Episode summary
How the Iran Conflict and Falling Rates Are Impacting the Housing Market
HousingWire Daily
· · 18 min · Hosts: Brena Nath · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami said the Iran conflict has not produced the kind of bond-market panic that would normally push mortgage rates sharply higher. He pointed to the 10-year yield holding around 4.25 and mortgage rates around 6.30, arguing that the market may be signaling the conflict is closer to de-escalation than escalation. He said a true escalation would likely have sent oil toward 120 and the 10-year yield back toward 4.48.
He also argued that recent housing demand data needs to be read through the lens of the Easter holiday. Weekly pending sales, new listings, and inventory all improved after a weaker prior week, but he said the holiday likely distorted both periods. Falling rates from 6.64 to 6.29 probably helped demand somewhat, but he treated the swing as mostly a calendar effect rather than a clean turn in the market.
On inventory, Mohtashami said the market shifted in mid-June 2025 and that inventory growth has slowed from 33% year over year to 3.28%, though it remains high enough to keep price growth in check. He said this is healthier than the “savagely unhealthy” conditions of 2022, when single-family inventory hit 240,000 homes, and he expects wages to outpace home-price growth for a third straight year. He was more cautious on new listings, saying he wants to see more sustained seasonal strength before calling it a real improvement.
Key takeaways
- Mohtashami said the bond market is not reacting as if the Iran conflict is escalating, with the 10-year yield near 4.25 and mortgage rates around 6.30.
- He argued the recent jump in pending sales and inventory was mostly a holiday distortion, not proof of a sudden housing-demand breakout.
- Inventory growth has slowed from 33% year over year to 3.28%, but he said that is still enough to restrain home-price growth.
- Mohtashami said wages should outgrow home prices again this year, which he sees as an affordability improvement.
- He said new listings are still disappointing because the market has not yet produced the sustained seasonal lift he expected.
Notable quotes
“the 10-year yield even at some at one point early this morning on Monday morning we're looking at it being flat at four and a quarter”
“I think if it was escalating, oil prices should be at 120. Maybe the 10-year yield goes back and tests that 4.48 level”
“one of the things I tried to do last year is try to teach people that you might be might need to be a little bit careful with the tracker for two weeks around any holiday”
“the growth rate of inventory has gone from 33% last year now down to 3.28% even with the noticeable pickup week to week”
“I was just hoping that this year would be the year. And maybe I could still get what I want, that we get above 80,000”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm Brennan Natha and my guest today is Logan Mohtashami to talk about his latest housing market tracker from inventory to home sales to mortgage rates including a little bit on the gathering. But before we jump in, I wanted to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this episode possible.
Welcome everyone. I am so excited to being able or being allowed to sub in for Sarah Wheeler this week. Logan Mohtashami, it's my turn to step in.
Brennan Natha, I lead events here at HousingWire. Thank you for letting me host today. Yes, and and I remember a very very young Brennan Natha was the first person from HousingWire I ever met in 2014.
You know, 12 years later here we are on a podcast. I'd like to say I'm an OG fan then. Like you're OG fan.
We go way back and a lot of data, the charts also date back to 2014. Maybe people should know that. Yeah, we I started writing in late 2010, but yeah, we 2014 charts, they're drawn differently, but yeah.
Chart Daddy now 2026, brand new version, hair's bigger, you know, so here it is. Hair's bigger. I was asked the other day for a video for you for social and something that marketing people always is having something that scroll stopping.
And my first thought was we don't need scroll stopping copy, the hair. The hair is scroll stopping. That's all you need for the social post.
Perfect. Okay. Well, there's a lot to cover and a lot of different themes that I think are important to talk about especially coming after a holiday week last week.
But let's start with the biggest news story that's going on. I read your HousingMarket Tracker. I'm guessing a lot of people on here also read it who are listening.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran conflict impact
- falling mortgage rates
- housing demand
- housing inventory
- pending home sales
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HousingWire
Watch the episode
Watch “How the Iran Conflict and Falling Rates Are Impacting the Housing Market” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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