Episode summary
The DOJ vs. the Fed, plus inventory and mortgage rates
HousingWire Daily
· · 17 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami says the DOJ’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell and the Fed is mostly another wild headline unless it actually changes Senate behavior around Powell’s successor. He argues the timing may matter less than the market reaction, because mortgage rates have already improved and investors appear to think the drama will not derail the broader rate path. He also says the speculation around a new chair, including Kevin Hassett as a likely front-runner, remains secondary to the larger question of whether the Fed can keep operating normally through the legal noise.
The bigger housing story for him is inventory. Logan says the housing market shifted in mid-June 2025, and since then inventory growth has slowed sharply from 33% to 9.99% year over year. He links that slowdown to lower mortgage rates and firmer demand, but says the market is still in a healthier buyer-seller balance than the extreme shortage of 2020-2022. In his view, four months of supply and higher listings mean the fear that lower rates will instantly send home prices soaring is overblown.
He argues that mortgage spreads have normalized enough to support the HousingWire forecast range and that softening labor data is constructive for housing as long as it does not turn into economic weakness. Logan frames 2026 as a tug-of-war market where rates, inventory, and demand all interact, but he says that is exactly what buyers and sellers should want.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says the DOJ-Powell investigation is an X-factor, but markets may mostly treat it as noise unless Senate Republicans block a new Fed chair.
- He says inventory growth has slowed from 33% year over year to 9.99% since mid-June 2025, showing the housing curve has already shifted.
- Mohtashami argues lower mortgage rates do not automatically mean runaway home prices because supply is now much healthier than during 2020-2022.
- He says mortgage spreads have improved enough to support rates near the HousingWire forecast range, though he does not expect a sustained move below 5.75% without more spread normalization.
- His view is that softer labor data helps housing as long as it does not become recessionary, because demand and supply are finally closer to balance.
Notable quotes
“the mortgage back security market purchases were announced, then the subpoenas went to the Fed. Okay, I'm trying to get people to connect the dots here”
“the market doesn't believe that it's going to happen because a few Republicans have already said, I'm not going to elect a new Fed chairman as long as this goes on”
“inventory growth has gone from 33% now to 9.99% on a year-over-year basis”
“the supply and demand equilibrium is healthy because inventory is much higher than it was in 2022”
“one one of the reasons why I can never get to 5.75 and under is because mortgage spreads needed to get back to normal”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Moashami to talk about some of the wild Fed news we've had over the last couple of days and inventory levels. First, I want to say thank you to our sponsor, Trust and Will, for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
What a crazy crazy crazy time we live in, man. It's the It feels like it's the show 24. Uh, every day we get some kind of headline news and we were going to talk about, you know, the inventory data on the tracker first, but then the Powell news broke and here we are.
You know, I just want to say we just got off an hour or 45 minute long webinar that we did just for our subscribers. If you guys listen to this podcast and you're not a subscriber, you are missing out. It is you get so much with it.
You get Logan's trackers every week, plus his takes on other things. Um, I write a newsletter just for them and they get those kind of uh special things where they could ask Logan questions in real time and he answers. So, that's a plug for that.
But, yes, indeed. Okay. First of all, your hair your hair has risen to new heights today.
I don't I don't know what happened. It's it's like Johnny Bravo hair today. You know, I I just made a video talking about the Pow Walt situation.
So, uh, just for everyone, it's not a coincidence that the mortgage back security market purchases were announced, then the subpoenas went to the Fed. Okay, I'm trying to get people to connect the dots here because we are talking about mortgage rates got better today, even with the 10-year yield up just one or two basis points.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- doj vs fed
- fed investigation
- housing inventory growth
- mortgage rates
- powell
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HousingWire
Watch the episode
Watch “The DOJ vs. the Fed, plus inventory and mortgage rates” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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