Episode summary
The White House game plan to lower mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 21 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the White House can influence mortgage rates only indirectly, and that the real constraints are inflation, the labor market, the 10-year Treasury yield, and mortgage spreads. He said the Trump administration’s push for lower rates fits a broader political message, but that the Fed cannot simply decree mortgage rates lower, even if some officials argue policy is too restrictive.
He said housing has improved as rates moved near 6%, spreads normalized, and volatility compressed, which has helped affordability and demand. But he warned that getting mortgage rates much below the current range is difficult unless labor data weakens further or spreads improve more. He pointed to the upcoming jobs report, slowing wage growth, and mixed employment trends in manufacturing and residential construction as the key signals that will shape the Fed debate.
Mohtashami also used the housing tracker to show how the market has shifted since mid-June: inventory growth slowed, purchase applications fell sharply during winter weather, and price cuts have eased versus last year’s peak. His broader message was that the housing market is moving toward a more normal, less volatile environment rather than a 2008-style collapse.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the White House can market lower mortgage rates, but the Fed and mortgage markets are still constrained by yields, spreads, and labor data.
- He said mortgage rates near 6% already make housing “work” better, while a move below 5.75% would be hard without weaker data or better spreads.
- Mohtashami said the labor market is slowing, but not uniformly collapsing, with job openings down, unemployment up, and wage growth cooling.
- He said the tracker shows inventory growth, purchase applications, and price cuts have all shifted since mid-June as rates moved lower.
- Mohtashami rejected 2008 comparisons, saying delinquency data remain historically low and the market looks more normal than broken.
Notable quotes
“I think they just want to like push that through by getting a message out there”
“there's limits to what the White House and and the Fed chairman can do uh in this situation”
“it's it's just so hard for me to get the 10-year yield below 380 and mortgage rates really below 5.75”
“near six is just makes it work. And not only that, the volatility is less”
“Doesn't feel like 2008”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about mortgage rates and whether the White House or the Fed can really lower them from where we are now. Before we jump in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. And here we are in person because of the Housing Economic Summit. Yes, by the time this uh podcast comes out, I get to be with all my uh economic nerdy friends for a day and uh I get to see Mike Simson, who I haven't seen for a while.
So, uh I'm a happy camper.
It is going to be amazing. Um, okay, let's get into it. Let's get into rates because we have had things coming out from the Fed.
We've had the Trump White House uh posting on social that they think they can get mortgage rates down uh 50 basis points. Let's let's talk about that and what you see there. So I think there's a you know there's a obviously we're there's a midterm push um I think ICE came out with an article saying that affordability as is at the best levels in four years.
Obviously mortgage spreads which were getting better um toward the end of uh 2025 and then when that announcement came had another little extra leg lower. Uh I know PY talked about uh G fees uh uh uh coming lower out here, but it goes back to our original premise we did November 7th, 2024 after Trump won for if this whole Trump game plan to work, he needs lower energy prices. He needs a lower dollar and he needs lower rates.
And energy prices have come down. Uh he's got the dollar lower.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- white house policy
- mortgage affordability
- refinancing
- january rate declines
Watch the episode
Watch “The White House game plan to lower mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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