Episode summary
Why home sales remain positive
HousingWire Daily
· · 21 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Mortgage spreads are doing most of the work in keeping housing activity afloat. Logan Mohtashami argued that weekly pending home sales and purchase applications have stayed positive because spreads have compressed enough to keep mortgage rates from moving much above 7%, even as the 10-year yield and Fed rhetoric have turned less supportive. He said the current setup could allow only modest further improvement, with rates perhaps drifting from the mid-6% range toward the low-6%s if spreads improve, but he does not see a meaningful drop in mortgage rates without a big change in policy or data.
Mohtashami also said the housing market is healthier than it was in 2020 to 2023 because inventory has normalized from extreme lows and home-price growth is no longer running far ahead of wages. He pointed to national single-family inventory and total pending home sales as signs that the market shifted around mid-June 2025 and has continued to improve through mid-2026. His broader argument was that the market is functioning better, not booming, and that the data now matter more than the doom scenarios circulating online.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said mortgage spreads, not raw Treasury moves, are the main reason home sales have stayed positive this year.
- He expects only modest room for lower mortgage rates unless spreads improve further or Fed policy shifts materially.
- Mohtashami said weekly pending home sales and purchase applications are still positive, but partly because rates have stayed from rising above 7%.
- He argued the housing market is healthier now because inventory is no longer at the extreme lows seen in 2022 and price growth is cooling relative to wages.
- Mohtashami said the market shifted around mid-June 2025, and the forward-looking data have been improving since then.
Notable quotes
“can mortgage spreads get better because that's, you know, the big theme of the of the tracker”
“it's really because mortgage spreads have compressed enough to keep rates from going above seven”
“this is the first year where we have the lowest rate curve ever, and that's mostly spreads”
“the housing market shifted midJune. the forward-looking datas got better”
“the tracker was designed to show everyone forward-looking data so you can be six months ahead of everyone else”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moto Shami to talk about mortgage spreads and positive home sales. But first, here are the top five trending stories on housingwire.com.
Leading the list is our continued coverage of the Two Harbors acquisition with the headline UWM likely better off after losing Two Harbors deal, KBW says, followed by this week's tracker article. Then we have America 250 is a turning point for American home ownership, which is a contributed article by David Spectre, chairman and CEO of Penny. Then we have the 2026 Women of Influence article.
Um, and finally, we have transaction fee lawsuits test broker disclosure. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be It's good that we we're we're having a Monday where we're not talking about oil prices — And we're talking about red cards and and suspensions and taking suspensions out and US soccer and I try to wear my, you know, as close to a US soccer outfit I possibly can.
I love it. — Representing the US. It's playing Belgium. Of course, the game will be decided by the time this podcast comes out, but but yeah, it's it's a nice change of pace.
I love it. No, so you know, our office uh the housing war office is in downtown Dallas on Main Street, which they have closed off because we have some of the World Cup teams staying in the um hotel right across and then their buses are there and so there's they close off the street and it's full of their supporters. So, it just depends on which day it is.
I think it's Spain and Portugal today, but it's it's so fun just to be right in the middle of something like that.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- mortgage spreads
- home sales
- mortgage rates
- housing market
- real estate
Watch the episode
Watch “Why home sales remain positive” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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