Episode summary
Jobs data preview and mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami said the key driver for mortgage rates remains labor data, not the political noise around the Fed. He argued that the recent ADP report, which missed expectations at 22,000 versus 45,000, did not change his view that the 10-year yield is behaving normally within a range and that mortgage rates can stay near 6% unless jobs data materially weakens.
He also said the latest dip in purchase applications was distorted by snow and should be treated as temporary noise, not a new trend. In his view, inventory growth, slightly better affordability, and improved spreads have helped the housing backdrop, but the next meaningful move in rates depends on whether the labor market softens or reaccelerates.
Mohtashami said the Fed still wants to move only slowly toward neutral policy, and that revisions, wage growth, unemployment, and jobless claims will matter most when the BLS report arrives. He also discussed the DOJ-related pressure around Jerome Powell, framing it as a political game of chicken that does not alter his rate forecast.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the ADP print of 22,000 versus 45,000 expected was not weak enough to force the Fed to cut faster.
- He expects mortgage rates to stay near 6% unless labor data clearly breaks lower.
- He said the 10-year yield range of 3.80% to 4.60% still depends on whether jobs data weakens or improves.
- He argued that revisions, wage growth, and unemployment in the BLS report will be more important than the political fight around Jerome Powell.
- He said snow distorted purchase applications and the drop should be treated as temporary noise.
Notable quotes
“The labor data is the only thing that moves me”
“ADP report missed estimates. Um they were looking for 45,000 jobs created, but only 22,000”
“At least for everyone listening, the mortgage rates are near 6%. Uh uh that that is a positive for everyone here”
“when jobs Friday comes, check the revisions because Christopher Waller said revisions are probably going to lead to negative uh flat to negative job growth in 2025”
“we want to look at the revisions of BLS. We want to see where the wage growth is”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about the jobs data and how that could affect mortgage rates. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. By the way, I just want to give a special thank you to JP Morgan Chase uh for getting me a Houston, Texas Chart Daddy t-shirt uniform and having Chart Daddy name in the back. And actually, I think the first jersey I ever had as a kid playing sports, the number was 26, too. So, uh very fertuitous with that number, too.
That was awesome. Yeah, Houston Texans coming through there and then like uh this year it's going to be great. Um, okay. So, this this week we now have the government back online, right? Or should. And so, um, jobs week, does that mean we will get jobs data this week or is that still now put put out?
I don't know exactly what when the dates we're going to get all the job openings and the BLS, but now that the government's going to be funding, you know, we could prep for that. Um, kind of before we get into jobs, purchase application data finally got the snow effect. uh into it.
It was uh down 14% week overw week only up 4% that this is what kind of snow or you know natural disaster stuff does to weekly data and I I always like to like remind people when jobless claims which is a very key weekly data whenever there's like a hurricane or something like that jobless claims tend to spike you know it takes about two weeks and then it comes back down.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs data
- mortgage rates
- labor market
- housing market
- economic outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “Jobs data preview and mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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