Episode summary
Housing policy and pending home sales
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argued that Trump’s Davos remarks and recent housing-related executive action are mostly noise until they are actually implemented. He said the only policy with real market impact so far is the mortgage-backed securities purchase program, while the so-called institutional investor “ban” is really a narrower financing restriction with carveouts, including for build-to-rent housing. He also said a proposed 10% cap on credit cards, if it ever happened, could shock the system, but that investors should wait for something concrete before modeling it.
On the Federal Reserve, Logan said the Supreme Court arguments around Lisa Cook and presidential removal power did not look promising for Trump, especially after conservative justices raised the risk of an unprecedented power grab. He argued that giving a president more control over Fed governors would undermine monetary-policy independence and could let future administrations do the same thing.
On housing data, Logan said the weak pending home sales report was distorted by year-end seasonality and an elevated base. He emphasized that weekly pending sales and purchase applications have turned positive again, with double-digit year-over-year gains in purchase apps, and said the forward-looking data still points to a healthier 2026 backdrop if mortgage rates stay at 6.25% or lower.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said Trump’s housing announcements should be treated as noise until they are formally enacted, with the mortgage-backed securities purchase program the only clear action so far.
- He said the institutional investor order is not a true ban and includes a carveout for build-to-rent neighborhoods because rental supply and shelter inflation still matter.
- Mohtashami said the Supreme Court arguments on firing Lisa Cook did not look favorable for Trump because even conservative justices seemed concerned about presidential overreach.
- He argued the weak pending home sales print was a seasonal distortion, not a new downtrend, because weekly pending sales and purchase applications have already turned positive again.
- He expects 2026 could add 237,000 more home sales if mortgage rates stay at 6.25% and under, based on the recent demand curve he is tracking.
Notable quotes
“the only thing that has been enacted has been really the mortgage back security purchase”
“the institutional ban technically isn't an institutional ban”
“Supply is the best way to fight inflation”
“it doesn't look promising for the for for that but we'll see the final results”
“We said a lot of things, but we said that what's going to happen again is that I we don't write the tracker anymore the last two weeks of the year or the first week”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about Trump's Davos speech, the Federal Reserve, and pending home sales. First, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast on this very consequential day for housing. We said it was going to be a very uh fun and interesting week and so far it has not disappointed.
It has not. Okay, let's start off with the Davos thing right away. What did uh what did Trump talk about? What did he not talk about? Um I think that he did not bring up the um 401k as a down payment. Correct.
No, but you know, it's like what we've talked about here. There are going to be a lot of ideas out there, but so far the only thing that has been enacted has been really the mortgage back security purchase. Uh, and that's kind of been happening for some time.
Um, the the institutional ban technically isn't an institutional ban. It's, you know, it's it's it's coded a little bit differently. Uh, nothing about 401ks.
um you know the the the 10% cap on credit cards theoretically if that happened and the banks really like Jamie Diamond talked about 80% of credit cards would be shut down that can be like a shock like an economic shock if that happened. So if that does occur, the first thing I would do is look at see what what the banks do cuz if they do shut down credit limits or or just shut down credit for a majority of the country um that can be an issue that can be a shock to the system. So again wait on that one as well.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing policy
- pending home sales
- fed rates
- mortgage-backed securities
- housingwire news
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Federal Reserve
- MBS
- Cook
Watch the episode
Watch “Housing policy and pending home sales” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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