Episode summary
Home prices and why Trump might be waiting to name a Fed chair
HousingWire Daily
· · 15 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest Case-Shiller data fit HousingWire’s broader read on the housing market: national home-price momentum has cooled, but not in the dramatic way many online commentators claimed. He said the firming seen in the tracker during the second half of 2025 was expected, because affordability, inventory, and mortgage-rate moves were pointing toward slower but not collapsing prices. His 2026 baseline is for a slight nominal decline nationally, though he said that outlook depends on inventory growth and mortgage rates staying near current levels.
He emphasized that the market is still being driven by mortgage rates, spreads, and the 10-year yield, and that the best way to understand housing is to follow live data rather than headline volatility. In his view, national pricing has already slowed enough to improve affordability without needing a crash.
On the Fed, Logan said Jerome Powell remains uncomfortable discussing housing, but the bigger issue is how monetary policy affects mortgage rates and builder activity. He also argued Trump may be waiting to choose a Fed chair until the legal fight over firing Fed governors is clearer, because that would determine how much control the White House could actually exercise over the central bank.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the 2026 baseline is for a slight national nominal home-price decline, not a crash.
- He argued the second-half-2025 firming in home prices was already visible in forward-looking housing data before Case-Shiller caught up.
- He said mortgage spreads and the 10-year yield still do most of the work in setting housing conditions.
- Mohtashami said a less hawkish Fed and stable rates would support housing more than any Fed comment about supply shortages.
- He suggested Trump may be delaying a Fed-chair pick until the courts clarify whether the White House can remove Fed governors.
Notable quotes
“the month-to-month data in the Keshell index started to firm up but these people didn't care”
“now the forecast is for a slight decline but why I'm not fully into the lower rate camp”
“if rates stay six and a quarter and lower throughout the duration curve. It's very hard to have I mean major nominal home price crashes”
“Monetary policy is still 65 to 75% of where mortgage rates could range”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Modashami to talk about home prices, the Fed meeting, and why Trump might be delaying his pick for a new Fed chair. First, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. Today is one of those days where I reaffirm my belief that my father has never ever read anything I've written and he has never listened to this podcast once ever. — Which is very funny because he's not just your dad, right? Like that's kind of a dad move, but like he's in the industry. He is a a loan originator.
Yeah. He's been in the banking business since 1979 and he's still working. So, um today my father sends me a text message tells me, "Hey, I don't know what this spread is.
what's the meaning of the spreads? Can you can you send me anything an article that I could read about it? And I'm like, really, homie?
Really? You have no idea what the spreads is and you're my father? He's like, what?
And I was like, whatever. You know, so it it is what it is. It's really funny.
I'll I'll put this on social media and he he he's done this with me like over the last 15 years where it's so random and it's like clearly you've never listened to your son's work or at all. So, but since it's the mortgage spreads and that's our big thing over the last few years, uh you it just reaffirms my belief. He never listens to anything.
That's so funny. Also, I feel like we what we've learned over the last couple years is a lot of people in the business don't really know what spreads are because you'll ask uh different audiences and a few hands will go up.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- home prices
- fed meeting
- fed chair nomination
- trump delay
- housing market
Watch the episode
Watch “Home prices and why Trump might be waiting to name a Fed chair” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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