Episode summary
What a united Fed could mean for mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 12 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami said the Fed meeting signaled a more unified central bank that is likely to keep rates unchanged unless the labor market weakens materially. He pointed to the 10-2 vote, with Christopher Waller dissenting for a cut and Michelle Bowman holding, as evidence that Powell is nearing the end of his rate-cut cycle. In his view, that makes the next Fed chair race more important, because a successor aligned with Trump’s desire for faster cuts could change the tone even if policy limits remain in place.
Mohtashami argued that the bond market barely reacted, with mortgage rates staying calm in the low 6% range despite the day’s headlines. He said the spread environment is much better than in recent years and that this compression is helping keep volatility contained.
He also said purchase applications remain a strong signal for spring housing. The latest data showed only a 0.4% weekly decline but an 18% year-over-year gain, which he считает meaningful because it is happening with rates near 6% and improving affordability rather than from an artificially low base.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the Fed’s 10-2 vote suggests a more unified stance against cuts until Powell leaves.
- Mohtashami thinks Powell may have already delivered his last rate cut as Fed chair unless the labor market breaks.
- Mohtashami said mortgage rates stayed calm, rising just 1 basis point, with spreads keeping the low-6% range intact.
- Mohtashami said purchase applications are up 18% year over year, a stronger signal now that the low base is gone.
- Mohtashami argued that continued labor stability could leave the Fed near neutral policy for much of 2026.
Notable quotes
“it seems like the Fed is a little bit more unified on no rate cuts until Powell leaves”
“I think Powell's done his last rate cut as Fed chair”
“Mortgage rates went up just one basis points today. Very calm”
“We saw a very smidge negative 0.4% decline week to week. another double-digit 18% print year-over-year”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the very interesting Fed meeting today and what we saw with purchase apps. First, I want to thank our sponsor Trust and Will, for making this episode possible.
And a special shout out to our producer, Corey Ashcraftoft, for jumping in on such a late recording. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. This is the first time we've done a podcast, I think, at like 10:30 at night.
Yes, it's Fed day, but I was speaking in Boise and you were uh coming back from Colorado, so this is the first time we're, you know, being able to talk in a normal setting. And uh yeah, a very interesting day. I know marketwise not a lot of people thought it was a it was a big day, but there were some kind of uh interesting clues going out for the rest of the year.
Okay, so obviously nobody expected um you know any rate cuts, anything like that, but as always the really interesting thing is what Powell says in the speech and what he says in the Q&A. So what did you get from that? Do
You know what I found the most interesting today was the voting?
Okay. Um it was 10 to two for no no uh uh no no no no cuts. The two descents were Myerin is going to descent always because he's in there for Trump.
Christopher Waller dissented wanted a rate cut. You know, he's still auditioning for Fed chair. Michelle Bowman put it on hold as well.
And you know, she was she was you know uh labor overinflation. But the whole Q&A with the voting kind of made sense to me that it seems like the Fed is a little bit more unified on no rate cuts until Powell leaves.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- united fed
- mortgage rates
- fed meeting
- benchmark rate
- purchase apps
Watch the episode
Watch “What a united Fed could mean for mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from HousingWire Daily
-
The headlines impacting mortgage rates -
Has housing demand already changed with lower rates? -
How midterms and jobs week will affect rates -
Preparing for Q1 growth in reverse mortgages -
A clear pathway to sub-7% mortgage rates for Thanksgiving? -
Mortgage rates, inflation and those homeowner vacancy numbers
HousingWire Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to HousingWire. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
