Episode summary
ICE’s Andy Walden on the spring housing market
HousingWire Daily
· · 21 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Andy Walden
Summary
Andy Walden said the spring housing market entered 2026 with more optimism than the prior few years because mortgage rates had eased, spreads had compressed, affordability was at a four-year high, and refinancings were picking back up. He argued the market is still healthier than a year ago even after a recent uptick in rates, noting borrowers are paying less than they were last year to finance the same home and home prices have flattened while incomes have caught up somewhat.
Walden said refinance activity reached a 3.5-year high in the fourth quarter and recapture activity hit an 11-year high, while the buyer mix continues to lean more toward first-time homebuyers because they are less affected by the lock-in effect. He also pointed to regional differences: affordability has improved across all 50 major markets, with the Midwest, Memphis and Detroit areas moving back toward long-run averages faster than many coastal markets.
On risk, Walden said property insurance costs hit another record high last year but the pace of increases slowed, and late 2025 showed some cooling in states like Florida, Texas and Louisiana. On delinquencies, he said overall mortgage performance remains strong, but 90-plus-day delinquencies are rising because cure activity has slowed, especially in FHA lending, which could lift foreclosure activity modestly in 2026 without signaling broad mortgage-market stress.
Key takeaways
- Walden said refinance activity hit a 3.5-year high in Q4 and recapture activity reached an 11-year high, showing lenders are getting more retention business as rates ease.
- He said affordability improved in all 50 major markets versus a year ago, with the Midwest and markets like Memphis and Detroit back near long-run averages.
- Walden said property insurance costs rose 6.5% last year, but the pace was about half what it was in 2023 and 2024, with late-2025 moderation in some storm-prone states.
- He said overall mortgage performance is still strong at a 3.7% delinquency rate plus about 0.5% in foreclosure, but 90-plus-day delinquencies are up about 175,000 in four months.
- Walden said the rise in serious delinquencies is being driven more by weaker cure activity and a shift in loss-mitigation flow than by a surge in new delinquencies.
Notable quotes
“affordability at its best level in four years, some refinances starting to flow back through the market”
“If you look at the average homeowner out there shopping for a home, they're paying 5% less for a mortgage to buy the same home as they were a year ago”
“Refinance activity hit a 3 and 1/2 year high in the fourth quarter”
“the downside is property insurance costs hit another record high last year. They were up 6 and 1/2%”
“overall mortgage performance remains pretty strong, right? 3.7% delinquency rate, add in a half a percent of foreclosures”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm here today with Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE, to talk about what he's looking for as we head into the spring housing market. Before we dive in, I want to say thank you to our sponsor Trust in Will for making this episode possible. Andy, welcome back to the podcast.
Thank you for having me. I appreciate it. No, this is so much fun. We are here on the floor of the exhibit hall at the ICE Experience conference. Super fun. So, very fun. We might have some background noise, but that just adds to it. Um and I'm excited to get to talk to you. Of course, you and I are going to be on stage later today. Excited about that.
Some of these economic topics, but I wanted to jump in and um let's go broad first and talk about, you know, as we were heading into spring, let let's take out the last couple weeks out of it just for a minute. We'll get there. Um and let's talk about how you were feeling about heading into the spring.
I I was feeling great. I think a lot of people the vibe you're getting in this room is that a lot of people are feeling more optimistic about the market. I mean, interest rates are one of many reasons, but if you look at what was going on with interest rate dynamics, spreads had compressed, mortgage rates had a five for the first time in three years, affordability at its best level in four years, some refinances starting to flow back through the market.
And so, I think for a number of different reasons, there's a lot more optimism about the market right now than there has been over the last few years.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spring housing market
- mortgage delinquencies
- mortgage rates
- housing market research
- mortgage market outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ICE
Watch the episode
Watch “ICE’s Andy Walden on the spring housing market” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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