Episode summary
What the jobs data means for mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the January jobs report looked stronger than it really was because the labor market is still being propped up by a narrow set of industries, mainly healthcare and social services. He said the 130,000 payroll gain was treated as a big beat only because expectations for job creation have fallen so far, and he emphasized that revisions have become a defining feature of the data. Even so, he said the report does not show the labor market breaking, which is what the Federal Reserve wants to see before it moves more aggressively on rates.
For mortgage rates, Logan said the bond market’s reaction was limited because spreads have improved and there are already rate cuts in the system. He said the 10-year yield popped after the report but did not stay materially higher, and mortgage rates barely moved, which he framed as evidence that 2026 is not 2023. He also said the setup gives the Fed hawks room to argue against cuts, because stronger labor data reduces pressure on policymakers.
Looking ahead, Logan said existing home sales should still benefit from better spreads and a rate environment near 6.25% or lower, even with snow and seasonal noise distorting the near-term data. He argued that higher inventory, slower price growth and better affordability should keep improving conditions through the year.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said January’s 130,000 payroll gain looked like a beat only because labor expectations are now extremely low.
- He argued that healthcare and social services are still doing most of the work in job growth, while broader labor momentum remains weak.
- Mohtashami said the report gave Fed hawks cover to delay cuts because it does not show the labor market “breaking.”
- He said mortgage spreads are acting as a defensive mechanism, limiting how much a jobs surprise can push mortgage rates higher.
- For existing home sales, Mohtashami expects better affordability and lower rates to support activity if 6.25% and under holds.
- He said 2026 is different from 2023 because rate cuts and improved spreads are cushioning the bond and mortgage markets.
Notable quotes
“the Federal Reserve will need to see the labor market breaking before they take that next step”
“anything above 50,000 is a beat”
“the 10-year yield had gone lower the day before. It shot up right after the jobs report”
“the spreads give you a little bit of protection, limits the damage”
“If you stay 6 and a quarter and under, you could get 237,000 more home sales than last year”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about that big jobs report and what it really means. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Trust and Will for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
Were we just on stage in another city? — We were. Yes. Well, I'm still in Dallas. You're now in Atlanta. I think — I'm in Atlanta. First time in Atlanta, you know. So, uh, uh, I always love the Ner tour in places I've never been to. So,
I know some people say Atlanta. Atlanta. Anyway, Atlanta is how I say it.
Um, all right. We have a lot to talk about. Most importantly, the jobs report, jobs Friday that came out on jobs Wednesday.
And really interesting, supposedly big beat, but let's dig into it. You know, a few months ago, we we did a podcast like what could be the green shoots or the foundation for an outperforming 2026. And you know, the bar is so low for jobs that, you know, anything can beat estimates.
And one of the things that we all deal with now are these, you know, revision trends, right? In in the big scheme of things, the revisions are just a minor portion of the workforce, but they can bring the headline numbers down. So,
The job creation numbers for 2025 ended up being 181,000 alto together like they revised them. — That was a whole year. — Um, average 15,000 a year. Mind that when we started the year, the Fed was like solid, labor market solid, everything's great.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs data
- mortgage rates
- existing home sales
Watch the episode
Watch “What the jobs data means for mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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