
- New construction update: Housing starts and homebuilder confidence
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest housing starts and builder-confidence data do not signal a real construction boom, even if the headline numbers beat estimates or hit a…
- Interpreting the latest housing data on demand and inventory
Logan Mohtashami argues that the latest housing data is best understood as a continuation of a trend that began in mid-June, not as evidence of a sudden housing crash.
- Inflation and the AI conundrum
Inflation came in slightly below expectations on both a year-over-year and month-to-month basis, and Logan Mohtashami said that was not a sign of breakout inflation.
- The drop in existing home sales and what’s happening with inventory
Logan Mohtashami argued that January’s drop in existing home sales was not a meaningful warning sign, but a predictable distortion from the holidays, winter weather, and data…
- What the jobs data means for mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that the January jobs report looked stronger than it really was because the labor market is still being propped up by a narrow set of industries, mainly…
- The White House game plan to lower mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami argued that the White House can influence mortgage rates only indirectly, and that the real constraints are inflation, the labor market, the 10-year Treasury…
- What will come of Trump’s potential probe into homebuilders?
The discussion focused on Trump’s reported interest in probing homebuilders, which Logan Mohtashami argued would not change the industry’s basic economics.
- What to make of the negative labor data
The episode argues that the latest run of weak labor data is pushing the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates lower, even before the official BLS jobs report.
- Jobs data preview and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami said the key driver for mortgage rates remains labor data, not the political noise around the Fed.
- Will housing inventory drop in 2026?
Logan Mohtashami says the early 2026 housing data is holding up better than he expected, even after a major snowstorm hit much of the country.
- Mike Simonsen on where he’s seeing traction for the spring housing market
Mike Simonsen said the spring housing market is showing more traction than last year, with sales running about 5% above last year’s pace, inventory growth slowing, and some…
- Logan Mohtashami on Trump’s home price remarks and Kevin Warsh
Logan Mohtashami argued that President Trump’s comments about wanting to keep home prices high for existing owners do not change the housing market’s basic math.
- Jason Mitchell on lawsuits targeting the lender/agent relationship
Jason Mitchell argues that the wave of lawsuits targeting lender-agent referral relationships is mostly a carbon copy of earlier mortgage and real estate cases, and that the…
- What does Warsh as Fed chair mean for mortgage rates?
Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair is framed as a loyalty pick that could make Fed communications sound more dovish, but not as a reset that would automatically drive…
- What a united Fed could mean for mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami said the Fed meeting signaled a more unified central bank that is likely to keep rates unchanged unless the labor market weakens materially.
- Home prices and why Trump might be waiting to name a Fed chair
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest Case-Shiller data fit HousingWire’s broader read on the housing market: national home-price momentum has cooled, but not in the dramatic…
- Positive housing demand and what to expect from Fed week
Housing demand is starting 2026 on a stronger footing than the last few years, with Logan Mohtashami saying this is the best start to the year in a long time.
- 2026 spring housing market stability
Logan Mohtashami argued that the 2026 spring housing market looks healthier because the data is stabilizing rather than swinging wildly.
- Mortgage rates and labor data, plus the next Fed chair
Logan Mohtashami argued that housing is still in a better setup than it was over the last three years, but the key risk for mortgage rates is that the labor market may be…
- Housing policy and pending home sales
Logan Mohtashami argued that Trump’s Davos remarks and recent housing-related executive action are mostly noise until they are actually implemented.
- Bob Broeksmit on Trump housing policies
Bob Broeksmit said the Mortgage Bankers Association is pressing the Trump administration and Congress on a set of affordability measures it believes could lower housing costs…
- The DOJ’s interest in real estate commissions — and trade groups
The DOJ is still pressing into real estate commission disputes, filing a statement of interest in the Davis home-buyer commission lawsuit and arguing that policies adopted by a…
- Will we see quantitative easing with a new Fed chair?
Logan Mohtashami argues that a new Fed chair would not suddenly restart quantitative easing to force mortgage rates lower.
- What will it take to crash or accelerate home prices in 2026?
Logan Mohtashami argued that 2026 home prices are likely to stay in a narrow range rather than crash or reaccelerate sharply.
- A shockingly good existing home sales report
Logan Mohtashami said the latest existing home sales data was a meaningful upside surprise and fits a broader pattern of housing holding up better as mortgage rates eased.
- Freddie Mac’s Jodi Eberhardt on more efficient mortgage origination
Freddie Mac’s Jodi Eberhardt said the company’s cost-to-originate study shows mortgage lenders have improved profitability, but costs remain elevated.
- Inflation and new home sales
Logan Mohtashami said the latest inflation report was tamer than expected and argued that the bigger driver for mortgage rates remains volatile mortgage spreads, not the…
- The DOJ vs. the Fed, plus inventory and mortgage rates
Logan Mohtashami says the DOJ’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell and the Fed is mostly another wild headline unless it actually changes Senate behavior around Powell’s…
- Logan Mohtashami on banning institutional investors
Logan Mohtashami argued that President Trump’s plan to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes is mostly a political signal, not a policy that would…
- Fannie and Freddie to buy $200B in MBS to lower mortgage rates
Trump’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities is being framed as a way to keep mortgage rates lower, but Logan Mohtashami…
- Jobs week, mortgage rates and the Fed
Logan Mohtashami said the day’s jobs data was mixed for mortgage rates: the ADP report was a slight miss and pushed bond yields down a bit, but the job openings data surprised to…
- The most important housing data for 2026
Logan Mohtashami argues that the HousingWire tracker matters in 2026 because the housing market is no longer in the extreme, one-directional conditions of 2020 through 2022.
- What to look for in the jobs week data
Logan Mohtashami said the main market question this week is not geopolitics but how the bond market reacts to jobs data.
- Revisiting the mortgage rate lockdown, now with more data
Logan Mohtashami argues that the so-called mortgage rate lockdown was always overstated and that the new three-year data set confirms it.
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