Episode summary
Have mortgage rates peaked or can they go higher?
HousingWire Daily
· · 20 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Mortgage rates hit a yearly high at 6.75%, which Logan Mohtashami treats as the top end of his current forecast range, but not necessarily the ultimate peak. He says the move was driven by a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.68%, plus tighter mortgage spreads, sticky inflation, firmer labor data, and the ongoing conflict that has kept risk premiums elevated.
Mohtashami argues that a lot is already priced in. In his view, the market has largely removed 2026 rate cuts and is now pricing in roughly one rate hike, so another major leg higher would require either a hotter inflation backdrop, more hawkish Fed commentary, or a prolonged conflict that keeps oil and input costs elevated. He says the next 30 days are especially important.
Even in his worst-case scenario, he does not see mortgage rates anywhere near 8% from current conditions alone. He says a further 37 to 43 basis points higher would get rates over 7%, but that the bigger swing factor is whether the conflict eases and bond yields retreat. Purchase demand has held up for now, with purchase applications still positive year over year despite the jump in rates.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says 6.75% mortgage rates marked the top end of his current forecast, but not a confirmed final peak.
- He sees 37 to 43 basis points of additional upside if the conflict persists, inflation stays hot, and the Fed turns more hawkish.
- Mohtashami says the market has already priced out rate cuts and priced in about one rate hike, limiting how much further mortgage rates can rise from here.
- He argues that without the conflict, he would not have expected the 10-year yield to reach 4.60% and mortgage rates to reach 6.75%.
- Purchase applications were still positive year over year, and he says housing data has held up better than expected so far.
Notable quotes
“we are at a top end of a range. We've priced in a lot”
“if we can get a authentic deal, right? If we could just a a an authentic deal and everyone's willing to get let the straight go and, you know, you know, you know, around here is the peak”
“I could get you 37 to 43 basis points just as is with the current data right now from using a 6.75 basis points”
“the rate cuts are out of the system, and you got a rate hike”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motashami to talk about mortgage rates and whether we've seen the peak for that this year. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this episode possible.
And here's the recap of the top five trending stories on housingwire.com. Mortgage rate coverage is dominating. Logan just wrote an article on how high mortgage rates can go, which is climbing the charts.
And we have one on can the housing market weather the storm as mortgage rates climb past 6.7%. Next up is the latest in the Zillow fight with Emred, lenders wrestling with the nuance of credit score pricing, and one of a series of stories featuring firms in the Real Trends Game Changer rankings, Equity Union Real Estate. We have so much to talk about, so Logan, let's dive in.
Welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. I I got my Miami vibe. You know, we just came back from our 31st event of the year.
It is not even the end of May yet. I think we did like 25 26 last year. Okay, that sounds crazy.
Um So Logan, I have to say I love this uh Miami Vice vibe you've got going on. I don't think I've ever seen you wear that kind of like print. Like you you look like you just stepped off the beach.
Yeah, yeah. I just came back from Miami, so I just kept kept the shirt on. So here we go. Amazing. Okay, so wow, what a day, right? So you you wrote that article. Things were going crazy in this morning. I think that the uh mortgage rates Tell us like what happened with mortgage rates and the 10-year yield today based on the news.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- ten-year yields
- mortgage affordability
- federal credit score models
- real estate listing feeds
Watch the episode
Watch “Have mortgage rates peaked or can they go higher?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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