Episode summary
2026 spring housing market stability
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the 2026 spring housing market looks healthier because the data is stabilizing rather than swinging wildly. He said holiday timing and a major storm distorted some weekly readings, so the tracker should be read in context instead of overreacting to one bad week. Even so, he said purchase applications have started strongly, weekly pending home sales are positive year-over-year, and rates hovering near the low 6% range would be a meaningful improvement for spring demand.
He also said the big policy headlines from Davos did not amount to immediate housing change, since many proposals would need Congress and the market should not assume anything until it is signed into law. His broader point was that dramatic claims about a housing crash are overblown: inventory is rising, price growth is cooling, and nominal home price crashes are rare. What he wants to watch most is new listings, which he hopes will return to a more normal 80,000 to 100,000 range and signal a more functional market.
Mohtashami said the healthiest outcome is not a crash but stability. In his view, the market has moved away from the extreme conditions of 2020, 2021, and early 2022, and 2026 is starting with a better balance between buyers and sellers.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the spring outlook is better because rates are steadier, inventories are higher, and price growth is cooling.
- He warned that holiday timing and storms can distort weekly housing data, so one week should not drive a big conclusion.
- He said new listings is the key indicator to watch, and he wants it back in the 80,000 to 100,000 range.
- Mohtashami said the recent Davos housing talk was mostly noise because major policy changes would still need Congressional action.
- He argued that crash headlines sell attention, but nominal home price crashes are rare and the market is moving toward balance.
Notable quotes
“purchase application data has actually had the best start in in many years. uh weekly pending home sales are are are positive year-over-year”
“The growth rate of pricing slowing down is good. Inventory rising is good. Housing affordability got better on its own”
“I really just want to have new listings get above 80,000 and just hover around 80 to 100,000 like we used to in the old days”
“I am I cannot wait to see how the data looks like if we just hang around in the low sixes and don't have these violent spikes up uh up and down”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the spring housing market and why he's so excited to see stability as we go into this very important home buying season. Before we get started, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Welcome back to the podcast, Logan. You are you are geared up for uh cold weather. Looks like
I I am, you know, you know, with my fellow brothers and sisters across the country, gearing myself up because here in Southern California, it's like slightly sunny 71 degrees, but you know, I hear I hear it's going to be really cold, you know. Uh I saw a bunch of negatives in the uh Midwest and I'm like, wait, I'm going to Boise next week. Is it what is it going to be like?
Is it going to be like like when I was there last year, it's like 4 and 11 degrees and I swear like I look out the window I was like there's white walkers walking. This is not normal.
No. So I'm in Colorado. Um and it's like I mean it's cold for them.
It's like 9°. But Dallas is bracing for the storm that's supposed to come. We're recording this on Friday, so who knows what happens there.
Hope the grid holds up. Hope uh hope everything goes well in Texas. Well, and speaking of that, you know, whe whenever you whenever you track weekly data, um, you know, I always say like like jobless claims data, whenever there's a hurricane, you know, jobless claims tend to spike because people file for unemployment benefits and it takes like one or two weeks and then that spike comes down.
for weekly housing data.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spring housing market
- housing inventory
- market stability
- home-buying season
- u.s. housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “2026 spring housing market stability” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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