Episode summary
Inflation and the AI conundrum
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Inflation came in slightly below expectations on both a year-over-year and month-to-month basis, and Logan Mohtashami said that was not a sign of breakout inflation. He noted the 10-year Treasury yield fell only modestly and remains trapped in a narrow range, which has kept mortgage rates in the low 6s rather than jumping back toward 7%.
Mohtashami argued that the bigger macro story is still labor over inflation. He said the labor market is softer but not breaking, with job growth heavily concentrated in a few sectors and overall breadth still weak. In his view, some Federal Reserve officials remain inflation-focused, but the labor data and repeated revisions argue for a more cautious stance.
On AI, he pushed back hard on the idea that it is already wiping out jobs across the economy. He said AI has not hit construction, housing, or manufacturing in the data, and that fears of mass unemployment run into demographics: aging baby boomers, slowing population growth, and the need for replacement workers. He said the better long-term lens is demographics and productivity, not a single technology story.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said inflation was a little softer than expected, but not soft enough to trigger a major move in rates.
- He said the 10-year yield is stuck in a roughly 30 to 35 basis point range, which has kept mortgage rates in the low 6s.
- Mohtashami argued the labor market is softer but not breaking, with job gains concentrated in only a few sectors.
- He said AI is not yet showing up as a meaningful drag on construction, housing, or manufacturing employment.
- Mohtashami said demographics, not AI, are the key reason mass unemployment is unlikely, because aging workers still need replacement.
- He said immigration and population growth matter for both labor supply and housing demand over time.
Notable quotes
“It was a smidge underestimates on the year-over-year and the month-to-month”
“you know, you're not having the breakaway inflation that maybe some people had uh thought about”
“the 10-year yield fell a few basis points. Nothing too dramatic”
“AI has not impacted manufacturing. Those are the data lines that have been negative uh uh out there”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moashami to talk about inflation and whether AI is a bubble or is actually going to wipe out a lot of jobs. As always, I want to thank our sponsor Trust and Will for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. It is CPI inflation Friday. And this whole week was actually kind of funny because we went from AI being this giant bubble that's going to burst or now AI is going to destroy everything and kill all the jobs. So people are asking about the housing component of this. So a lot of drama again another week of you know headlines. So uh the trend continues.
The trend continues. Okay. Well let's start with that inflation number. What are you looking at there?
So, the report just came out. It was a smidge underestimates on the year-over-year and the month-to-month. Um, the 10-year yield fell a few basis points.
Nothing too dramatic. So, of depending on how Friday trades out, you know, it can be very volatile. Um, but, you know, you're not having the breakaway inflation that maybe some people had uh thought about.
And also the Federal Reserve has talked about this that you know the one-time price offs they get adjusted into 2026. So uh they believe the growth rate of inflation will cool down from their 3% level. Um I think we had headline 2.4%.
So um nothing too surprising on the uh inflation front but again uh the last time I checked the 10-year yield was at 4.08%. Uh uh so where we're almost down to four, but again we are at the lower level range of the 10-year yield for some time now, really since the start of September.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- inflation
- ai job displacement
- mortgage rates
- housing market
- labor market impact
Watch the episode
Watch “Inflation and the AI conundrum” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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