Episode summary
What will come of Trump’s potential probe into homebuilders?
HousingWire Daily
· · 18 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
The discussion focused on Trump’s reported interest in probing homebuilders, which Logan Mohtashami argued would not change the industry’s basic economics. He said builders are not going to produce a construction boom just because of political pressure, because they respond to demand, land costs, margins, and the amount of existing inventory they must work through. In his view, the industry is still dealing with a supply-and-demand equilibrium problem after completed units finally caught up to sales after 14 years.
Mohtashami also pushed back on the idea that builders are intentionally withholding affordable supply. He said the market is cyclical, that builders have historically operated to maximize profit, and that affordability is a much more complicated issue than simple rhetoric suggests. He framed the probe as more political than practical, especially with midterms approaching and the administration looking for visible action.
On existing home sales, he said the year started positively but weather and seasonal disruptions are likely to weigh on the next report. He described mortgage rates as unusually stable near 6%, with lower volatility, normal spreads, and a healthier backdrop for buyers and sellers than in 2022-2025.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said Trump’s possible homebuilder probe is unlikely to change builders’ behavior because they still need demand, margin discipline, and workable land costs.
- Mohtashami said the industry is still working through a supply-and-demand imbalance, with completed units finally catching up to sales after 14 years.
- He argued that builders do not underbuild on purpose; they scale construction when sales, confidence, and permits improve.
- The existing-home market started the year well, but he expects snow and holiday timing to distort the next sales report.
- Mohtashami said mortgage rates near 6% and calmer spread behavior have created a much healthier operating environment than the volatility seen in 2022-2025.
Notable quotes
“They are not the March of Dimes”
“the builders have a supply and demand equilibrium problem because the completed units of sales have finally caught up after 14 years”
“So, if anybody had a 7% plus mortgage rate or 8% mortgage rate, anyone could refinance that out because there's enough time out there”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the latest news on Trump and homebuilders and what we might see there as well as existing home sales. First, I want to thank our sponsor Trust and Will for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is wonderful to be here and just like 10 minutes before we got on, we saw the headline of Trump, you know, possibly doing a, you know, probe into the homebuilder uh uh uh industry.
Yeah. So interesting. There's not that much he can do about this, right? I mean, the government doesn't own those. Th those are companies that are in the business to make money. What do you always say? What's your what's your famous line?
They are not the March of Dimes. So
The March of Dimes. So what could he do? I don't know.
He could probably take like a big stake in them, you know, like the I mean, we're like big government put buying, you know, stakes into companies and doing tariffs, you know, all this stuff. So, I mean, it's kind of the error of big government anyway. So, uh, who knows what what can maybe possibly outcome out of it.
But, but let's kind of go back to, you know, why am I never a construction boom guy? Like, it's never This is good.
It's never It's never been my thing. I just think mature economies as they get older and population growth slows down. We just don't build uh homes like you know a young country would. Uh and every decade that goes by, existing inventory just dwarfs what the builders can um put out there. So in I and I'll go to the graves with this.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- trump probe
- homebuilders
- new home sales
- existing home sales
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “What will come of Trump’s potential probe into homebuilders?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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