Episode summary
The important context for year-over-year data
HousingWire Daily
· · 18 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
The conversation focused on why year-over-year housing data in 2026 needs more context than a simple comparison suggests. Logan Mohtashami said this year is not behaving like prior years because the market saw meaningful strength in purchase applications and weekly pending sales from mid-February to mid-May, before mortgage rates moved back above 6.65% and demand softened. He argued that the right way to read the market is through the tracker, because rates and the 10-year yield still drive the direction of housing demand.
Mohtashami said existing home sales should still trend below 4 million and that the market is likely to slow from its earlier peak, but he emphasized that inventory is rising from very depressed levels, which makes the year-over-year setup look different. He also said price cuts are only slightly above last year and that the data line is moving slowly, reflecting a market that is more stable than the last few years but still sensitive to rate moves.
He pushed back on doom-filled interpretations of the data, saying the real story is nuance: higher rates pressure demand, lower rates help it, and 2026 has been a better affordability year because wages are outpacing home price growth. He also noted that mortgage spreads have helped keep rates from being even higher than they otherwise would be.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said existing home sales should trend below 4 million, with higher rates above 6.65% still slowing demand.
- Mohtashami said year-over-year comparisons need context because 2026 is being measured against a much lower-rate environment last year.
- He said inventory growth is up 4.39% year over year, but the pace looks smaller because the market is comparing against elevated levels.
- Mohtashami said the price-cut percentage is only slightly above last year, showing a slow-moving market rather than a sharp break.
- He argued mortgage spreads have kept borrowing costs below where they would have been in 2023, which has helped stabilize the market.
Notable quotes
“year-over-year comps are going to need a a little bit more context”
“we believe in reading, you can all see it in the weekend tracker”
“higher rates actually create more inventory”
“we should trend below 4 million on the existing home sales prints”
“whenever rates get above 6.65 with duration, housing data slows down”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about existing home sales and how to look at the year-over-year data with our tracker. Before we dive in, here are the top five articles on housingwire.com.
First is Florida's housing market looks shaky, Orlando tells a more complicated story. Followed by Pulte says FHFA by merge single credit report. Then we have the tracker, housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026.
And Logan's article, commodity inflation is hot, but Fed is still focused on corn inflation. Finally, we have the MBA sues New Jersey over disparate impact rule. Okay, we're ready to dive in.
Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here. And about 5 minutes ago, you had both your fingers up and saying, "Logan, no long rants. We don't have a lot of time today. None. Two fingers. I got two fingers today." So.
It's true cuz we we both have a a hard stop. So, I was like, "Listen, no long rants. You can do short rants, no long rants." I have to tell you those things. — I know. I know. That's why we call you boss, right? You know, so. It is what it is.
It is. Okay, let's talk about existing home sales. — So, by the time this podcast comes out, existing home sales will will be available 7:00 Pacific time a.m. And one of the things I wanted to talk about with the tracker is this year is much different than last year. So, the year-over-year comps are going to need a a little bit more context. Where last year, what do you say the housing market, when did it shift?
Mid-June 2025. — Mid-June 2025 because mortgage the 10-year yield was going lower, the spreads were going to get better, mortgage rates were going to break under 6.64, and the supply and demand equilibrium was going to change.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- existing home sales
- year-over-year comps context
- housing market tracker
- housing data interpretation
- real estate market trends
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HousingWire
Watch the episode
Watch “The important context for year-over-year data” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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