Episode summary
Will Kevin Warsh be better for housing?
HousingWire Daily
· · Hosts: Sarah Wheeler, Tracey Velt, Allison LaForgia, Clayton Collins · Guests: Logan Mohtashami
Summary
Logan Mohtashami argues that Kevin Warsh would likely be better for housing than Jerome Powell, but only at the margins. He says a Fed chair cannot cut rates unilaterally, so the best outcome is that Warsh helps make the case for a few more cuts if inflation cools and the labor market weakens. In Logan’s view, the biggest housing benefit would come if Warsh pushes a more dovish tone around disinflation and supports the last two to three rate cuts left in the cycle.
He also says the housing backdrop has improved enough to matter. Purchase applications rose 10% week over week and 12% year over year, while pending home sales beat expectations, though both are still working from a very low base. Logan points to mortgage spreads as a key reason rates have been more manageable, with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates near levels that can support some demand.
Even so, he argues the ceiling for this cycle is limited. He expects rates near 6% to remain the sweet spot for a modest pickup in sales, but affordability, elevated inflation, and still-firm labor data mean a big housing rebound is unlikely unless conditions soften further.
Key takeaways
- Logan Mohtashami says Kevin Warsh would be better for housing than Jerome Powell mainly because he may support a more dovish Fed tone, not because he can cut rates alone.
- He expects Warsh could help deliver two to three more rate cuts if inflation and labor data soften, but not a dramatic easing cycle.
- Purchase applications rose 10% week over week and 12% year over year, which Logan sees as a constructive sign for near-term housing demand.
- Pending home sales beat estimates, but Logan says the report remains noisy and still points to a weak underlying market.
- Logan says the housing sweet spot is still around 5.99% to 6.25% mortgage rates, where demand can improve without a major drop in rates.
- He argues affordability remains a broader problem because housing tenure has lengthened sharply, limiting how quickly turnover can recover.
Notable quotes
“is Kevin Warsh going to be better for the housing market uh more than Jerome Powell”
“The Federal Reserve chairman cannot unilaterally cut rates”
“Kevin Warsh is somebody who criticizes the Federal Reserve a lot over the last eight years”
“I think, you know, maybe it's a much better uh Fed chairman for housing”
“purchase application data came out today. Positive 10% week-to-week. Uh double-digit year-over-year growth, positive 12%”
How the episode opens
Hello everyone. My name is Logan Moshami, lead analyst for HousingWire. And today's topic is going to be is Kevin Warsh going to be better for the housing market uh more than Jerome Powell?
We're also going to talk about pending home sales data and the recent purchase application data as well. However, before we dive into all that I want to thank our sponsor Total Expert for making this podcast possible. Well, everyone, here we are.
I am a solo act today. There is no Sarah Wheeler with her finger being pointed and telling me what to say, what not to say. So, I get to be myself a little bit more.
Sarah will return uh on next week when the gathering starts. But, today's topic Kevin Warsh. We had the congressional hearings.
Um for those who don't know, I was #anyonebutWarsh. So, wasn't a fan of him being a pick. A lot of people, even conservatives, were somewhat confused because he's he's tends to be very hawkish, but uh as soon as I start telling people, "Yeah, he's married to the Estee Lauder's granddaughter.
They've been friends with Trump for a while. So, you know, Trump likes loyalty. So, if you think about it just in that context, hopefully that makes more sense why Trump picked him.
Trump likes loyalty people, but now the question is, you know, you know, if Trump wants him in, he could just drop the lawsuit against Powell and then, you know, uh or the whatever that criminal case is. I don't know what they call it these days. Um Warsh is going to be the next Fed chair.
So, uh we're going to initially talk about is he going to be better for housing? Because for me personally, you know, uh the after President Trump won in uh November of 2024, Sarah and I did a podcast talk about the Trinity impact.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed rates
- housing market
- mortgage applications
- pending home sales
- fed ethics
Watch the episode
Watch “Will Kevin Warsh be better for housing?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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