Episode summary
How is the housing market holding up amid global shocks?
HousingWire Daily
· · 25 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Housing data has held up better than many expected even as war headlines, oil-price spikes and market volatility have intensified. Logan Mohtashami argued that the market shifted in mid-2025 and that, nine months later, the tracker still looks more like a normal spring cycle than a crisis: inventory growth has slowed to 4.67%, pending sales are only slightly weaker year over year, and price cuts remain healthy. He said the big surprise is not collapse but calm, especially in places like Florida where inventory is falling year over year despite elevated supply coming into the year.
Mohtashami said higher mortgage rates have cooled momentum, but not in a dramatic way. Purchase-app growth has slowed from 12% year over year to 1%, and rates moving from 5.99% to 6.64% have trimmed demand. Still, he argued that mortgage spreads remain much better than in 2023 and are helping keep rates below 6.5% despite global shocks.
He also said the labor market is still strong enough for the Fed to stay cautious. With low jobless claims and a labor force growth backdrop he compared to 1977, he thinks policymakers may tolerate roughly 33,000-plus jobs a month while they wait for more clarity on inflation and the war.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said housing is behaving like a normal spring market, with inventory growth down to 4.67% and no sign of a national crash.
- He said purchase applications have slowed sharply from 12% year-over-year growth to 1% as mortgage rates rose from 5.99% to 6.64%.
- He argued mortgage spreads are still compressed enough to keep rates under 6.5%, even though spreads have worsened from their best levels.
- Mohtashami said the Fed may be comfortable with about 33,000 jobs a month as long as jobless claims stay low and inflation remains elevated.
- He said the biggest risk to housing now is not housing fundamentals but a war-related shock that could push oil, inflation and rates higher.
Notable quotes
“the growth rate of inventory is now down to 4.67%”
“purchase application data has slowed. Uh we went from uh 12% year-over-year growth to 5% year-over-year growth to now 1%”
“if we create more than 33,000 jobs a month, we're going to be okay as long as jobless claims are low”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about how the housing market is holding up amid all this news about the war, oil prices and and more. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Total Expert, for making this episode possible.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is uh wonderful to be here. We survived another weekend, Easter weekend.
It's Easter day actually today. Um as we're talking on Monday morning, the president is giving a live speech and it's already moved the markets a little bit. Oil prices are up a few dollars.
Uh after that, of course, we have this deadline that's coming up tomorrow. Um the ceasefire offer doesn't look like it was accepted by Iran. So, it's just a lot going on.
And the whole theme of uh 24 was going to be the the the the story of the year and uh Jack Bower, Madame President, Chloe, everyone, Palmer, you know, all the whole crew. And we're in April and it's still going on.
We had no idea how much like 24 this year was going to be. You called it from an economic standpoint, but it's not just economics.
In fact, if I could go back in time and take it back, I probably will because this is like way too much uh uh drama out there. So, I thought you did a great job this weekend when you looked at the uh tracker data, which is all of our weekly um housing data, and you were like, how is housing holding up under this sort of wartime economics? Because lots of different factors.
So, let's let's talk about the tracker and what you found. What does the data say?
So, Sarah Wheeler, when did the housing market shift?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing market resilience
- war-time economics
- iran economic pressures
- housing market outlook
- global shocks
Watch the episode
Watch “How is the housing market holding up amid global shocks?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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