Episode summary
Why the housing market doesn’t turn all at once in 2026
HousingWire Daily
· · 26 min · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler · Guests: Rachel Bader
Summary
HousingWire’s data review argues that the housing market does not turn all at once; instead, sellers push pricing, buyers respond, and then the two sides fall out of sync. Rachel Bader says the current market is in a middle phase of negotiation rather than a full downturn, with friction showing up first in withdrawals, days on market, and price cuts. She frames today’s environment as a tug-of-war between sellers anchored to last year’s pricing and buyers facing affordability and uncertainty.
Bader says the clearest signals are regional and even zip-code specific, not national. The Northeast looks more balanced, with 70 to 95 days on market and 30% to 35% price cuts, while the Sunbelt shows much more pressure. Texas and the broader Southwest are seeing 80 to 105 days on market and up to 50% of homes cutting prices, and Phoenix stands out with nearly half of listings cutting prices and almost half withdrawing.
The West is more resilient than many expect, especially California. Bader points to San Francisco’s 1.3 million median price point, 28 median days on market, and only 12% withdraw, while Los Angeles shows 0% seller recalibration. Her bottom line is that pricing discipline and faster seller adjustments matter more than broad national averages, especially for agents guiding clients through a market that is still moving but unevenly.
Key takeaways
- Rachel Bader says the market is not turning all at once; it shifts when sellers and buyers fall out of sync.
- In the Northeast, Bader cites 70 to 95 days on market and 30% to 35% price cuts, with Pittsburgh showing roughly a third of listings cutting prices.
- In Texas and the broader Southwest, Bader says homes are taking 80 to 105 days on market and up to 50% are cutting prices.
- Phoenix looks like a reset market to Bader, with nearly half of listings cutting prices and almost half withdrawing.
- Bader says San Francisco remains resilient at a 1.3 million median price point and 28 median days on market, while Los Angeles has 0% seller recalibration.
Notable quotes
“the market just kind of turns all at once, and it really doesn't”
“sellers push pricing, buyers respond, and then they fall out of sync”
“we're really in a middle phase right now, where we're not on a downturn”
“it is really more of of tug-of-war happening right now”
“Nearly half of all of the listings in Phoenix are cutting their prices”
How the episode opens
Welcome everyone. My guest today is Rachel Bater, HousingWire's Vice President of Audience and Growth, to talk about housing market signals on the national and local level. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Total Expert, for making this episode possible.
Rachel, welcome back to the podcast. Thank you. I'm happy to be here.
I am happy to have you here. So, you play a lot of different roles at HousingWire. Actually, um you were just promoted.
Tell me what your new title is. Oh, well, thanks. I am now Vice President of Audience and Growth.
Very fun. Um as part of that, you do a lot of different things. One of the things is you are all in our data, the HousingWire data, the Altos data, and you really help us look for patterns.
You develop a lot of um AI solutions for us. And so, I really wanted to dig in on one of the stories that you wrote recently, where you're looking at what changes, what tenure changes you could look at um in the housing market and see where we are today and and what that data kind of shows us about that. Yeah, thanks.
Um I was super excited to kind of jump into this project, and it wasn't something that I was even necessarily planning to do. Um so, shout out to my own broker. After he read one of my other articles, he was like, "Rachel, don't forget about tenure trends.
And it's just an important message in housing in general. And so, I was uh very inspired. So, thanks, Dave, for sending me down this road to do this project.
And um it was very interesting to me um cuz I was kind of wondering like, I I understand like year-over-year data and in looking through um through trends that happen and and are cyclical in in the housing market.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing market
- 2026 housing signals
- housing data trends
- market lag/turning point
- housing market timing
Watch the episode
Watch “Why the housing market doesn’t turn all at once in 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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