Episode summary
Positive housing demand and a preview of the Fed meeting
HousingWire Daily
· · 18 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Housing demand held up better than expected, with Logan Mohtashami pointing to weekly pending sales at a multi-year high, new listings above 80,000, and purchase applications showing double-digit week-over-week and year-over-year growth. He argued that the market has been stabilizing whenever mortgage rates stay near or below the low-6% range, and that the recent data show a spring season that looks stronger than feared despite war-related uncertainty and earlier volatility.
Mohtashami said the tracker is meant to show turning points before they show up in lagging data, and he framed the current setup as a reminder that housing can improve when several constraints ease at once. He also said healthy inventory growth can help keep prices in check over time, which should gradually improve affordability as wages outgrow home-price gains.
Looking ahead to the Fed meeting, he said this would be Jerome Powell’s last presser and that the committee’s tone may shift toward a new regime under Kevin Warsh. He expects inflation pressure from oil and the war to keep the Fed cautious, but said the labor market still gives policymakers room to hold steady for now.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami said weekly pending home sales hit a multi-year high, making this one of the strongest tracker reports since late 2022.
- He said new listings topped 80,000 and inventory growth remained healthy enough to help cap home-price gains.
- Mohtashami argued that purchase applications, new listings, active inventory, and pending sales all improved together, which is what a better spring should look like.
- He said the Fed is likely to hold rates steady, with inflation pressure from war-related oil prices keeping policy cautious.
- He expects Powell’s last press conference to signal a transition toward a different Fed tone under Kevin Warsh.
Notable quotes
“the headline was that housing demand was shockingly good and part of that was the pending sales which had a multi-year high”
“the fact that we had double digit purchase application data, weekly pending sales, new listings and active inventory all together”
“it just shows you get a little bit of stability. You get these other X variables out of the equation”
“65 to 75% of where the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates go is Fed policy”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Mohtashami to talk about the tracker and give us a preview of this Fed week. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this episode possible.
We are here in person at the gathering. So excited to be here this week. Logan, welcome back to the podcast.
It is wonderful to be here in Austin, Texas and what a wonderful weekend. I rarely get shocked with our weekend tracker, but that was a good one. You know, you and I have always talked about how my chef kiss the perfect trackers when you get rising inventory, rising new listings, rising sales.
The price cut percentage fell a little bit more than than I would like, but still it it considering everything that has gone on not bad at all. So, the headline was that housing demand was shockingly good and part of that was the pending sales which had a multi-year high. So, tell us what is going on there.
So, of course as always the housing market shifted when Sarah mid-June
Mid-June 2025 and that's just based on a principle that when the 10-year yield gets to a certain level and the spreads get mortgage rates to 6.64% and under uh usually we're coming from a 7% plus level, housing demand starts to pick up a little bit. It's the flow of data. We go from lower sales to a little bit higher sales, but December, 9-month high, we got that report in January.
So, we always tell everyone people, Christmas and New Year's, if it's middle of the week, we we didn't even write the tracker cuz we were protesting cuz we knew what was going to happen. And then everybody over read, you know, the data.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing demand
- fed meeting preview
- interest rates
- mortgage market
- housing market outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “Positive housing demand and a preview of the Fed meeting” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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