Episode summary
Positive housing demand and what to expect from Fed week
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Housing demand is starting 2026 on a stronger footing than the last few years, with Logan Mohtashami saying this is the best start to the year in a long time. He pointed to weekly pending sales at multi-year highs, purchase applications at multi-year highs, and mortgage rates holding in a narrower, more stable range around 6.07% to 6.21%. He argued that the market is benefiting from lower rates, calmer spreads, and better affordability, even though the January existing-home-sales report will be distorted by the holiday slowdown and weather disruptions.
Mohtashami said the price-cut percentage remains in a normal seasonal pattern and is moving toward the long-run level where about one-third of homes cut prices before selling. He expects new listings to stay healthy and wants to see active inventory keep rising, which he said helps the transaction chain function more smoothly. He added that the market shifted in mid-June 2025 and has continued improving since then.
On Fed week, he said no policy move is expected, but the meeting may reveal clues about the balance between hawks and doves ahead of a new Fed chair later in 2026. He also said Japan’s bond market and currency issues can still affect U.S. rates, though he wants listeners to focus mainly on the economic data and the housing trend rather than the noise.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said housing is off to the best early-year start in many years, with pending sales and purchase applications at multi-year highs.
- He expects January housing data to be temporarily distorted by holidays and severe weather, but says the underlying trend is improving.
- Mohtashami said price-cut percentages are moving back toward a normal one-third level, which he sees as a sign of a healthier market.
- He said mortgage rates near 6% and lower spread volatility are materially better for housing than the 7% to 8% environment of prior years.
- For Fed week, he expects no rate change but thinks the meeting will offer clues about hawks, doves, and the next Fed chair.
- He said Japan-related market noise can influence U.S. rates, but the bigger driver for housing remains domestic economic data.
Notable quotes
“This is the best start of the year that we've had in many years”
“pending uh weekly sales are at multi-year highs. Purchase application data is at multi-year highs”
“we might have some negative year-over-year data on the price cut percentages”
“realistically, you only have like two or three maybe rate cuts left in this cycle, uh, unless the labor market breaks”
“for now um focus on the economic data. We'll get a new Fed chairman”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moashami to talk about housing demand as we gear up for the spring housing market and what to expect for this Fed week. First, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is wonderful to be here after another crazy weekend of headlines and drama and it's Fed week on top of everything else. Uh um the 24 theme of 2026 still continues.
I agree. Okay. Well, let's start with the tracker because the data we got this weekend I feel like uh presents us with a continuing picture of a maybe a better, more stable spring home buying market. So, what was your takeaway? What's the biggest takeaway from the tracker this weekend?
This is the best start of the year that we've had in many years. In fact, the the last time we started uh this good early in the year was, you know, 2023 had mortgage rates getting down to 5.99%, but active inventory was not uh that high back then and affordability was still stretch stretched. Here it's it's it's a much different backdrop.
Now that we've passed what we saw uh in the last two weeks of Christmas, the first weeks of January, so the January existing home sales report is is going to get hit by that a little bit. But going out to March and April for the February March data, pending uh weekly sales are at multi-year highs. Purchase application data is at multi-year highs back to levels to where we somewhat in the lower end range of the previous decade.
We had 18% year-over-year growth in that data line, and we're not we no longer have very low comps, but we're seeing positive weeklies and year-over-year data if that just continues.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing demand
- mortgage rates
- fed week
- 2026 housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “Positive housing demand and what to expect from Fed week” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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