Episode summary
What the big beat on jobs means for mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that the latest jobs report was strong enough to look normal, not recessionary, after a weak 2025 base. He said the labor market is still healing from last year’s trade-war shock, a government shutdown, and tight housing-finance conditions, and that the data now fit a healthier pattern rather than a re-acceleration or breakdown. He pointed to 42,000 average monthly jobs over the last 12 months and 96,000 over the last 6 months, saying both are consistent with his higher break-even estimate of 78,000 jobs.
He said mortgage rates are being driven less by the jobs report alone and more by the interplay of inflation, energy prices, and mortgage spreads. In his view, the market has already priced out rate cuts and in one rate hike, which helps explain why mortgage pricing has stayed near his forecast range of 5.75% to 6.75% this year. He argued that getting back to 3% or 4% mortgage rates would require an abnormal policy environment, not just a softer labor market.
Mohtashami also pushed back hard on recession calls and on AI-related claims that technology will wipe out jobs. He said the labor market is more likely to face worker shortages over time as older cohorts retire, and he expects the biggest variable from here to be whether the conflict and energy prices ease enough to pull bond yields and mortgage rates lower.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said the jobs market looks normal relative to a weak 2025 base, not like a new downturn.
- He said his break-even for job creation is 78,000, above the Federal Reserve’s earlier zero-to-33,000 view.
- Mohtashami said mortgage rates are still pinned near a 5.75% to 6.75% range because spreads, inflation, and energy costs remain elevated.
- He argued that rates below 6% would require much easier policy and lower energy prices, not just one softer jobs report.
- He rejected recession and AI-collapse narratives, saying the labor market is more likely to need workers than to lose them.
- He said the market has already priced out rate cuts and in one rate hike, which keeps pressure on bond yields.
Notable quotes
“If you get jobs above 78,000, then the unemployment rate can go lower”
“Do not worry about the spreads reaccelerating”
“No country has a Dorian Gray labor market”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about the jobs report and boy is this a big one. First, the top five trending articles on housingwire.com and his article on this subject is leading.
The truth about the jobs data in 2026. Followed by HUD cuts could worsen affordability challenges. Then we have trends verified rankings for 2026.
This is an incredible list that breaks out sides of volume for agents and teams across the country. Next we have FHA Commissioner Frank Cassidy steps down and secondary mortgage market waits for data and creates workarounds amid shift to alternative credit scores. Lots of good stuff.
Okay. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
You know, I there are a few days where it's really fun for the nerdy side of me to go over data with other people, but today is like one of the one of the one of the best days. What I'm going to do here is almost like a very non-nerdy dissertation on what's happening with the labor market so people could understand because you know, when you and I did that podcast last year about going into 2026 and there are some you know, we could have a better data in 2026. A lot of that principle is based on the first year of every trade war that I've dealt with.
Now, that's two now. Things are just very hectic. So, let's remember what happened last year.
We had rates too elevated for housing construction to grow. We had the trade war which was Godzilla terrorist which is a hundred times bigger than what um what was happening in 2018 19. Then we had a government shutdown were firing federal workers.
There was a lot of chaos. And hiring was slowing down to the point to where only two sectors of the economy were really growing.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- mortgage rates
- fha commissioner
- hud cuts
- secondary mortgage market credit scores
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RealTrends
Watch the episode
Watch “What the big beat on jobs means for mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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