Episode summary
Fed day preview and the latest Tracker data
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami says the Fed is not expected to hike this week, and that the market has already priced in a pause until December. He argues the recent surge in the 10-year yield and term premium has probably gotten the Federal Reserve’s attention, even if officials have not said so publicly, because policymakers do not want markets getting too far ahead of themselves while oil prices, inflation concerns and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
On housing, he says the latest tracker data show demand finally stopped deteriorating after mortgage rates eased slightly. Weekly pending sales turned positive for the first time after five straight weeks of declines, but he stresses that the improvement is still small and would need about 12 weeks of positive data to count as a material shift. He expects the next purchase application report may also show a week-over-week improvement.
Mohtashami also says mortgage spreads remain a key cushion for affordability. Even though spreads have worsened a bit from this year’s lows, they are still near multi-year lows, which is why mortgage rates are near 7% rather than above 8%. New listings are only slightly down year over year, active inventory is still rising, and price cuts are a bit higher than last year, but he says the overall market remains relatively stable.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami expects no Fed rate hike this week and says the market has already pushed any possible move into December.
- He says the 10-year yield nearing 5.35% and rising term premium likely made the Fed uncomfortable even if officials did not say so publicly.
- He says weekly pending home sales finally stopped falling, but it would take roughly 12 weeks of positive data to mark a real demand turn.
- He argues mortgage spreads are still near multi-year lows, helping keep mortgage rates near 7% instead of above 8%.
- He says new listings are slightly down year over year, active inventory is rising, and price cuts are slightly above last year’s level, but not dramatically so.
Notable quotes
“Obviously, they're not going to hike. The market is really, really priced in no rate hike”
“when that thing holds, boy, bond traders, they all look at each other and go the other way and they they go the other way”
“You need about 12 weeks of positive forward-looking data to have a material change”
“the spreads, even though they've increased, are still near multi-year lows and that has kept rates near 7% rather than being above 8%”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Mohtashami for a Fed preview and to talk about what the latest housing market tracker data shows us on spreads, inventory, and more. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
First, we have four real estate giants team up to create new shared listings platform. Followed by FICO freezes $10 mortgage score bundle price. Then we have housing leaders weigh in on Trump's scaled-back executive order.
And slightly lower mortgage rates finally pause slide in housing demand. And lastly, appraisers warn of risks as more real estate listings go private. Okay, we're ready to jump in.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. I think you and I both watched the same movie over the weekend. — Oh my gosh. You You can see everything. It was wild. — And I never thought anybody on planet Earth can can outdo Elizabeth Holmes on her own documentary thing, but her boyfriend, holy Toledo. I mean, I literally just left the movie theater thinking of pudding or how Harley Quinn used to talk to the Joker. And I was like, you know, these two are perfect for each other like Harley Quinn and the Joker are perfect for each other. So
That was a crazy movie. It was a very It was like 3 hours of being uncomfortable. — Yeah, I just you got a bunch of awkward people just or whatever. It was just I'll stick to my charts and the 10-year yield and oil prices and stuff, but wow.
Okay, well, let's talk about what is happening this week. We have so much to get to. Let's start with the Anthropic S1, right? Dropped before their uh hopeful IPO.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed day preview
- housing market tracker data
- mortgage rates
- housing demand
- housing inventory and spreads
Watch the episode
Watch “Fed day preview and the latest Tracker data” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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