Episode summary
The mortgage rate outlook for the rest of 2026
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that the mortgage-rate outlook for the rest of 2026 is being driven less by Fed personalities and more by three variables: the conflict in the Middle East, the trade war, and labor-market data. He says the Federal Reserve has already turned hawkish, inflation is still above target, unemployment is 4.1%, jobless claims are low, and wage growth is above 3%, so the market should assume rates can stay elevated or move higher if those pressures worsen.
He says mortgage spreads have been unusually helpful and are the main reason rates have not blown out further. Without that spread improvement, he says mortgage rates would already be near 8% today. Even so, he does not think 6% mortgages are likely unless the labor market weakens meaningfully, with rising unemployment and jobless claims. His base case is more like 6.25% to 6.75%, with 6.25% as the best case if conditions improve.
Mohtashami also says there is little point in focusing on Washington figures like Kevin Worsh or Scott Bessent unless the underlying issues are addressed. In his view, ending the conflict and preventing the trade war from getting worse are the real levers that could help mortgage rates drift lower over the rest of the year.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says the key rate drivers for the rest of 2026 are the conflict, the trade war and labor-market data, not Fed personalities.
- He argues mortgage spreads have cushioned rates and says without that improvement, mortgage rates would be near 8% today.
- Mohtashami says 6% mortgage rates would require clear labor-market deterioration, including higher unemployment and jobless claims.
- His base-case mortgage-rate range is 6.25% to 6.75%, with 6.25% only possible if conditions improve.
- He says the Fed has already shifted hawkish, so the market should expect higher-for-longer rates unless inflation pressures ease.
Notable quotes
“If you want if you want the Iranian conflict over, you can get it over. You just have to do a deal that you don't want to do”
“mortgage rates would be near 8% today”
“There is no six. The only time we've ever had mortgage rates get near 6% is that the labor market was getting noticeably softer”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the mortgage rate outlook for the rest of the year. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending articles at housingwire.com.
The first is Real Remax Group halts motto mortgage franchise growth followed by Logan's article Fed Chair Walsh will vote to hike rates if data doesn't improve. Then we have Ryan Sirhant doesn't want to buy your brokerage he wants your agents and builders face a tougher math problem as completed inventory rises. Finally we have as Cortis and Kasa make peace AIM is back in the mix.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. It's Friday morning and uh actually we just got done with Kevin Worsh's uh uh Jackson Hole. Did you see the AI I created with him?
You know, I had Kevin Wing down the street, has his sunglasses on, and you know, he's looking and he's looks into a car and there's a 6% mortgage rate box and he takes a rock and he breaks the car and he goes in and he grabs it and he runs away and the cops chase him. um pretty much that car is like with you know titanium steel plates now you know the 6% mortgage thing is not going to be a discussion for a while but um today's podcast is kind of goes with the article that we wrote on Friday like what do we need to really think about going out in the future because we should just be focusing on mortgage rates for the rest of the year uh and maybe less Kevin Worsh le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le le less Scott Bess ent less py uh things that actually matter now because I think the Federal Reserve hawks won this battle months ago and the market is properly priced in uh the Fed hawkishness which was correct uh uh and inflation is still above target.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rate outlook
- fed rate outlook
- rate hikes
- mortgage industry
- housing market 2026
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HousingWire
- RE/MAX Group
- Motto Mortgage
- AIME
- Kortas
- Casa
Watch the episode
Watch “The mortgage rate outlook for the rest of 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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