Episode summary
Can housing hold up with rates near yearly highs?
HousingWire Daily
· · 22 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the housing market is still holding up, but the rest of 2026 now depends more on Fed policy, labor data, and bond-market pricing than on the recent easing in oil prices. He said the market had been pricing in a worst-case shock from the Iran conflict, but that oil traders were right not to expect major escalation, and that the 10-year yield has settled into a range that still leaves mortgage rates restrictive.
He emphasized that mortgage spreads matter as much as the 10-year yield itself. In his view, if spreads were as wide as they were in 2023, mortgage rates would be roughly 7.60% to 7.80%, which would be much worse for housing demand. Instead, he said the current setup is better than those prior years, and housing data has held up even with rates near yearly highs.
Mohtashami also said the housing market has shifted into a healthier tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Inventory is no longer at the extreme lows of 2022, wages have outgrown home prices over the last two years, and the seasonal pattern still suggests stronger sales can emerge in the fall and winter if mortgage rates ease enough. He said this week’s inflation data and Fed speakers will be key in seeing whether bond markets keep pricing in hikes.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the Iran-related oil shock has faded, but the 10-year yield still makes sense around 4.46% to 4.48% because Fed policy has turned more restrictive.
- He said housing would look much worse if 2023 mortgage spreads still prevailed, with mortgage rates implied around 7.60% to 7.80%.
- He expects the market to remain a buyer-seller tug-of-war rather than a collapse, because inventory has normalized and wages have outpaced home prices over the last two years.
- He said the next existing-home-sales report has an unusually easy comp, but later comps get tougher, so forward data will matter more.
- He said this week’s PCE inflation data and comments from hawkish Fed officials could move the 10-year yield and shape the second half of 2026.
Notable quotes
“the base level now is really 6 and 1/2 to 6.75”
“I don't see housing data performing well when mortgage rates get above 6.64 and then head towards 7”
“we're going to have negative year-over-year inventory going up to mid-June”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about the keys to the housing market for the rest of 2026. First, I want to wrap up the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
Logan's tracker is in the top spot followed by when will home sales return to normal. Our article on HUD changing the rules for multi-story manufactured homes is next. Then we have our coverage on Bed Bath & Beyond buying Fathom.
And five lessons from the first half of the 2026 housing market. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here and you know, speaking of the Bed Bath Beyond thing when I went on CNBC a few weeks ago and I said guys there's going to be a lot of buyouts, mergers, everyone in housing and it's a play. Wasn't quite thinking you know, Bed Bath & Beyond was going to dip its toe into the housing market again, but but this is the world we live in. It's it's it's been a something I've talked about there's going to be fewer players, but more kind of war chest pieces for the next housing cycle for sure.
Oh my gosh, no. I we had we had a good conversation in Slack on it with our with our newsroom, you know, like shower curtains, shower rings, homes, you know, like bath mats and — What's the I thought didn't Bed Bath & Beyond go bankrupt, you know?
That That's what every everyone's first question was like, I thought it was out of business. And I think they have a big online presence. I don't know. We're still figuring out, but it's a it's a very popular story. We've done a couple follow-ups and people are eating it up, so everyone has questions.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing market
- mortgage rates
- home sales
- 2026 housing outlook
- manufactured housing
Watch the episode
Watch “Can housing hold up with rates near yearly highs?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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