Episode summary
The drop in existing home sales and what’s happening with inventory
HousingWire Daily
· · 14 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that January’s drop in existing home sales was not a meaningful warning sign, but a predictable distortion from the holidays, winter weather, and data timing. He said December’s elevated pace, the two holiday weeks, and later snow effects can make the next report look much worse than the underlying trend, so the market should be judged on what happens once conditions normalize.
He pointed to active inventory at 1.22 million and said the market is moving back toward balance rather than shortage. For him, the key range is roughly 1.52 million to 1.93 million active listings, or about four months of supply, which he sees as a functioning level for buyers and sellers. He said higher inventory, slower price growth, better affordability, and improving mortgage spreads are all helping the market.
Mohtashami’s broader view was that the housing market is healthier than it was in 2020 through early 2022, when rates, prices, and inventory made conditions “savagely unhealthy.” He expects 2026 to produce 237,000 more existing home sales if rates stay under 6.25, and he said the spring market could gain traction because the usual distortions are fading.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said January’s sales decline was mostly holiday and weather noise, not a sign of a new downtrend.
- He said 1.22 million active listings is moving the market toward balance, with roughly 1.52 million to 1.93 million active listings representing a workable level.
- Mohtashami expects 2026 to add 237,000 existing home sales if mortgage rates stay below 6.25.
- He said better affordability, slower price growth, and improved mortgage spreads should support a healthier spring market.
- Mohtashami sees Florida, Texas, and Colorado as healthier markets because inventory there is closer to price discovery.
Notable quotes
“whenever you're working from an elevated levels of sales in, you know, uh uh for December, okay, and then you have the holidays, the two weeks in the middle, things going to just completely shut down”
“for me it's always been the same. You get 1.52 to 1.93 4 months of supply. We're good, right? There's there's there's no shortage”
“Affordability got better on its own just because inventories up and price growth”
“normal active listings going back decades is two to two and a half million”
“balance is a good thing and that's what we want to see in the housing market”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about existing home sales and inventory and what to make of the uh most recent numbers. First, I want to say thank you to our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is wonderful to be here and and saying I told you so just doesn't cut it with today's existing hope sales report and uh a big headline miss but not shocking to me and you know before the the report came out a few hours I was putting on Twitter that you know you could even have a sub4 million print uh because whenever and the N kind of didn't understand this when they were trying to explain it on on X as Well, whenever you're working from an elevated levels of sales in, you know, uh uh for December, okay, and then you have the holidays, the two weeks in the middle, things going to just completely shut down. Happens all the time actually, but it's depends on where your sales levels are.
So, uh, in this context, a lot of people thought it was the weather and that January and February's existing home sales report are going to get hit by the weather, but we didn't even write the tracker the last two weeks of the year or the first week just because that's it's going to be useless because people are going to make something big out of it. And then then you have to wait for the snow thing to get out of the data line, which could be probably March, which means the reports that come in April. And then you have to put the rebound effect uh uh into that because as soon as you know we we got the year started things just went back kind of to normal now the closings and the lack of people uh uh uh going out and doing stuff would be seen in the data and then you just move on from there and it just perfectly looks looks fine.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- existing home sales
- inventory levels
- housing market
- winter weather
- homebuyer demand
Watch the episode
Watch “The drop in existing home sales and what’s happening with inventory” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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