Episode summary
Ongoing Iran conflict raises mortgage risk into late 2026
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the Iran conflict matters for mortgage rates mainly through oil, inflation, and the Fed, and that the biggest risk is not a short flare-up but a conflict that drags past July 4 and into late 2026. He said the 10-year yield moved but remained below his key danger zone, and that mortgage pricing still benefits from spreads that have normalized enough to keep rates near his forecast rather than much higher. If the conflict worsens, he expects the Fed could shift into multiple rate hikes, which would keep mortgage rates elevated for the rest of the year until economic data weakens.
On housing, Logan said the weekly tracker still shows positive demand despite higher rates and recent weekend volatility in headlines. He emphasized that inventory, new listings, and sales often dip around holidays and then rebound, so recent movements should not be overread. Even with uncertainty, he said the market remains seasonally normal, with June near a peak before the usual summer slowdown.
He also framed 2026 as a year where mortgage spreads and housing fundamentals matter more than the day-to-day noise. His base case remains that rates would have been lower without the conflict, but he stressed that the tracker and the rate outlook still show a housing market that is holding up better than many expect.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said a prolonged Iran conflict could push mortgage rates up by about 0.375 to 43 basis points versus forecasts if oil and inflation worsen.
- He said the 10-year yield was still around 4.55%, below the 4.60% level he flagged as a key threshold.
- Mohtashami warned that if the conflict continues, the Fed could move into multiple rate hikes, which would keep rates elevated into late 2026.
- The housing tracker still shows weekly demand above last year and even above the last two years, despite higher rates.
- He said the market is at or near its seasonal peak, so new listings and sales should trend lower as summer progresses.
Notable quotes
“if we go out to this and oil inventory start to fall down and China and everybody like India came out and said we have like I don't know 76 80 day”
“for now, mortgage rates the high of the forecast this year was 6.75”
“think about 0.375 to 43 basis points higher than what they forecast was if things get worse”
“weekly demand is still above last year. Even above the last 2 years”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about what happens to mortgage rates if the Iran conflict actually continues past July 4th and to discuss the latest housing market tracker data. First, I'll recap the top trending stories on HousingWire.
Logan's article on the Iran war implications is trending at the top followed by CFPB guidance points mortgage lenders to consider borrowers in immigration status. Then we have the weekly housing market tracker and two local market stories. One on the booming Boston market and one on Florida.
And we just published a story that I expect is going to jump to the top and that is our announcement today that HousingWire has acquired Keeping Current Matters. I did a whole separate podcast on that with Clayton Collins that you can check out today as well. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. We had another episode of 24 on Sunday where what I'm going to do from now on I'm I'm going to take clips of 24 and then every headline we get on the weekend cuz it's like weekends are for war and then before the market happens somebody has to make an announcement that everything is okay and we just wait until the weekend happens and we get these crazy things. Um the reason I'm bringing this up is yesterday we had a lot.
It was a lot this time, you know, uh Hezbollah shot at Israel, Israel shot at Hezbollah, Iran shot at Israel, Israel shot at Iran or was about to shoot at Iran and then Trump came in and went no, no, no, we're not doing this and then they went oh yes, we are. And you know, with all that craziness that happened last night, oil prices never got above 100 and I had to bring out fertilizer prices because not a lot of people know that fertilizer prices have gone back down to pre kind of around pre-conflict era.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran conflict
- mortgage rates
- housing market tracker data
- mortgage risk
- housing demand
Watch the episode
Watch “Ongoing Iran conflict raises mortgage risk into late 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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