Episode summary
Housing demand remains positive for now
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.41% on Friday as war-related volatility pushed the 10-year yield and spreads higher, but Logan Mohtashami said the housing market is still holding up for now because the move has not yet lasted long enough to crush demand. He argued that the key level to watch is roughly 7% mortgage rates: if the market gets there, demand weakens much more decisively, but the current environment is still below the worst 2023-2025 spread regimes.
Mohtashami emphasized that spreads remain the important cushion in the mortgage market. He said that if 2023, 2024, or 2025 spread conditions were still in place, mortgage rates would already be in the 7% range, but the improved spread environment has kept rates lower than they otherwise would be. Even after Friday’s move, weekly tracker data still showed positive demand, with purchase applications up 11% year-over-year and weekly pending sales at multi-year highs.
He framed the next few weeks as a live test of how long the Iran conflict lasts and whether energy costs keep rising. If the situation fades quickly, he thinks housing could revert to normal seasonal patterns; if it drags on, higher input costs, weaker growth, and more hawkish Fed expectations could pressure rates, sales, and inventory. For now, he said the market is still functioning and the full year outlook has not changed unless the conflict persists.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said Friday’s move to 6.41% mortgage rates was driven by war-related volatility, but demand has not yet broken down.
- He said 7% mortgage rates remain the line where housing demand usually weakens sharply.
- Mohtashami said improved mortgage spreads have been the “unsung hero,” keeping rates below where 2023-2025 spread regimes would have put them.
- The weekly tracker still showed positive demand, with purchase applications up 11% year-over-year and pending sales at multi-year highs.
- He expects the next few weeks to determine whether the Iran conflict is a short shock or a longer housing-market headwind.
- Mohtashami said the 2026 housing outlook is unchanged unless the conflict drags on long enough to affect the full year.
Notable quotes
“if I took 2023 spreads, mortgage rates would be 7.59%”
“Pending sales positive year-over-year. purchase application data, which is a little bit backward looking on on the previous week, 11% growth year-over-year”
“Nothing has changed on my thing because this is a quick event”
“for now for now just because I thought it was a little bit late in the week for it to hit the data demand's up”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about how the recent increase in mortgage rates is impacting housing demand and of course how all of that's being affected by the war with Iran. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. We survived another weekend and it's Monday morning again. When we do these podcasts, 27 things can happen after.
So, um, uh, you'll all hear this Tuesday morning, but oil prices down just a little bit. 10-year yield down just a little bit. We have not broken over that 430 level level that we saw on January 20th.
that means this bull pattern that we've talked about for many many months since September is still still intact. Um but it it was an interesting weekend in the sense we're almost to March 21st and you I thought by March 21st we get a lot of questions but uh we're kind of asking for help now uh um with NATO the US is asking for help. US is asking for help on the hormone, you know, straight and getting oil flowing.
And again, every week that goes by, energy prices are up. Production of other stuff starts to go down. Uh Singap Singapore's fuel costs for transportation, which is the number one hub in the world.
That's at multi-deade levels high. So, it starts its toll, right? Not just here, but around the world.
And the longer this goes, the, you know, it it it's harder to get things up and going again. Uh uh so that's why I've always said that March 21st date that it do we do we hear anything on trying to get this over with or is this going to be multi- you know if this is going to be a three, four, five month affair or is it never going to stop or is it going to stop?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage rate changes
- housing demand
- interest rate uncertainty
- iran war uncertainty
- housing market
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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