Episode summary
The resiliency of the US housing market
HousingWire Daily
· · 24 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the U.S. housing market’s resilience comes from its structure, not from a normal boom-bust cycle. He pointed to the 30-year fixed mortgage, post-2008 lending reforms, and generally stronger household balance sheets as the core reasons homeowners have been able to absorb shocks from COVID, rate increases, inflation, and higher insurance and tax costs. In his view, fixed housing payments and rising wages make homeowners more stable than renters, and that stability has helped keep consumption and the broader economy intact.
He also said the recent housing cycle looks different from the 2000s bubble because prices rose without the same kind of credit debt explosion. Logan argued that inventory stayed low because homeowners were financially healthier than critics expected, which is why the feared forbearance-driven wave of distressed selling never arrived. He described housing as shelter first, not an investment product, and said the obsession with doomsday forecasts has repeatedly missed the strength of U.S. demographics, productivity, and consumer demand.
Looking ahead, Logan said the second half of 2026 looks “perfectly normal” to him, with housing demand holding up and mortgage rates manageable relative to recent history. He expects the U.S. to keep outperforming because of its working population, its homeowner-heavy middle class, and its ability to weather shocks better than older economies.
Key takeaways
- Logan said the 30-year fixed mortgage is the biggest reason U.S. homeowners can absorb shocks better than renters.
- He argued post-2010 household balance sheets and FICO scores have never looked better, helping support demand and limit distressed selling.
- Logan said the feared forbearance crash never materialized because most homeowners kept their jobs and stayed financially intact.
- He framed housing as shelter first, not a trading vehicle, and said that mindset explains why homeownership still works for families.
- Logan expects the second half of 2026 to be normal, with the U.S. economy still supported by strong demographics and working households.
Notable quotes
“with the advent of social media has has um fabricated people's resumes in terms of so many people who are now economic and housing experts”
“the housing market when we look at all the regulations that were put in. And not just the qualified mortgage that Dodd-Frank in 2010”
“homeowners are I I cannot tell you how many times do I show those charts over and over again where the FICO scores of Americans after the you know, 2010 have never looked better in history”
“housing is the cost of shelter to your own capacity or on the debt or is basically the payment”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone to this special 4th of July edition of the podcast with my very regular guest, some would say co-host, lead analyst Logan Mohtashami, where we're going to discuss what makes the US housing system so unique. It's a topic Logan and I both feel so strongly about, so it's fun to get to highlight it around the 4th. And also for those of us who are for those of you who are watching on YouTube, we are we are dressed in our 4th of July, although you're pretty dressed up.
You're in colors, but you're pretty dressed up for like the 4th of July vibe. There, Logan.
Well, I actually had to do a webinar right before I got on here, and — What happens is when I do the nerd tour, people do requests for the colored silk shirts that I have to be kind of match the color. So, I I have 18 of them, so I try to I try to accommodate as much as I can.
You have some great shirts. I love this color, so it just doesn't look like you're about to go to a backyard barbecue, but that's okay. So, let's dive in.
So, you know, when I was thinking about this episode, it's something that we've done before, but really talking about specifically right now in this moment, what is it about the the US housing market that is really unique and is really beneficial to our whole system of like, you know, homeowners building wealth of this entire housing ecosystem that we have.
Well, you know, I mean, just in general, how how you look at the housing market is how I look at the US economy itself. I mean, outside of COVID, right? With with the advent of social media has has um fabricated people's resumes in terms of so many people who are now economic and housing experts, but always talking about a crash, a recession, and we have a lot of older men in this country who believe federal debt is a bad thing in terms of, you know, it's it's you know, that it's going to be so negative.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing market resilience
- u.s. housing market
- mortgage industry
- housing supply and demand
- 2026 housing outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “The resiliency of the US housing market” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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