Episode summary
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 20 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the key forces for rates this week are politics and labor data, not housing fundamentals alone. He says the midterms matter because they could alter the trajectory of tariffs and the Iran conflict, both of which have helped keep the Federal Reserve more hawkish. If those pressures ease, he thinks inflation could cool enough to help the 10-year yield drift lower and eventually support mortgage rates.
He also says the jobs data released so far has been healthy, with job openings, hires and quits up and layoffs down, which nudged yields higher. But he frames that strength as part of a resilient U.S. economy rather than a problem in itself. In his view, the labor market and consumer balance sheets have held up for years because of tighter credit rules and a consumption-based economy.
For housing, Logan says the 10-year yield is still the main driver. Mortgage demand tends to improve when rates fall below 6.64% and move toward 6%, while moves above 6.64% and especially above 7% slow demand materially. He says a path to sub-7% mortgage rates is still possible if tariffs and the Middle East conflict cool off, but the week’s jobs report will be an important test.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says the midterms could matter for rates because they may influence tariffs and the Iran conflict, both of which have pushed the Fed to sound more hawkish.
- He says this week’s jobs data has been positive, with job openings, hires and quits up and layoffs down, which gave the 10-year yield a slight lift.
- Mohtashami argues the 10-year yield is still the main housing driver, with mortgage demand improving below 6.64% and weakening above that level, especially above 7%.
- He says a sub-7% mortgage-rate path is back on the table if inflation pressures from tariffs and oil ease.
- Mohtashami believes the U.S. economy has stayed unusually resilient because consumer debt growth has been constrained by post-crisis lending rules.
Notable quotes
“I got to this AI boom is going to keep things going while I do this trade war”
“the only thing that materially changed demand is the 10year-old going up and the 10ear yield going down”
“when mortgage rates get below 6.64 and head towards six demand picks up”
“it all just backfires”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the midterms and jobs week. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First is our exclusive interview with rate CEO Victor Seardelli on the merger of Rate and Compass into a top 10 retail lender, followed by Housing Wire's 2026 tech trends setters. Then we have real estate is moving toward data privacy. Appraisers say UAD36 is moving the other way and open real estate gets a boost from independence.
Finally, we have better founder Vashall Gar details Tinman AI platform shift. Okay, we are ready to dive in. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. This is day two of the crazy week. Um, and today we will be addressing something that you love so much, midterms, politics.
But, um, it it's it's, you know, I I've always had this thing throughout the years that, of course, anybody who knows me, I don't even I rarely talk about politics. And I just believe economics is demographics and productivity. The rest is stamp collecting.
But in this case, we do have something. We have two items that you know uh the president chose to do that has impacted the economic data. And the the midterms are going to be a judge of that uh um whenever the outcome comes.
And it's jobs week this week. So, uh, for this episode, we're going to talk about both things and and how it plays itself out, uh, uh, for the end of this, uh, week. And does a 10-year yield just hold that head and shoulders?
Does it break up higher? Does it go lower? You know, and, uh, uh, what what do we think of the data that we've seen so far?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterms impact on rates
- jobs report impact on rates
- mortgage rates outlook
- housing market rates
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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