Episode summary
What will mortgage rates do if the Iran conflict is really over?
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that a peace deal or de-escalation with Iran would not send mortgage rates straight back to pre-conflict levels. He said the market had already priced in a lot of the drama, and that the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates were being driven by a mix of geopolitics, inflation pressure, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. His base case for 2026, assuming no conflict, is a 10-year yield around 4.60 and a 30-year mortgage rate around 6.75%.
He said the first reaction to easing tension made sense, with the 10-year yield briefly moving toward 4.24 and then rebounding, but he stressed that getting under 6% mortgage rates would take more than the conflict ending. It would likely require weaker economic and labor data, plus time for spreads to normalize and for the Fed’s stance to soften. He also said mortgage spreads have actually improved recently, limiting how far rates rose during the conflict.
On housing, Logan said demand has held up better than many expected, with weekly pending sales still at multi-year highs and inventory remaining relatively healthy even if it turns negative year over year for a stretch. He rejected the idea of a broad mortgage-rate lockdown, pointing to new listings data as evidence that homeowners are still willing to list and move when they need to.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the end of the Iran conflict does not mean mortgage rates quickly return to pre-conflict lows.
- His 2026 forecast assumes a 10-year yield around 4.60 and mortgage rates around 6.75% if the conflict is over.
- He said getting to about 6.25% mortgage rates likely requires the 10-year yield near 4.24 and slightly better spreads.
- Logan said the Federal Reserve has turned more hawkish, so lower rates will take weaker economic and labor data, not just calmer headlines.
- He argued housing demand has held up well, with pending sales strong and new listings data undermining the idea of a severe mortgage-rate lockdown.
Notable quotes
“the world economies, Iran and the US cannot drag this out without inflicting more pain with everyone”
“assuming there's no conflict, there's nothing abnormal to me with the 10-year yield being between 430 and 460”
“getting below six is going to be a little bit more difficult than I think people think”
“the spreads are here to control volatility”
“if this conflict didn't end or we didn't get things moving on. Absolutely”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about what happens with mortgage rates now that it seems like we have a peace deal with Iran. First, I want to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this episode possible.
And I want to do a short recap of the top five trending stories on housingwire.com. Coming in first is Logan's story on today's topic, which is what happens to rates if the Iran conflict is really over. Next is the tracker from this weekend on housing demand holding steady.
Followed by the story the FHA will keep Tri-Merge credit reports amid shift to new credit scoring models. The story on Fed Governor Christopher Waller going hawkish just as Kevin Warsh becomes new Fed chair is still getting some traction from last week. And then we have a new federal funding a mixed bag for housing.
Congrats on topping the charts as usual Logan and welcome back to the podcast. That's why they call me the chart daddy, you know. Um,
Well, so how was your Memorial Day? It was lovely. It was great. What about you? I had a donut and a and a slider. And I'm just like What people don't know, you are very disciplined about eating. I don't know you having a donut would be hilarious.
Yeah, so it was just a weird feeling. I was just It's been a while since I had a apple fritter and a and a and a cronut. So, and then I had I don't I don't remember the last time I had a slider. So, it was just yeah, it was a good day, but I mean so much drama, right? You you know.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rates
- iran conflict
- housing demand
- inventory levels
- fha credit reporting
Watch the episode
Watch “What will mortgage rates do if the Iran conflict is really over?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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